Although the tropical Atlantic has become quite active in the past couple of weeks, a weakness between the Azores/Bermuda High and a Continental High over the Northeast has kept Tropical Storm Colin and Hurricane Danielle well out to sea and away from the east coast. The pattern is slowly changing and Hurricane Earl, while staying primarily at sea, is going to sideswipe the coast from North Carolina to Massachusetts before he moves inland over Nova Scotia.

At 5PM, Hurricane Earl was centered about 235 miles east of Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas. Earl was moving to the northwest at 17mph with sustained winds of 135mph and gusts to about 165mph - a Category IV major Hurricane. Hurricane Earl will continue to move northwest and then north as it comes under the influence of a trough of low pressure moving through the midwest that will eventually shove the storm off to the north northeast at an increased rate of forward speed while wind shear and cooler waters will slowly weaken the hurricane as it moves north northeast just offshore. A convergence zone could develop between the trough and the Hurricane and add some strong thunderstorms into the mix for western New England. Hurricane Earl should pass about 350 miles to the east northeast of east central Florida around midnight tonight. Earl should pass close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina in the early hours just after midnight on Friday morning and head north northeast - passing about 160 miles southeast of Springfield, Massachusetts, and 25 miles southeast of Chatham, Massachusetts, around midnight Friday night with tropical storm force winds extending about 125 miles to the northwest of the center at that time. Just a small shift to the west in the forecast track could bring hurricane and tropical storm conditions to a greater portion of the coast from North Carolina to southern New England. The following Warning and Watches are currently in effect:

Updated at 02/15Z, 11AM EDT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET
TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.
* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO MEDWAY HARBOUR.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT
JEFFERSON HARBOR.

Folks along the east coast from North Carolina to Nova Scotia need to closely monitor the progress and track adjustments of Hurricane Earl and be prepared to follow the instructions of local Emergency Management personnel.

Tropical Storm Fiona was located 145 miles northeast of St. Thomas at 5PM moving to the northwest at 20mph with sustained winds of 60mph. Fiona should begin to move more to the north and remain at sea and slowly weaken, dissipating in four or five days just south of Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Gaston is a new tropical cyclone located over 1,600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles moving west at 15mph with sustained winds of 40mph gusting to 50mph. Gaston should maintain more of a southerly track as a strong high pressure ridge re-establishes itself over the Atlantic basin. Gaston should move west to west northwest and increase to hurricane strength by Sunday. Probably a system that will need to be monitored closely next week.

Yet another strong tropical wave exited the west African coast today (Wednesday) and it should intensify to a Tropical Depression by Friday or Saturday. The next name on the list is Hermine. Busy, busy! If a storm is heading your way - are you ready?
ED

General Characteristics:
The tropical Atlantic seems to be performing as expected, but there are some anomalies. A high pressure ridge off the southeast coast of the United States has shoved uncommonly dry air southward into the central Bahamas. Dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been a semi-permanent feature in the tropical eastern Atlantic this season and tropical waves that exit the west African continent have been stifled by that feature. An abundance of early season upper level lows and their associated shear zones have finally tailed off and the Basin has become a little more favorable for tropical cyclone development.

Hurricane Earl:
Although currently maintained as a Category IV storm, Earl is wrapping up an Eyewall Replacement Cycle and the sustained winds probably dipped to about 105 knots during the cycle, or Category III – still a Major Hurricane. At 31/15Z, Earl was located about 205 miles east of Grand Turk Island, still moving to the west northwest at a slower forward speed of 10 knots. Tropical Storm Warnings are posted for the Turks & Caicos Islands and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the southeastern Bahamas. Earl will soon have to contend with some mighty dry air to his northwest and I’d anticipate a gradual weakening of the hurricane as the storm pushes northwestward. Earl should pass about 250 to 300 miles (probably closer to 300 miles) east of east central Florida on Thursday morning, be located just off the Outer Banks of North Carolina early Thursday morning and offshore Cape Cod early Saturday morning with landfall in Nova Scotia early Saturday afternoon – IF he can survive the dry air and increasing windshear. High waves with some coastal flooding and dangerous rip currents from the Bahamas and Florida northward into the Canadian Maritimes as the hurricane passes close to shore. Just a slight track adjustment to the west could bring dangerous hurricane conditions onshore, so folks from eastern North Carolina to eastern Massachusetts should monitor Hurricane Earl for any forecast changes. Its possible that Tropical Storm Watches could be initiated for some of those locations later today or this evening.

Tropical Storm Fiona:
At 31/15Z, TS Fiona was located about 440 miles east of the Leeward Islands moving west to west northwest at 20 knots. Sustained winds are still at 35 knots and not much change is expected with dry air still limiting structural integrity. Fiona should eventually move northwest into a weakness in the Atlantic ridge that will have been enhanced by the northward progression of Hurricane Earl. Fiona should pass just to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands and remain well offshore of the eastern CONUS. Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches are posted for various locations in the Leeward Islands and these notifications will change as Fiona gets closer to the Islands.

Invest 98L:
Located southwest of the Cape Verde Islands near 12N 30W at 31/12Z, Invest 98L was moving to the west northwest at 15 knots with sustained winds of 25 knots. On Monday night, dry air to the north fully exposed a very well developed circulation center. The system should continue moving to the west to west northwest for the remainder of the week, but additional development will be on the slow side until about Friday – due to the proximity of the SAL to its north. Development chances should improve toward the end of the week.

Africa:
At 31/12Z, two well-developed tropical waves over Africa were located at 15N 4W and 15N 10E. The waves are a bit too far to the north and they will eventually exit the west African coast right into the teeth of the SAL, i.e., development not very likely.

