The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season runs June 1st - November 30th 2010.
Meteorologist Blogs
Ed DunhamStrong Earthquake Hits Chile - Tsunami Warnings Issued for Pacific
Posted: 11:27 AM 27 February 2010
An earthquake with a magnitude of 8.8 occurred at 1:34AM EST on Saturday (2/27) near the coast of Chile at 36.1S 72.6W. A Tsunami with the potential for maximum severity was generated and a Pacific-wide Tsunami Warning has been issued. The first Tsunami wave is expected to reach the Hawaiian Islands at 11:19AM HST (4:19PM EST). Tsunami warning sirens were sounded at 6AM HST (a few minutes ago) although many residents are already procuring fresh water and other supplies and they are evacuating the coastal areas.
TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 10
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
447 AM HST SAT FEB 27 2010
TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII
SUBJECT - TSUNAMI WARNING SUPPLEMENT
A TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII.
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME - 0834 PM HST 26 FEB 2010
COORDINATES - 36.1 SOUTH 72.6 WEST
LOCATION - NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
MAGNITUDE - 8.8 MOMENT
MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY
GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
------------------- ----- ------ ----- --------------- -----
QUEPOS CR 0.0N 9.4E 1418Z 0.24M / 0.8FT 44MIN
BALTRA GALAPAGS EC 0.4S 90.3W 1313Z 0.25M / 0.8FT 36MIN
EASTER CL 27.2S 109.5W 1205Z 0.35M / 1.1FT 52MIN
ANCUD CL 41.9S 73.8W 0838Z 0.62M / 2.0FT 84MIN
CALLAO LA-PUNTA PE 12.1S 77.2W 1029Z 0.36M / 1.2FT 30MIN
ARICA CL 18.5S 70.3W 1008Z 0.94M / 3.1FT 42MIN
IQUIQUE CL 20.2S 70.1W 0907Z 0.28M / 0.9FT 68MIN
ANTOFAGASTA CL 23.2S 70.4W 0941Z 0.49M / 1.6FT 52MIN
DART LIMA 32412 18.0S 86.4W 0941Z 0.24M / 0.8FT 36MIN
CALDERA CL 27.1S 70.8W 0843Z 0.45M / 1.5FT 20MIN
TALCAHUANO CL 36.7S 73.4W 0653Z 2.34M / 7.7FT 88MIN
COQUIMBO CL 30.0S 71.3W 0852Z 1.32M / 4.3FT 30MIN
CORRAL CL 39.9S 73.4W 0739Z 0.90M / 2.9FT 16MIN
SAN FELIX CL 26.3S 80.1W 0815Z 0.53M / 1.7FT 08MIN
VALPARAISO CL 33.0S 71.6W 0708Z 1.29M / 4.2FT 20MIN
LAT - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
LON - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
PER - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.
EVALUATION
A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED THAT COULD CAUSE DAMAGE ALONG
COASTLINES OF ALL ISLANDS IN THE STATE OF HAWAII. URGENT ACTION
SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT LIVES AND PROPERTY.
A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF LONG OCEAN WAVES. EACH INDIVIDUAL WAVE
CREST CAN LAST 5 TO 15 MINUTES OR MORE AND EXTENSIVELY FLOOD
COASTAL AREAS. THE DANGER CAN CONTINUE FOR MANY HOURS AFTER THE
INITIAL WAVE AS SUBSEQUENT WAVES ARRIVE. TSUNAMI WAVE HEIGHTS
CANNOT BE PREDICTED AND THE FIRST WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST.
TSUNAMI WAVES EFFICIENTLY WRAP AROUND ISLANDS. ALL SHORES ARE AT
RISK NO MATTER WHICH DIRECTION THEY FACE. THE TROUGH OF A TSUNAMI
WAVE MAY TEMPORARILY EXPOSE THE SEAFLOOR BUT THE AREA WILL
QUICKLY FLOOD AGAIN. EXTREMELY STRONG AND UNUSUAL NEARSHORE
CURRENTS CAN ACCOMPANY A TSUNAMI. DEBRIS PICKED UP AND CARRIED
BY A TSUNAMI AMPLIFIES ITS DESTRUCTIVE POWER. SIMULTANEOUS HIGH
TIDES OR HIGH SURF CAN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE TSUNAMI HAZARD.