Except for a convective flare-up in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, the remainder of the Gulf and the entire Caribbean Sea have no tropical activity.
ED

I’ll start this off with a segment from the original ‘Statistics’ Blog back on August 13, 2006, when the season was running a little slow, when there had been a storm in June, July and August at that time, and when CSU had anticipated a total of 15 named storms for that season:

“I started to wonder what Climatology would think about this season if the next storm this year was not named until after August 25th - and the answers are interesting (if you like numbers). In the past 126 seasons, 74 of them did not have the 4th named storm until after August 25th. Nothing unusual there - seems like a common event, but what do the season totals look like when that happens?

Another interesting answer. The average season total is 8/5/2, with the highest seasons at 14/6/4 (1953) and 13/10/8 (1950). This means that in order for Colorado State (Dr Gray et al) to hit its revised forecast of 15 named storms this season, the next named storm must occur before August 26th...OR...the Atlantic basin must set a new record for season activity after August 25th.”

So here we are with another close to average starting season playing against an ultra-high seasonal forecast – and with the dialogue that a disparity of those numbers often generates. The problem is not so much in the season itself – so far its about average and it will probably end up that way. It is interesting to note that this year its not just the Atlantic basin that seems a little on the slow side – it’s the entire Northern Hemisphere with limited activity so far in EASTPAC and WESTPAC tropical cyclone areas.

As of August 20th, with regard to calendar days, the season is 44% complete. From the climatological standpoint of the total number of storms (on average) by August 20th vs the total number of storms overall, the season is 42% complete. Splitting the difference infers that there is 57% of the season remaining.

If, at the beginning of the season, your forecast was for 18 named storms this year (similar to the forecasts from CSU, TSR, WSI and NOAA), you now have 57% of the remaining season to achieve 83% of your forecasted total. With a forecast of 14 named storms, you have 57% of what remains of the season to develop about 78% of your storm total. While it is true that these statistics are results compared against an average season, it is also true that the season seldom extends beyond November 30th.

For reference purposes the 2006 season ended up at 9/4/2.
ED

I’ve observed some comments about the lack of tropical cyclone activity so far this season when compared against the high pre-season storm total forecasts. While I was one of the few that felt that this season would not be hyperactive (and I haven’t changed my thoughts on that), the season is far from over – in fact it has barely begun.

In the past (1880-2009), by July 25th only 13.3% of the total number of storms (1 May – 30 Nov) had been observed. That means the season still has about 87% to go, thus it is premature to suggest that the season is over. However, it is not premature to suggest that a hyperactive season of 18 or more named storms may not occur. Conditions in the Atlantic Basin are still quite hostile with significant areas of subtropical windshear, evidence of an active Saharan Air Layer (although it looks like it could finally be starting to wane), and a equatorial easterly low-level tradewind that continues to dive to the west southwest off the west African continent. Until these negative factors modify, the likelihood of having a new storm every week is pretty slim.

If you look at all of the storms since 1880 (all 1,223 of them) you don’t reach the halfway point in the season until September 16th. NHC defines that midpoint date as September 10th, but they only examine the totals during the satellite era (starting in 1966, although the era actually started in mid 1964). Twelve of the most active seasons (75% of the total) and one of the least active seasons (5% of the total) have occurred during the satellite era. Of the 130 seasons from 1880 – 2009, 12% had a seasonal total of 14 or more storms and 14% had a seasonal storm total of 5 or less. Since highly active seasons are just as uncommon as highly inactive seasons, the forecast skill for predicting either extreme is rather poor.

The average number of storms for the entire period (1880-2009) is 9. Using that long-term period, the average date for the first storm was July 3rd, the average date for the second storm was August 1st and the average date for the third storm was August 18th, so currently we are still ahead of the average based on the activity thus far this season. From 1965 – 2009 (that satellite era again) there have been exactly 500 storms in 45 years – and that’s where the current average of 11 named storms per year comes from.

The most active seasons were: 2005 (28), 1933 (21), 1887 and 1995 (19), 1969 (18), 1936, 2003 and 2008 (16), 1916, 2000, 2001, 2004 and 2007 (15), and 1953, 1990 and 1998 (14).

The least active seasons were: 1914 (1), 1930 (2), 1929 (3), 1883, 1884, 1890, 1917, 1925 and 1983 (4), and 1902, 1904, 1905, 1907, 1910, 1919, 1920, 1922, 1939 and 1962 (5).

Its interesting to note that low activity seasons can cluster into periods of multi-year inactivity just like active seasons can cluster into periods of multi-year increased activity – which does lend some support to the notion of a 25 year cycle (or a 20 year cycle, or whatever it turns out to be). In the long-range forecasting weather business, patience prevails.
ED

I’ll start this with a re-post of an article from June12, 2007:

“About a month ago I did a little research from a slightly different angle. Since ENSO conditions are only available from 1950, I decided to check El Nino Region 3.4 anomalies against all of the very active seasons since 1950. I defined an active season as 14 named storms or more (there have been 10 of these) and ENSO neutral conditions as anything from +0.5C to -0.5C. I used the average sea surface temperature anomaly for the three month period of May, June and July (figuring that a three month lag was reasonable between Pacific ENSO conditions and Atlantic activity). The results coincide nicely with the findings of Ostro & Lyons.

1953...14 storms...+0.4 anomaly
1969...17 storms...+0.4 anomaly
1990...14 storms...+0.3 anomaly
1995...19 storms...+0.1 anomaly
1998...14 storms...+0.1 anomaly
2000...14 storms...-0.6 anomaly (weakening La Nina)
2001...15 storms...+0.1 anomaly
2003...15 storms.....0.0 anomaly
2004...15 storms...+0.4 anomaly
2005...28 storms...+0.3 anomaly”

Since that 2007 post, we can add 2007 and 2008 to the list (and they both continued the association of an ENSO neutral SST anomaly in May/June/July with high-activity seasons). Note that it does not mean that ENSO neutral conditions in M/J/J will always yield a high-activity season – it just means that previous high-activity seasons (since 1950) almost always occurred when ENSO neutral conditions (-0.5C to +0.5C) were observed at the beginning of the season.

2007…15 storms…-0.1 anomaly
2008…16 storms…-0.4 anomaly

A few months ago, the April/May/June ENSO SST anomaly was forecast to be 0.0C, but it came in at +0.3C. The May/June/July forecast was -0.5C but so far it looks like it will end up closer to -0.2C. The implication is that the upcoming La Nina event was overforecasted, i.e., too soon and too strong.

There is no previous season since 1950 that matches the current season SST anomaly to date, and the SST anomaly outlook for the remainder of the current season. 1998 is about the closest season for an SST trend except that 1998 started with a stronger El Nino and ended with a strong La Nina. The storm totals in 1998 were 14/10/3. 1970 somewhat matches the expected SST outlook for the remainder of this season and the storm totals in 1970 were 10/5/2, but 1970 did not start with a robust El Nino.
ED

Not too long after Cat II Hurricane Alex moved ashore in northeast Mexico yesterday evening, ‘stormtiger’ asked “Does a Cat II hurricane in June make a severe hurricane season more likely? Well, the short answer (with qualifications) is ‘No’. The qualifications are that there were only two other seasons with a Cat II Hurricane in June – 1886 (12 total storms) and 1906 (11 total storms). However, if you expand the database to include any Hurricane in May or June, you can then identify 25 seasons since 1886 … and the long answer is still ‘No’.

Those years with early season hurricanes were 1886, 1888, 1889, 1893, 1902, 1906, 1908, 1913, 1921, 1929, 1933, 1934, 1936, 1945, 1951, 1954, 1957, 1959, 1966, 1968, 1970, 1972, 1982, 1986 and 1995. Some of the seasons provide for some interesting statistics. In 1886 there were 3 Cat II Hurricanes in June – all of them with a maximum sustained windspeed of 85 knots. 1889 had a Cat I in May (70 knots) and a Cat I in June (65 knots). 1906 had a Cat II in June at 90 knots. 1908 had a Cat II in MARCH at 90 knots and a Cat I in May at 65 knots. 1929 had 3 storms for the season – all hurricanes – with a Cat I in June (75 knots). 1936 had a Cat I Hurricane in June (70 knots) which was the third storm of the season – same thing happened in 1959 (also 70 knots). 1945 had a Cat III June storm (100 knots). 1951 had Hurricane Able at Cat III (100 knots) in May. 1966 had Cat III Hurricane Alma in June (110 knots), and Alma shows up again in 1970 in May (70 knots). 1968 had two Cat I’s in June – Abby and Brenda (both at 65 knots). Finally, the monster of all early season storms was Hurricane Audrey in June, 1957, at Cat IV (125 knots).

The average number of named storms for a season with a Hurricane in May and/or June is 10, with a range from a high of 21 in 1933 to a low of 3 in 1929. Of the 25 seasons, 11 had normal seasonal storm totals (10-12), 11 had below normal totals (9 or less), and 3 had above normal totals (13 or more). During those 25 seasons with a Hurricane in May or June, Florida was hit by a Tropical Storm (or Hurricane) 84% of the seasons, and Texas was hit by a Tropical Storm (or Hurricane) 72% of the seasons. In those 25 years a total of 46 storms hit Florida and 26 storms hit Texas.
ED

Part One
This effort started out as an exercise to determine if the Atlantic Ocean indeed had a strong multi-decadal signal in its hurricane activity based on multi-decadal variations in the strength of the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation (THC) or was the whole concept of this decades long pattern either nonexistent or was it something that could not be proven (at least not without conjecture, i.e. a lack of firm definition). However the effort eventually ended up with better insight into the likelihood of a very active season (or not) since the verification of a multi-decade pattern of increased hurricane activity must look to the number of named storms for confirmation that a pattern indeed exists.

If there is roughly a 25 year pattern of increased tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin, then the seasonal numbers should reflect that pattern. If the current strong signal started in 1995 and has continued through at least 2008 do the number of storms reflect that? The answer, of course, is Yes with 9 of the 15 seasons having produced 14 named storms or more. Does the climatological record easily define the previous strong signal? This time the answer is Probably Yes. The period seems to be 1932 to 1945 with 8 of the 14 seasons producing above normal activity but only two seasons with 14 or more named storms (1933 and 1936). CSU defines the period from 1950 to 1969 as ‘active’, but only two seasons had 14 or more named storms in that 20-season period (1953 and 1969), and only 9 of the 20 seasons had above average activity – which is nothing more than average activity over a 20 season period and not indicative of a strong THC. With 13 named systems in 1949, I’m at a loss as to why CSU didn’t start their defined ‘active’ period in 1949 vice 1950.

Does the climatological record hint at another 10 to 15 year period of increased activity that might suggest another earlier strong THC? This time the answer is No. Is there a well-defined multi-decadal pattern of increased hurricane activity in the historical record? Again the answer is No, although with a little imagination it might be easier to define a 25 year period of inactivity between shorter periods of activity. The current period of activity is not in question – it exists, but it seems to be linked to something that cannot be proven. Some additional unanswered questions include: What defines the ‘end’ of an active period? How many years are needed to meet a multi-decadal definition? How many years in an active period must produce above-average storm totals in order to define ‘active’? It is one thing to state that periods of increased Atlantic Basin storm activity are associated with a strong THC – but it remains nothing more than a theory until these questions (and I’m sure there are others) are answered to the satisfaction of the scientific community as a whole. This is not a criticism – rather more of a concern for additional definition.

Part Two
While plowing through the seasonal totals to develop my thoughts reflected above in Part One, it provided the data to examine the probabilities for active seasons – something that NOAA, CSU, TSR, WSI and many of you believe will happen this season. Our annual early season outlook for expected storm totals generated 30 useable responses with an average expectation of 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. The inputs ranged from a low of 9/5/2 to a high of 29/16/7.