THE ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME IN HAWAII OF THE FIRST TSUNAMI WAVE IS
1119 AM HST SAT 27 FEB 2010
MESSAGES WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
Here is the latest Warning message for the entire Pacific basin:
TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 010
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 1545Z 27 FEB 2010
THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.
... A WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT ...
A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
CHILE / PERU / ECUADOR / COLOMBIA / ANTARCTICA / PANAMA /
COSTA RICA / NICARAGUA / PITCAIRN / HONDURAS / EL SALVADOR /
GUATEMALA / FR. POLYNESIA / MEXICO / COOK ISLANDS / KIRIBATI /
KERMADEC IS / NIUE / NEW ZEALAND / TONGA / AMERICAN SAMOA /
SAMOA / JARVIS IS. / WALLIS-FUTUNA / TOKELAU / FIJI /
AUSTRALIA / HAWAII / PALMYRA IS. / TUVALU / VANUATU /
HOWLAND-BAKER / NEW CALEDONIA / JOHNSTON IS. / SOLOMON IS. /
NAURU / MARSHALL IS. / MIDWAY IS. / KOSRAE / PAPUA NEW GUINEA /
POHNPEI / WAKE IS. / CHUUK / RUSSIA / MARCUS IS. / INDONESIA /
N. MARIANAS / GUAM / YAP / BELAU / JAPAN / PHILIPPINES /
CHINESE TAIPEI
THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME - 0634Z 27 FEB 2010
COORDINATES - 36.1 SOUTH 72.6 WEST
DEPTH - 55 KM
LOCATION - NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
MAGNITUDE - 8.8
MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY
GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
------------------- ----- ------ ----- --------------- -----
QUEPOS CR 0.0N 9.4E 1416Z 0.24M / 0.8FT 52MIN
BALTRA GALAPAGS EC 0.4S 90.3W 1452Z 0.35M / 1.2FT 14MIN
DART MARQUESAS 5140 8.5S 125.0W 1519Z 0.28M / 0.9FT 48MIN
EASTER CL 27.2S 109.5W 1205Z 0.35M / 1.1FT 52MIN
ANCUD CL 41.9S 73.8W 0838Z 0.62M / 2.0FT 84MIN
CALLAO LA-PUNTA PE 12.1S 77.2W 1029Z 0.36M / 1.2FT 30MIN
ARICA CL 18.5S 70.3W 1008Z 0.94M / 3.1FT 42MIN
IQUIQUE CL 20.2S 70.1W 0907Z 0.28M / 0.9FT 68MIN
ANTOFAGASTA CL 23.2S 70.4W 0941Z 0.49M / 1.6FT 52MIN
CALDERA CL 27.1S 70.8W 0843Z 0.45M / 1.5FT 20MIN
TALCAHUANO CL 36.7S 73.4W 0653Z 2.34M / 7.7FT 88MIN
COQUIMBO CL 30.0S 71.3W 0852Z 1.32M / 4.3FT 30MIN
CORRAL CL 39.9S 73.4W 0739Z 0.90M / 2.9FT 16MIN
SAN FELIX CL 26.3S 80.1W 0815Z 0.53M / 1.7FT 08MIN
VALPARAISO CL 33.0S 71.6W 0708Z 1.29M / 4.2FT 20MIN
LAT - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
LON - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
PER - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.
EVALUATION
SEA LEVEL READINGS CONFIRM THAT A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED
WHICH COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE. AUTHORITIES SHOULD TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THIS THREAT. THIS CENTER WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEA LEVEL DATA TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT AND
SEVERITY OF THE THREAT.
A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE FIRST WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. TSUNAMI WAVE HEIGHTS CANNOT BE PREDICTED AND CAN VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG A COAST DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. THE TIME FROM
ONE TSUNAMI WAVE TO THE NEXT CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO AN HOUR, AND
THE THREAT CAN CONTINUE FOR MANY HOURS AS MULTIPLE WAVES ARRIVE.
FOR ALL AREAS - WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES ARE OBSERVED FOR TWO HOURS
AFTER THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT
OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME
THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS. AS LOCAL
CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE
ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.
ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTS
WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.