Since 1885 there have been 8 seasons with 16 or more tropical storms or hurricanes – or 6.4% of the 125 seasons. Those highly active seasons were 1887, 1933, 1936, 1969, 1995, 2003, 2005 and 2008. During these seasons, an average of 5 storms made landfall on the U.S. coastline (the range was from 3 to 7). Between June 1st and November 30th there are 26 weeks that define the hurricane season. Sometimes storms form earlier than June (but not this season) and, with less frequency, the season can sometimes extend into December. Using the 26-week season as a standard baseline, if you forecast a seasonal total of 26 storms you are forecasting the development of an average of one storm per week for the entire season and thus far, 2005 was the only season to achieve that level of ultra-high activity. Looking at the dates of the first and second storms of these high-activity seasons provides some insight into the odds for having another season with 16 or more named storms. If the first storm doesn’t develop by mid June and the second storm doesn’t develop by the first week in July, the chances of having a season with 16 or more named storms is one in 125 or 0.8% (eight tenths of one percent).

Since 70% of the responses predicted at least 14 named storms, I also reviewed the climatological record for that level of moderately high activity. Since 1885 there were 8 additional seasons with at least 14 or 15 tropical storms or hurricanes so a season with 14 or more storms has occurred during 16 of the 125 seasons – or 12.8%. These moderately active seasons with 14 or 15 storm totals were 1916, 1953, 1990, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2004 and 2007. These seasons also had an average of 5 storms making U.S. landfall (the range was from 1 to 10). Once again looking at the dates of the first and second storms for these additional moderately active seasons suggested that if the first storm does not develop by the last week in July and the second storm does not develop by the second week in August, the chances of having a season with 14 or 15 named storms is the same, i.e., one in 125 or 0.8%.

Of course any new season can change climatology and the statistical record, but these dates are at least a good starting point for you to determine the likelihood of success for your own personal seasonal forecast.
Good Luck,
ED

An earthquake with a magnitude of 8.8 occurred at 1:34AM EST on Saturday (2/27) near the coast of Chile at 36.1S 72.6W. A Tsunami with the potential for maximum severity was generated and a Pacific-wide Tsunami Warning has been issued. The first Tsunami wave is expected to reach the Hawaiian Islands at 11:19AM HST (4:19PM EST). Tsunami warning sirens were sounded at 6AM HST (a few minutes ago) although many residents are already procuring fresh water and other supplies and they are evacuating the coastal areas.

TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 10
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
447 AM HST SAT FEB 27 2010

TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII

SUBJECT - TSUNAMI WARNING SUPPLEMENT

A TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0834 PM HST 26 FEB 2010
COORDINATES - 36.1 SOUTH 72.6 WEST
LOCATION - NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
MAGNITUDE - 8.8 MOMENT

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
------------------- ----- ------ ----- --------------- -----
QUEPOS CR 0.0N 9.4E 1418Z 0.24M / 0.8FT 44MIN
BALTRA GALAPAGS EC 0.4S 90.3W 1313Z 0.25M / 0.8FT 36MIN
EASTER CL 27.2S 109.5W 1205Z 0.35M / 1.1FT 52MIN
ANCUD CL 41.9S 73.8W 0838Z 0.62M / 2.0FT 84MIN
CALLAO LA-PUNTA PE 12.1S 77.2W 1029Z 0.36M / 1.2FT 30MIN
ARICA CL 18.5S 70.3W 1008Z 0.94M / 3.1FT 42MIN
IQUIQUE CL 20.2S 70.1W 0907Z 0.28M / 0.9FT 68MIN
ANTOFAGASTA CL 23.2S 70.4W 0941Z 0.49M / 1.6FT 52MIN
DART LIMA 32412 18.0S 86.4W 0941Z 0.24M / 0.8FT 36MIN
CALDERA CL 27.1S 70.8W 0843Z 0.45M / 1.5FT 20MIN
TALCAHUANO CL 36.7S 73.4W 0653Z 2.34M / 7.7FT 88MIN
COQUIMBO CL 30.0S 71.3W 0852Z 1.32M / 4.3FT 30MIN
CORRAL CL 39.9S 73.4W 0739Z 0.90M / 2.9FT 16MIN
SAN FELIX CL 26.3S 80.1W 0815Z 0.53M / 1.7FT 08MIN
VALPARAISO CL 33.0S 71.6W 0708Z 1.29M / 4.2FT 20MIN

LAT - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
LON - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
PER - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.

EVALUATION

A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED THAT COULD CAUSE DAMAGE ALONG
COASTLINES OF ALL ISLANDS IN THE STATE OF HAWAII. URGENT ACTION
SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT LIVES AND PROPERTY.

A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF LONG OCEAN WAVES. EACH INDIVIDUAL WAVE
CREST CAN LAST 5 TO 15 MINUTES OR MORE AND EXTENSIVELY FLOOD
COASTAL AREAS. THE DANGER CAN CONTINUE FOR MANY HOURS AFTER THE
INITIAL WAVE AS SUBSEQUENT WAVES ARRIVE. TSUNAMI WAVE HEIGHTS
CANNOT BE PREDICTED AND THE FIRST WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST.
TSUNAMI WAVES EFFICIENTLY WRAP AROUND ISLANDS. ALL SHORES ARE AT
RISK NO MATTER WHICH DIRECTION THEY FACE. THE TROUGH OF A TSUNAMI
WAVE MAY TEMPORARILY EXPOSE THE SEAFLOOR BUT THE AREA WILL
QUICKLY FLOOD AGAIN. EXTREMELY STRONG AND UNUSUAL NEARSHORE
CURRENTS CAN ACCOMPANY A TSUNAMI. DEBRIS PICKED UP AND CARRIED
BY A TSUNAMI AMPLIFIES ITS DESTRUCTIVE POWER. SIMULTANEOUS HIGH
TIDES OR HIGH SURF CAN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE TSUNAMI HAZARD.

THE ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME IN HAWAII OF THE FIRST TSUNAMI WAVE IS

1119 AM HST SAT 27 FEB 2010

MESSAGES WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.


Here is the latest Warning message for the entire Pacific basin:

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 010
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 1545Z 27 FEB 2010

THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.

... A WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT ...

A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR

CHILE / PERU / ECUADOR / COLOMBIA / ANTARCTICA / PANAMA /
COSTA RICA / NICARAGUA / PITCAIRN / HONDURAS / EL SALVADOR /
GUATEMALA / FR. POLYNESIA / MEXICO / COOK ISLANDS / KIRIBATI /
KERMADEC IS / NIUE / NEW ZEALAND / TONGA / AMERICAN SAMOA /
SAMOA / JARVIS IS. / WALLIS-FUTUNA / TOKELAU / FIJI /
AUSTRALIA / HAWAII / PALMYRA IS. / TUVALU / VANUATU /
HOWLAND-BAKER / NEW CALEDONIA / JOHNSTON IS. / SOLOMON IS. /
NAURU / MARSHALL IS. / MIDWAY IS. / KOSRAE / PAPUA NEW GUINEA /
POHNPEI / WAKE IS. / CHUUK / RUSSIA / MARCUS IS. / INDONESIA /
N. MARIANAS / GUAM / YAP / BELAU / JAPAN / PHILIPPINES /
CHINESE TAIPEI

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0634Z 27 FEB 2010
COORDINATES - 36.1 SOUTH 72.6 WEST
DEPTH - 55 KM
LOCATION - NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
MAGNITUDE - 8.8

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
------------------- ----- ------ ----- --------------- -----
QUEPOS CR 0.0N 9.4E 1416Z 0.24M / 0.8FT 52MIN
BALTRA GALAPAGS EC 0.4S 90.3W 1452Z 0.35M / 1.2FT 14MIN
DART MARQUESAS 5140 8.5S 125.0W 1519Z 0.28M / 0.9FT 48MIN
EASTER CL 27.2S 109.5W 1205Z 0.35M / 1.1FT 52MIN
ANCUD CL 41.9S 73.8W 0838Z 0.62M / 2.0FT 84MIN
CALLAO LA-PUNTA PE 12.1S 77.2W 1029Z 0.36M / 1.2FT 30MIN
ARICA CL 18.5S 70.3W 1008Z 0.94M / 3.1FT 42MIN
IQUIQUE CL 20.2S 70.1W 0907Z 0.28M / 0.9FT 68MIN
ANTOFAGASTA CL 23.2S 70.4W 0941Z 0.49M / 1.6FT 52MIN
CALDERA CL 27.1S 70.8W 0843Z 0.45M / 1.5FT 20MIN
TALCAHUANO CL 36.7S 73.4W 0653Z 2.34M / 7.7FT 88MIN
COQUIMBO CL 30.0S 71.3W 0852Z 1.32M / 4.3FT 30MIN
CORRAL CL 39.9S 73.4W 0739Z 0.90M / 2.9FT 16MIN
SAN FELIX CL 26.3S 80.1W 0815Z 0.53M / 1.7FT 08MIN
VALPARAISO CL 33.0S 71.6W 0708Z 1.29M / 4.2FT 20MIN

LAT - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
LON - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
PER - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.

EVALUATION

SEA LEVEL READINGS CONFIRM THAT A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED
WHICH COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE. AUTHORITIES SHOULD TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THIS THREAT. THIS CENTER WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEA LEVEL DATA TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT AND
SEVERITY OF THE THREAT.

A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE FIRST WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. TSUNAMI WAVE HEIGHTS CANNOT BE PREDICTED AND CAN VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG A COAST DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. THE TIME FROM
ONE TSUNAMI WAVE TO THE NEXT CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO AN HOUR, AND
THE THREAT CAN CONTINUE FOR MANY HOURS AS MULTIPLE WAVES ARRIVE.

FOR ALL AREAS - WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES ARE OBSERVED FOR TWO HOURS
AFTER THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT
OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME
THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS. AS LOCAL
CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE
ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTS
WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