LOCATION FORECAST POINT COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME
-------------------------------- ------------ ------------
CHILE TALCAHUANO 36.7S 73.1W 0729Z 27 FEB
VALPARAISO 33.0S 71.6W 0739Z 27 FEB
COQUIMBO 29.9S 71.3W 0801Z 27 FEB
CORRAL 39.8S 73.5W 0810Z 27 FEB
CALDERA 27.1S 70.8W 0821Z 27 FEB
ANTOFAGASTA 23.3S 70.4W 0844Z 27 FEB
IQUIQUE 20.2S 70.1W 0911Z 27 FEB
ARICA 18.5S 70.3W 0929Z 27 FEB
GOLFO DE PENAS 47.1S 74.9W 0934Z 27 FEB
PUERTO MONTT 41.5S 73.0W 1052Z 27 FEB
EASTER IS. 27.1S 109.4W 1205Z 27 FEB
PUNTA ARENAS 53.2S 70.9W 1213Z 27 FEB
PUERTO WILLIAMS 54.8S 68.2W 1404Z 27 FEB
PERU MOLLENDO 17.1S 72.0W 0936Z 27 FEB
SAN JUAN 15.3S 75.2W 0952Z 27 FEB
LA PUNTA 12.1S 77.2W 1045Z 27 FEB
PIMENTAL 6.9S 80.0W 1114Z 27 FEB
TALARA 4.6S 81.5W 1127Z 27 FEB
CHIMBOTE 9.0S 78.8W 1132Z 27 FEB
ECUADOR LA LIBERTAD 2.2S 81.2W 1202Z 27 FEB
ESMERELDAS 1.2N 79.8W 1234Z 27 FEB
BALTRA IS. 0.5S 90.3W 1313Z 27 FEB
COLOMBIA TUMACO 1.8N 78.9W 1253Z 27 FEB
BAHIA SOLANO 6.3N 77.4W 1327Z 27 FEB
BUENAVENTURA 3.8N 77.2W 1340Z 27 FEB
ANTARCTICA THURSTON IS. 72.0S 100.0W 1312Z 27 FEB
CAPE ADARE 71.0S 170.0E 1650Z 27 FEB
PANAMA PUERTO PINA 7.4N 78.1W 1331Z 27 FEB
PUNTA MALA 7.5N 79.9W 1334Z 27 FEB
PUNTA BURICA 8.0N 82.8W 1340Z 27 FEB
BALBOA HTS. 9.0N 79.6W 1457Z 27 FEB
COSTA RICA CABO MATAPALO 8.4N 83.3W 1344Z 27 FEB
PUERTO QUEPOS 9.4N 84.2W 1417Z 27 FEB
CABO SAN ELENA 10.9N 86.0W 1452Z 27 FEB
NICARAGUA SAN JUAN DL SUR 11.2N 85.9W 1452Z 27 FEB
PUERTO SANDINO 12.2N 86.8W 1512Z 27 FEB
CORINTO 12.5N 87.2W 1520Z 27 FEB
PITCAIRN PITCAIRN IS. 25.1S 130.1W 1455Z 27 FEB
HONDURAS AMAPALA 13.2N 87.6W 1520Z 27 FEB
EL SALVADOR ACAJUTLA 13.6N 89.8W 1531Z 27 FEB
GUATEMALA SIPICATE 13.9N 91.2W 1539Z 27 FEB
FR. POLYNESIA RIKITEA 23.1S 135.0W 1542Z 27 FEB
HIVA OA 10.0S 139.0W 1723Z 27 FEB
PAPEETE 17.5S 149.6W 1748Z 27 FEB
MEXICO PUERTO MADERO 14.8N 92.5W 1552Z 27 FEB
ACAPULCO 16.9N 99.9W 1615Z 27 FEB
MANZANILLO 19.1N 104.3W 1709Z 27 FEB
SOCORRO 18.8N 111.0W 1719Z 27 FEB
CABO SAN LUCAS 22.8N 110.0W 1749Z 27 FEB
MAZATLAN 23.2N 106.4W 1753Z 27 FEB
PUNTA ABREOJOS 26.7N 113.6W 1856Z 27 FEB
ENSENADA 31.8N 116.8W 2016Z 27 FEB
COOK ISLANDS RAROTONGA 21.2S 159.8W 1814Z 27 FEB
PENRYN IS. 8.9S 157.8W 1925Z 27 FEB
PUKAPUKA IS. 10.8S 165.9W 1950Z 27 FEB
KIRIBATI FLINT IS. 11.4S 151.8W 1836Z 27 FEB
MALDEN IS. 3.9S 154.9W 1934Z 27 FEB