LOCATION FORECAST POINT COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME
-------------------------------- ------------ ------------
CHILE TALCAHUANO 36.7S 73.1W 0729Z 27 FEB
VALPARAISO 33.0S 71.6W 0739Z 27 FEB
COQUIMBO 29.9S 71.3W 0801Z 27 FEB
CORRAL 39.8S 73.5W 0810Z 27 FEB
CALDERA 27.1S 70.8W 0821Z 27 FEB
ANTOFAGASTA 23.3S 70.4W 0844Z 27 FEB
IQUIQUE 20.2S 70.1W 0911Z 27 FEB
ARICA 18.5S 70.3W 0929Z 27 FEB
GOLFO DE PENAS 47.1S 74.9W 0934Z 27 FEB
PUERTO MONTT 41.5S 73.0W 1052Z 27 FEB
EASTER IS. 27.1S 109.4W 1205Z 27 FEB
PUNTA ARENAS 53.2S 70.9W 1213Z 27 FEB
PUERTO WILLIAMS 54.8S 68.2W 1404Z 27 FEB
PERU MOLLENDO 17.1S 72.0W 0936Z 27 FEB
SAN JUAN 15.3S 75.2W 0952Z 27 FEB
LA PUNTA 12.1S 77.2W 1045Z 27 FEB
PIMENTAL 6.9S 80.0W 1114Z 27 FEB
TALARA 4.6S 81.5W 1127Z 27 FEB
CHIMBOTE 9.0S 78.8W 1132Z 27 FEB
ECUADOR LA LIBERTAD 2.2S 81.2W 1202Z 27 FEB
ESMERELDAS 1.2N 79.8W 1234Z 27 FEB
BALTRA IS. 0.5S 90.3W 1313Z 27 FEB
COLOMBIA TUMACO 1.8N 78.9W 1253Z 27 FEB
BAHIA SOLANO 6.3N 77.4W 1327Z 27 FEB
BUENAVENTURA 3.8N 77.2W 1340Z 27 FEB
ANTARCTICA THURSTON IS. 72.0S 100.0W 1312Z 27 FEB
CAPE ADARE 71.0S 170.0E 1650Z 27 FEB
PANAMA PUERTO PINA 7.4N 78.1W 1331Z 27 FEB
PUNTA MALA 7.5N 79.9W 1334Z 27 FEB
PUNTA BURICA 8.0N 82.8W 1340Z 27 FEB
BALBOA HTS. 9.0N 79.6W 1457Z 27 FEB
COSTA RICA CABO MATAPALO 8.4N 83.3W 1344Z 27 FEB
PUERTO QUEPOS 9.4N 84.2W 1417Z 27 FEB
CABO SAN ELENA 10.9N 86.0W 1452Z 27 FEB
NICARAGUA SAN JUAN DL SUR 11.2N 85.9W 1452Z 27 FEB
PUERTO SANDINO 12.2N 86.8W 1512Z 27 FEB
CORINTO 12.5N 87.2W 1520Z 27 FEB
PITCAIRN PITCAIRN IS. 25.1S 130.1W 1455Z 27 FEB
HONDURAS AMAPALA 13.2N 87.6W 1520Z 27 FEB
EL SALVADOR ACAJUTLA 13.6N 89.8W 1531Z 27 FEB
GUATEMALA SIPICATE 13.9N 91.2W 1539Z 27 FEB
FR. POLYNESIA RIKITEA 23.1S 135.0W 1542Z 27 FEB
HIVA OA 10.0S 139.0W 1723Z 27 FEB
PAPEETE 17.5S 149.6W 1748Z 27 FEB
MEXICO PUERTO MADERO 14.8N 92.5W 1552Z 27 FEB
ACAPULCO 16.9N 99.9W 1615Z 27 FEB
MANZANILLO 19.1N 104.3W 1709Z 27 FEB
SOCORRO 18.8N 111.0W 1719Z 27 FEB
CABO SAN LUCAS 22.8N 110.0W 1749Z 27 FEB
MAZATLAN 23.2N 106.4W 1753Z 27 FEB
PUNTA ABREOJOS 26.7N 113.6W 1856Z 27 FEB
ENSENADA 31.8N 116.8W 2016Z 27 FEB
COOK ISLANDS RAROTONGA 21.2S 159.8W 1814Z 27 FEB
PENRYN IS. 8.9S 157.8W 1925Z 27 FEB
PUKAPUKA IS. 10.8S 165.9W 1950Z 27 FEB
KIRIBATI FLINT IS. 11.4S 151.8W 1836Z 27 FEB
MALDEN IS. 3.9S 154.9W 1934Z 27 FEB
CHRISTMAS IS. 2.0N 157.5W 2028Z 27 FEB
KANTON IS. 2.8S 171.7W 2112Z 27 FEB
TARAWA IS. 1.5N 173.0E 2258Z 27 FEB
KERMADEC IS RAOUL IS. 29.2S 177.9W 1912Z 27 FEB
NIUE NIUE IS. 19.0S 170.0W 1918Z 27 FEB
NEW ZEALAND EAST CAPE 37.7S 178.5E 1918Z 27 FEB
GISBORNE 38.7S 178.0E 1922Z 27 FEB
DUNEDIN 45.9S 170.5E 1952Z 27 FEB
NAPIER 39.5S 176.9E 1954Z 27 FEB
WELLINGTON 41.3S 174.8E 1955Z 27 FEB
MILFORD SOUND 44.6S 167.9E 2005Z 27 FEB
NORTH CAPE 34.4S 173.3E 2010Z 27 FEB
BLUFF 46.6S 168.3E 2030Z 27 FEB
LYTTELTON 43.6S 172.7E 2040Z 27 FEB
AUCKLAND(E) 36.7S 175.0E 2056Z 27 FEB
NELSON 41.3S 173.3E 2127Z 27 FEB
WESTPORT 41.8S 171.6E 2129Z 27 FEB
AUCKLAND(W) 37.1S 174.2E 2140Z 27 FEB
NEW PLYMOUTH 39.1S 174.1E 2219Z 27 FEB
TONGA NUKUALOFA 21.0S 175.2W 1940Z 27 FEB
AMERICAN SAMOA PAGO PAGO 14.3S 170.7W 1951Z 27 FEB
SAMOA APIA 13.8S 171.8W 2006Z 27 FEB
JARVIS IS. JARVIS IS. 0.4S 160.1W 2026Z 27 FEB
WALLIS-FUTUNA WALLIS IS. 13.2S 176.2W 2028Z 27 FEB
TOKELAU NUKUNONU IS. 9.2S 171.8W 2030Z 27 FEB
FIJI SUVA 18.1S 178.4E 2104Z 27 FEB
AUSTRALIA HOBART 43.3S 147.6E 2105Z 27 FEB
SYDNEY 33.9S 151.4E 2146Z 27 FEB
BRISBANE 27.2S 153.3E 2310Z 27 FEB
GLADSTONE 23.8S 151.4E 0101Z 28 FEB
CAIRNS 16.7S 145.8E 0159Z 28 FEB
MACKAY 21.1S 149.3E 0251Z 28 FEB
HAWAII HILO 19.7N 155.1W 2119Z 27 FEB
HONOLULU 21.3N 157.9W 2152Z 27 FEB
NAWILIWILI 22.0N 159.4W 2158Z 27 FEB
PALMYRA IS. PALMYRA IS. 6.3N 162.4W 2124Z 27 FEB
TUVALU FUNAFUTI IS. 7.9S 178.5E 2125Z 27 FEB
VANUATU ANATOM IS. 20.2S 169.9E 2137Z 27 FEB
ESPERITU SANTO 15.1S 167.3E 2235Z 27 FEB
HOWLAND-BAKER HOWLAND IS. 0.6N 176.6W 2154Z 27 FEB
NEW CALEDONIA NOUMEA 22.3S 166.5E 2218Z 27 FEB
JOHNSTON IS. JOHNSTON IS. 16.7N 169.5W 2245Z 27 FEB
SOLOMON IS. KIRAKIRA 10.4S 161.9E 2321Z 27 FEB
MUNDA 8.4S 157.2E 0001Z 28 FEB
GHATERE 7.8S 159.2E 0001Z 28 FEB
AUKI 8.8S 160.6E 0004Z 28 FEB
HONIARA 9.3S 160.0E 0004Z 28 FEB
FALAMAE 7.4S 155.6E 0017Z 28 FEB
PANGGOE 6.9S 157.2E 0020Z 28 FEB
NAURU NAURU 0.5S 166.9E 2331Z 27 FEB
MARSHALL IS. MAJURO 7.1N 171.4E 2339Z 27 FEB
KWAJALEIN 8.7N 167.7E 0013Z 28 FEB
ENIWETOK 11.4N 162.3E 0102Z 28 FEB
MIDWAY IS. MIDWAY IS. 28.2N 177.4W 0022Z 28 FEB
KOSRAE KOSRAE IS. 5.5N 163.0E 0026Z 28 FEB
PAPUA NEW GUINE AMUN 6.0S 154.7E 0036Z 28 FEB
KIETA 6.1S 155.6E 0038Z 28 FEB
RABAUL 4.2S 152.3E 0102Z 28 FEB
PORT MORESBY 9.3S 146.9E 0123Z 28 FEB
LAE 6.8S 147.0E 0128Z 28 FEB
KAVIENG 2.5S 150.7E 0135Z 28 FEB
MADANG 5.2S 145.8E 0154Z 28 FEB
MANUS IS. 2.0S 147.5E 0214Z 28 FEB
WEWAK 3.5S 143.6E 0237Z 28 FEB
VANIMO 2.6S 141.3E 0258Z 28 FEB
POHNPEI POHNPEI IS. 7.0N 158.2E 0111Z 28 FEB
WAKE IS. WAKE IS. 19.3N 166.6E 0112Z 28 FEB
CHUUK CHUUK IS. 7.4N 151.8E 0213Z 28 FEB
RUSSIA MEDNNY IS 54.7N 167.4E 0236Z 28 FEB
UST KAMCHATSK 56.1N 162.6E 0302Z 28 FEB
PETROPAVLOVSK K 53.2N 159.6E 0333Z 28 FEB
URUP IS 46.1N 150.5E 0354Z 28 FEB
SEVERO KURILSK 50.8N 156.1E 0410Z 28 FEB
MARCUS IS. MARCUS IS. 24.3N 154.0E 0248Z 28 FEB
INDONESIA JAYAPURA 2.4S 140.8E 0302Z 28 FEB
WARSA 0.6S 135.8E 0345Z 28 FEB
MANOKWARI 0.8S 134.2E 0405Z 28 FEB
SORONG 0.8S 131.1E 0433Z 28 FEB
BEREBERE 2.5N 128.7E 0452Z 28 FEB
PATANI 0.4N 128.8E 0505Z 28 FEB
GEME 4.6N 126.8E 0512Z 28 FEB
N. MARIANAS SAIPAN 15.3N 145.8E 0303Z 28 FEB
GUAM GUAM 13.4N 144.7E 0311Z 28 FEB
YAP YAP IS. 9.5N 138.1E 0352Z 28 FEB
BELAU MALAKAL 7.3N 134.5E 0413Z 28 FEB
JAPAN KUSHIRO 42.9N 144.3E 0435Z 28 FEB
KATSUURA 35.1N 140.3E 0453Z 28 FEB
HACHINOHE 40.5N 141.5E 0509Z 28 FEB
SHIMIZU 32.8N 133.0E 0557Z 28 FEB
OKINAWA 26.2N 127.8E 0610Z 28 FEB
PHILIPPINES DAVAO 6.8N 125.7E 0527Z 28 FEB
PALANAN 17.1N 122.6E 0559Z 28 FEB
LEGASPI 13.2N 123.8E 0604Z 28 FEB
CHINESE TAIPEI HUALIEN 24.0N 121.6E 0626Z 28 FEB
HUALIEN 24.0N 121.7E 0626Z 28 FEB
CHILUNG 25.2N 121.8E 0654Z 28 FEB
TAITUNG 22.7N 121.2E 0655Z 28 FEB

BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
THE TSUNAMI WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

THE WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS
FOR ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...OREGON...CALIFORNIA.


Here is a link to the PTWC:

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/ptwc/?region=1

The West Coast & Alaska Tsunami Warning Center is here:

http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/

A Tsunami Advisory has been issued from southern California north through the Aleutian Islands.

COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN AND INCLUDING THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO
BORDER TO ATTU ALASKA
803 AM PST SAT FEB 27 2010

...A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WHICH INCLUDES THE
COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA - OREGON - WASHINGTON - BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO
ATTU ALASKA...

PERSONS IN TSUNAMI ADVISORY AREAS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE
WATER... OFF THE BEACH AND OUT OF HARBORS AND MARINAS.

TSUNAMI ADVISORIES MEAN THAT A TSUNAMI CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG CURRENTS OR WAVES DANGEROUS TO PERSONS IN OR VERY NEAR
WATER IS IMMINENT OF EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD INUNDATION
IS NOT EXPECTED FOR AREAS IN AN ADVISORY. TSUNAMIS ARE A SERIES OF
WAVES POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERAL HOURS AFTER INITIAL ARRIVAL
TIME. ESTIMATED TIMES OF INITIAL WAVE ARRIVAL FOR SELECTED
SITES IN THE ADVISORY ARE PROVIDED BELOW.