CHRISTMAS IS. 2.0N 157.5W 2028Z 27 FEB
KANTON IS. 2.8S 171.7W 2112Z 27 FEB
TARAWA IS. 1.5N 173.0E 2258Z 27 FEB
KERMADEC IS RAOUL IS. 29.2S 177.9W 1912Z 27 FEB
NIUE NIUE IS. 19.0S 170.0W 1918Z 27 FEB
NEW ZEALAND EAST CAPE 37.7S 178.5E 1918Z 27 FEB
GISBORNE 38.7S 178.0E 1922Z 27 FEB
DUNEDIN 45.9S 170.5E 1952Z 27 FEB
NAPIER 39.5S 176.9E 1954Z 27 FEB
WELLINGTON 41.3S 174.8E 1955Z 27 FEB
MILFORD SOUND 44.6S 167.9E 2005Z 27 FEB
NORTH CAPE 34.4S 173.3E 2010Z 27 FEB
BLUFF 46.6S 168.3E 2030Z 27 FEB
LYTTELTON 43.6S 172.7E 2040Z 27 FEB
AUCKLAND(E) 36.7S 175.0E 2056Z 27 FEB
NELSON 41.3S 173.3E 2127Z 27 FEB
WESTPORT 41.8S 171.6E 2129Z 27 FEB
AUCKLAND(W) 37.1S 174.2E 2140Z 27 FEB
NEW PLYMOUTH 39.1S 174.1E 2219Z 27 FEB
TONGA NUKUALOFA 21.0S 175.2W 1940Z 27 FEB
AMERICAN SAMOA PAGO PAGO 14.3S 170.7W 1951Z 27 FEB
SAMOA APIA 13.8S 171.8W 2006Z 27 FEB
JARVIS IS. JARVIS IS. 0.4S 160.1W 2026Z 27 FEB
WALLIS-FUTUNA WALLIS IS. 13.2S 176.2W 2028Z 27 FEB
TOKELAU NUKUNONU IS. 9.2S 171.8W 2030Z 27 FEB
FIJI SUVA 18.1S 178.4E 2104Z 27 FEB
AUSTRALIA HOBART 43.3S 147.6E 2105Z 27 FEB
SYDNEY 33.9S 151.4E 2146Z 27 FEB
BRISBANE 27.2S 153.3E 2310Z 27 FEB
GLADSTONE 23.8S 151.4E 0101Z 28 FEB
CAIRNS 16.7S 145.8E 0159Z 28 FEB
MACKAY 21.1S 149.3E 0251Z 28 FEB
HAWAII HILO 19.7N 155.1W 2119Z 27 FEB
HONOLULU 21.3N 157.9W 2152Z 27 FEB
NAWILIWILI 22.0N 159.4W 2158Z 27 FEB
PALMYRA IS. PALMYRA IS. 6.3N 162.4W 2124Z 27 FEB
TUVALU FUNAFUTI IS. 7.9S 178.5E 2125Z 27 FEB
VANUATU ANATOM IS. 20.2S 169.9E 2137Z 27 FEB
ESPERITU SANTO 15.1S 167.3E 2235Z 27 FEB
HOWLAND-BAKER HOWLAND IS. 0.6N 176.6W 2154Z 27 FEB
NEW CALEDONIA NOUMEA 22.3S 166.5E 2218Z 27 FEB
JOHNSTON IS. JOHNSTON IS. 16.7N 169.5W 2245Z 27 FEB
SOLOMON IS. KIRAKIRA 10.4S 161.9E 2321Z 27 FEB
MUNDA 8.4S 157.2E 0001Z 28 FEB
GHATERE 7.8S 159.2E 0001Z 28 FEB
AUKI 8.8S 160.6E 0004Z 28 FEB
HONIARA 9.3S 160.0E 0004Z 28 FEB
FALAMAE 7.4S 155.6E 0017Z 28 FEB
PANGGOE 6.9S 157.2E 0020Z 28 FEB
NAURU NAURU 0.5S 166.9E 2331Z 27 FEB
MARSHALL IS. MAJURO 7.1N 171.4E 2339Z 27 FEB
KWAJALEIN 8.7N 167.7E 0013Z 28 FEB
ENIWETOK 11.4N 162.3E 0102Z 28 FEB
MIDWAY IS. MIDWAY IS. 28.2N 177.4W 0022Z 28 FEB
KOSRAE KOSRAE IS. 5.5N 163.0E 0026Z 28 FEB
PAPUA NEW GUINE AMUN 6.0S 154.7E 0036Z 28 FEB
KIETA 6.1S 155.6E 0038Z 28 FEB
RABAUL 4.2S 152.3E 0102Z 28 FEB
PORT MORESBY 9.3S 146.9E 0123Z 28 FEB
LAE 6.8S 147.0E 0128Z 28 FEB
KAVIENG 2.5S 150.7E 0135Z 28 FEB
MADANG 5.2S 145.8E 0154Z 28 FEB
MANUS IS. 2.0S 147.5E 0214Z 28 FEB
WEWAK 3.5S 143.6E 0237Z 28 FEB
VANIMO 2.6S 141.3E 0258Z 28 FEB
POHNPEI POHNPEI IS. 7.0N 158.2E 0111Z 28 FEB
WAKE IS. WAKE IS. 19.3N 166.6E 0112Z 28 FEB
CHUUK CHUUK IS. 7.4N 151.8E 0213Z 28 FEB
RUSSIA MEDNNY IS 54.7N 167.4E 0236Z 28 FEB
UST KAMCHATSK 56.1N 162.6E 0302Z 28 FEB
PETROPAVLOVSK K 53.2N 159.6E 0333Z 28 FEB
URUP IS 46.1N 150.5E 0354Z 28 FEB
SEVERO KURILSK 50.8N 156.1E 0410Z 28 FEB
MARCUS IS. MARCUS IS. 24.3N 154.0E 0248Z 28 FEB
INDONESIA JAYAPURA 2.4S 140.8E 0302Z 28 FEB
WARSA 0.6S 135.8E 0345Z 28 FEB
MANOKWARI 0.8S 134.2E 0405Z 28 FEB
SORONG 0.8S 131.1E 0433Z 28 FEB
BEREBERE 2.5N 128.7E 0452Z 28 FEB
PATANI 0.4N 128.8E 0505Z 28 FEB
GEME 4.6N 126.8E 0512Z 28 FEB
N. MARIANAS SAIPAN 15.3N 145.8E 0303Z 28 FEB
GUAM GUAM 13.4N 144.7E 0311Z 28 FEB
YAP YAP IS. 9.5N 138.1E 0352Z 28 FEB
BELAU MALAKAL 7.3N 134.5E 0413Z 28 FEB
JAPAN KUSHIRO 42.9N 144.3E 0435Z 28 FEB
KATSUURA 35.1N 140.3E 0453Z 28 FEB
HACHINOHE 40.5N 141.5E 0509Z 28 FEB
SHIMIZU 32.8N 133.0E 0557Z 28 FEB
OKINAWA 26.2N 127.8E 0610Z 28 FEB
PHILIPPINES DAVAO 6.8N 125.7E 0527Z 28 FEB
PALANAN 17.1N 122.6E 0559Z 28 FEB
LEGASPI 13.2N 123.8E 0604Z 28 FEB
CHINESE TAIPEI HUALIEN 24.0N 121.6E 0626Z 28 FEB
HUALIEN 24.0N 121.7E 0626Z 28 FEB
CHILUNG 25.2N 121.8E 0654Z 28 FEB
TAITUNG 22.7N 121.2E 0655Z 28 FEB
BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
THE TSUNAMI WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
THE WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS
FOR ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...OREGON...CALIFORNIA.
Here is a link to the PTWC:
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/ptwc/?region=1
The West Coast & Alaska Tsunami Warning Center is here:
http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/
A Tsunami Advisory has been issued from southern California north through the Aleutian Islands.
COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN AND INCLUDING THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO
BORDER TO ATTU ALASKA
803 AM PST SAT FEB 27 2010
...A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WHICH INCLUDES THE
COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA - OREGON - WASHINGTON - BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO
ATTU ALASKA...