LA JOLLA-CA 1202 PST FEB 27 YAKUTAT-AK 1619 AKST FEB 27
SANTA BARBARA-CA 1231 PST FEB 27 KODIAK-AK 1628 AKST FEB 27
SAN FRANCISCO-CA 1326 PST FEB 27 SAND PT.-AK 1629 AKST FEB 27
CRESCENT CITY-CA 1346 PST FEB 27 JUNEAU-AK 1635 AKST FEB 27
CHARLESTON-OR 1402 PST FEB 27 DUTCH HARBOR-AK 1638 AKST FEB 27
SEASIDE-OR 1446 PST FEB 27 SEWARD-AK 1639 AKST FEB 27
WESTPORT-WA 1457 PST FEB 27 ADAK-AK 1642 AKST FEB 27
NEAH BAY-WA 1507 PST FEB 27 VALDEZ-AK 1657 AKST FEB 27
TOFINO-BC 1515 PST FEB 27 CORDOVA-AK 1706 AKST FEB 27
LANGARA-BC 1551 PST FEB 27 COLD BAY-AK 1709 AKST FEB 27
SITKA-AK 1529 AKST FEB 27 SHEMYA-AK 1721 AKST FEB 27
KETCHIKAN-AK 1549 AKST FEB 27 HOMER-AK 1739 AKST FEB 27
FOR ARRIVAL TIMES AT ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS SEE
WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV

ED

UPDATE FROM MESSAGE #3
TSUNAMI WATCH IS CANCELLED.

UPDATE FROM MESSAGE #2
NOTE: MAGNITUDE IS REDUCED FROM 7.3 TO 7.1

THERE ARE NO SEA LEVEL READINGS YET FOR THIS EVENT. READINGS
FROM THE NEAREST GAUGES SHOULD BE RECEIVED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

At 4:53PM EST a major earthquake occured near Port au Prince, Haiti. Magnitude was 7.3 and coordinates of the epicenter are 18.5N 72.5W. The epicenter is in shallow water and a local tsunami was generated. Extensive damage in Haiti. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center is issuing warnings.

"TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
2203 UTC TUE JAN 12 2010

THIS MESSAGE APPLIES TO COUNTRIES WITHIN AND BORDERING THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

... A LOCAL TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT ...

A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR

HAITI / CUBA / BAHAMAS / DOMINICAN REP

FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE CARIBBEAN COVERED BY THIS MESSAGE...IT IS
FOR INFORMATION ONLY AT THIS TIME.

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 2153Z 12 JAN 2010
COORDINATES - 18.5 NORTH 72.5 WEST
LOCATION - HAITI REGION
MAGNITUDE - 7.3

EVALUATION

A DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT DOES NOT EXIST BASED ON
HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.

HOWEVER - THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOCAL TSUNAMI THAT
COULD AFFECT COASTS LOCATED USUALLY NO MORE THAN A HUNDRED
KILOMETERS FROM THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. AUTHORITIES FOR THE
REGION NEAR THE EPICENTER SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS POSSIBILITY.
AREAS FURTHER FROM THE EPICENTER COULD EXPERIENCE SMALL SEA
LEVEL CHANGES AND STRONG OR UNUSUAL COASTAL CURRENTS.

ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTS
WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

LOCATION FORECAST POINT COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME
-------------------------------- ------------ ------------
HAITI JEREMIE 18.6N 74.1W 2224Z 12 JAN
PORT-AU-PRINCE 18.5N 72.4W 2229Z 12 JAN
CAP-HAITEN 19.8N 72.2W 2255Z 12 JAN
CUBA BARACOA 20.4N 74.5W 2249Z 12 JAN
BAHAMAS GREAT INAGUA 20.9N 73.7W 2246Z 12 JAN
DOMINICAN REP PUERTO PLATA 19.8N 70.7W 2304Z 12 JAN
SANTO DOMINGO 18.5N 69.9W 2337Z 12 JAN

ADDITIONAL BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI
WARNING CENTER FOR THIS EVENT AS MORE INFORMATION
BECOMES AVAILABLE."

Although not a meteorological event, it seemed appropriate to provide some information to anyone with an interest in this disaster. At this time a major tsunami event in the Atlantic basin is not expected.
ED

Ida certainly poses some interesting possibilities regarding her future track. NHC solution runs her up to the panhandle where she gets absorbed by a (mostly) stationary front, with the storm becoming extratropical on Tuesday. Tropical models run the hurricane toward the panhandle (by then a tropical storm again) and then turn it east and southeast over or close to Florida’s west coast and weaken the storm but no extratropical transition. GFS runs the storm northward in the Gulf of Mexico, transitions it to an extratropical system and sends it across the extreme northern peninsula toward reformation off the South Carolina coast.

Upper level 300mb progs suggest strong northwesterly winds moving over the Florida peninsula – which would lend support to the tropical models (HWRF/GFDL) scenario and pretty much negate the GFS solution. The light shear zone that Ida is currently moving through is being shoved a little northward into the southeastern Gulf by the trough over Mexico, however, strong westerly winds are still evident above 25N so Ida should begin to weaken by Sunday evening as she moves northward in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Does Ida get absorbed by the front as she nears the panhandle, or does she get shoved southeastward by the building ridge to the north and the strong upper northwesterly flow? The Saturday projections seemed to be a little too far to the west beyond Monday evening, however, AF Recon has confirmed that the center of the hurricane is actually located about 50 miles further to the west than what had been previously assumed. Could the storm make landfall in the central panhandle before being absorbed or shoved southeastward? Its still too early to tell, but I have trouble with a mostly zonal front absorbing a healthy extratropical system so I’m eliminating that scenario. There is always the possibility that she simply dies out as a result of the westerly windshear in the northern Gulf. A strong pressure gradient is already in place, so windy conditions and rough seas in the southeast and along the northeast Gulf coast well into this week.
ED