PERSONS IN TSUNAMI ADVISORY AREAS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE
WATER... OFF THE BEACH AND OUT OF HARBORS AND MARINAS.
TSUNAMI ADVISORIES MEAN THAT A TSUNAMI CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG CURRENTS OR WAVES DANGEROUS TO PERSONS IN OR VERY NEAR
WATER IS IMMINENT OF EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD INUNDATION
IS NOT EXPECTED FOR AREAS IN AN ADVISORY. TSUNAMIS ARE A SERIES OF
WAVES POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERAL HOURS AFTER INITIAL ARRIVAL
TIME. ESTIMATED TIMES OF INITIAL WAVE ARRIVAL FOR SELECTED
SITES IN THE ADVISORY ARE PROVIDED BELOW.
LA JOLLA-CA 1202 PST FEB 27 YAKUTAT-AK 1619 AKST FEB 27
SANTA BARBARA-CA 1231 PST FEB 27 KODIAK-AK 1628 AKST FEB 27
SAN FRANCISCO-CA 1326 PST FEB 27 SAND PT.-AK 1629 AKST FEB 27
CRESCENT CITY-CA 1346 PST FEB 27 JUNEAU-AK 1635 AKST FEB 27
CHARLESTON-OR 1402 PST FEB 27 DUTCH HARBOR-AK 1638 AKST FEB 27
SEASIDE-OR 1446 PST FEB 27 SEWARD-AK 1639 AKST FEB 27
WESTPORT-WA 1457 PST FEB 27 ADAK-AK 1642 AKST FEB 27
NEAH BAY-WA 1507 PST FEB 27 VALDEZ-AK 1657 AKST FEB 27
TOFINO-BC 1515 PST FEB 27 CORDOVA-AK 1706 AKST FEB 27
LANGARA-BC 1551 PST FEB 27 COLD BAY-AK 1709 AKST FEB 27
SITKA-AK 1529 AKST FEB 27 SHEMYA-AK 1721 AKST FEB 27
KETCHIKAN-AK 1549 AKST FEB 27 HOMER-AK 1739 AKST FEB 27
FOR ARRIVAL TIMES AT ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS SEE
WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV
ED
TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 10
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
447 AM HST SAT FEB 27 2010
TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII
SUBJECT - TSUNAMI WARNING SUPPLEMENT
A TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII.
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME - 0834 PM HST 26 FEB 2010
COORDINATES - 36.1 SOUTH 72.6 WEST
LOCATION - NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
MAGNITUDE - 8.8 MOMENT
MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY
GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
------------------- ----- ------ ----- --------------- -----
QUEPOS CR 0.0N 9.4E 1418Z 0.24M / 0.8FT 44MIN
BALTRA GALAPAGS EC 0.4S 90.3W 1313Z 0.25M / 0.8FT 36MIN
EASTER CL 27.2S 109.5W 1205Z 0.35M / 1.1FT 52MIN
ANCUD CL 41.9S 73.8W 0838Z 0.62M / 2.0FT 84MIN
CALLAO LA-PUNTA PE 12.1S 77.2W 1029Z 0.36M / 1.2FT 30MIN
ARICA CL 18.5S 70.3W 1008Z 0.94M / 3.1FT 42MIN
IQUIQUE CL 20.2S 70.1W 0907Z 0.28M / 0.9FT 68MIN
ANTOFAGASTA CL 23.2S 70.4W 0941Z 0.49M / 1.6FT 52MIN
DART LIMA 32412 18.0S 86.4W 0941Z 0.24M / 0.8FT 36MIN
CALDERA CL 27.1S 70.8W 0843Z 0.45M / 1.5FT 20MIN
TALCAHUANO CL 36.7S 73.4W 0653Z 2.34M / 7.7FT 88MIN
COQUIMBO CL 30.0S 71.3W 0852Z 1.32M / 4.3FT 30MIN
CORRAL CL 39.9S 73.4W 0739Z 0.90M / 2.9FT 16MIN
SAN FELIX CL 26.3S 80.1W 0815Z 0.53M / 1.7FT 08MIN
VALPARAISO CL 33.0S 71.6W 0708Z 1.29M / 4.2FT 20MIN
LAT - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
LON - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
PER - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.
EVALUATION
A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED THAT COULD CAUSE DAMAGE ALONG
COASTLINES OF ALL ISLANDS IN THE STATE OF HAWAII. URGENT ACTION
SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT LIVES AND PROPERTY.
A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF LONG OCEAN WAVES. EACH INDIVIDUAL WAVE
CREST CAN LAST 5 TO 15 MINUTES OR MORE AND EXTENSIVELY FLOOD
COASTAL AREAS. THE DANGER CAN CONTINUE FOR MANY HOURS AFTER THE
INITIAL WAVE AS SUBSEQUENT WAVES ARRIVE. TSUNAMI WAVE HEIGHTS
CANNOT BE PREDICTED AND THE FIRST WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST.
TSUNAMI WAVES EFFICIENTLY WRAP AROUND ISLANDS. ALL SHORES ARE AT
RISK NO MATTER WHICH DIRECTION THEY FACE. THE TROUGH OF A TSUNAMI
WAVE MAY TEMPORARILY EXPOSE THE SEAFLOOR BUT THE AREA WILL
QUICKLY FLOOD AGAIN. EXTREMELY STRONG AND UNUSUAL NEARSHORE
CURRENTS CAN ACCOMPANY A TSUNAMI. DEBRIS PICKED UP AND CARRIED
BY A TSUNAMI AMPLIFIES ITS DESTRUCTIVE POWER. SIMULTANEOUS HIGH
TIDES OR HIGH SURF CAN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE TSUNAMI HAZARD.
THE ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME IN HAWAII OF THE FIRST TSUNAMI WAVE IS
1119 AM HST SAT 27 FEB 2010
MESSAGES WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
Here is the latest Warning message for the entire Pacific basin:
TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 010
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 1545Z 27 FEB 2010
THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.
... A WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT ...
A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
CHILE / PERU / ECUADOR / COLOMBIA / ANTARCTICA / PANAMA /
COSTA RICA / NICARAGUA / PITCAIRN / HONDURAS / EL SALVADOR /
GUATEMALA / FR. POLYNESIA / MEXICO / COOK ISLANDS / KIRIBATI /
KERMADEC IS / NIUE / NEW ZEALAND / TONGA / AMERICAN SAMOA /
SAMOA / JARVIS IS. / WALLIS-FUTUNA / TOKELAU / FIJI /
AUSTRALIA / HAWAII / PALMYRA IS. / TUVALU / VANUATU /
HOWLAND-BAKER / NEW CALEDONIA / JOHNSTON IS. / SOLOMON IS. /
NAURU / MARSHALL IS. / MIDWAY IS. / KOSRAE / PAPUA NEW GUINEA /
POHNPEI / WAKE IS. / CHUUK / RUSSIA / MARCUS IS. / INDONESIA /
N. MARIANAS / GUAM / YAP / BELAU / JAPAN / PHILIPPINES /
CHINESE TAIPEI
THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME - 0634Z 27 FEB 2010
COORDINATES - 36.1 SOUTH 72.6 WEST
DEPTH - 55 KM
LOCATION - NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
MAGNITUDE - 8.8
MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY
GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
------------------- ----- ------ ----- --------------- -----
QUEPOS CR 0.0N 9.4E 1416Z 0.24M / 0.8FT 52MIN
BALTRA GALAPAGS EC 0.4S 90.3W 1452Z 0.35M / 1.2FT 14MIN
DART MARQUESAS 5140 8.5S 125.0W 1519Z 0.28M / 0.9FT 48MIN
EASTER CL 27.2S 109.5W 1205Z 0.35M / 1.1FT 52MIN
ANCUD CL 41.9S 73.8W 0838Z 0.62M / 2.0FT 84MIN
CALLAO LA-PUNTA PE 12.1S 77.2W 1029Z 0.36M / 1.2FT 30MIN
ARICA CL 18.5S 70.3W 1008Z 0.94M / 3.1FT 42MIN
IQUIQUE CL 20.2S 70.1W 0907Z 0.28M / 0.9FT 68MIN
ANTOFAGASTA CL 23.2S 70.4W 0941Z 0.49M / 1.6FT 52MIN
CALDERA CL 27.1S 70.8W 0843Z 0.45M / 1.5FT 20MIN
TALCAHUANO CL 36.7S 73.4W 0653Z 2.34M / 7.7FT 88MIN
COQUIMBO CL 30.0S 71.3W 0852Z 1.32M / 4.3FT 30MIN
CORRAL CL 39.9S 73.4W 0739Z 0.90M / 2.9FT 16MIN
SAN FELIX CL 26.3S 80.1W 0815Z 0.53M / 1.7FT 08MIN
VALPARAISO CL 33.0S 71.6W 0708Z 1.29M / 4.2FT 20MIN
LAT - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
LON - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
PER - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.
EVALUATION
SEA LEVEL READINGS CONFIRM THAT A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED
WHICH COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE. AUTHORITIES SHOULD TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THIS THREAT. THIS CENTER WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEA LEVEL DATA TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT AND
SEVERITY OF THE THREAT.
A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE FIRST WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. TSUNAMI WAVE HEIGHTS CANNOT BE PREDICTED AND CAN VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG A COAST DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. THE TIME FROM
ONE TSUNAMI WAVE TO THE NEXT CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO AN HOUR, AND
THE THREAT CAN CONTINUE FOR MANY HOURS AS MULTIPLE WAVES ARRIVE.
FOR ALL AREAS - WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES ARE OBSERVED FOR TWO HOURS
AFTER THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT
OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME
THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS. AS LOCAL
CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE
ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.
ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTS
WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.
LOCATION FORECAST POINT COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME
-------------------------------- ------------ ------------
CHILE TALCAHUANO 36.7S 73.1W 0729Z 27 FEB
VALPARAISO 33.0S 71.6W 0739Z 27 FEB
COQUIMBO 29.9S 71.3W 0801Z 27 FEB
CORRAL 39.8S 73.5W 0810Z 27 FEB
CALDERA 27.1S 70.8W 0821Z 27 FEB
ANTOFAGASTA 23.3S 70.4W 0844Z 27 FEB
IQUIQUE 20.2S 70.1W 0911Z 27 FEB
ARICA 18.5S 70.3W 0929Z 27 FEB
GOLFO DE PENAS 47.1S 74.9W 0934Z 27 FEB
PUERTO MONTT 41.5S 73.0W 1052Z 27 FEB
EASTER IS. 27.1S 109.4W 1205Z 27 FEB
PUNTA ARENAS 53.2S 70.9W 1213Z 27 FEB
PUERTO WILLIAMS 54.8S 68.2W 1404Z 27 FEB
PERU MOLLENDO 17.1S 72.0W 0936Z 27 FEB
SAN JUAN 15.3S 75.2W 0952Z 27 FEB
LA PUNTA 12.1S 77.2W 1045Z 27 FEB
PIMENTAL 6.9S 80.0W 1114Z 27 FEB
TALARA 4.6S 81.5W 1127Z 27 FEB
CHIMBOTE 9.0S 78.8W 1132Z 27 FEB
ECUADOR LA LIBERTAD 2.2S 81.2W 1202Z 27 FEB
ESMERELDAS 1.2N 79.8W 1234Z 27 FEB
BALTRA IS. 0.5S 90.3W 1313Z 27 FEB
COLOMBIA TUMACO 1.8N 78.9W 1253Z 27 FEB
BAHIA SOLANO 6.3N 77.4W 1327Z 27 FEB
BUENAVENTURA 3.8N 77.2W 1340Z 27 FEB
ANTARCTICA THURSTON IS. 72.0S 100.0W 1312Z 27 FEB
CAPE ADARE 71.0S 170.0E 1650Z 27 FEB
PANAMA PUERTO PINA 7.4N 78.1W 1331Z 27 FEB
PUNTA MALA 7.5N 79.9W 1334Z 27 FEB
PUNTA BURICA 8.0N 82.8W 1340Z 27 FEB
BALBOA HTS. 9.0N 79.6W 1457Z 27 FEB
COSTA RICA CABO MATAPALO 8.4N 83.3W 1344Z 27 FEB
PUERTO QUEPOS 9.4N 84.2W 1417Z 27 FEB
CABO SAN ELENA 10.9N 86.0W 1452Z 27 FEB
NICARAGUA SAN JUAN DL SUR 11.2N 85.9W 1452Z 27 FEB
PUERTO SANDINO 12.2N 86.8W 1512Z 27 FEB
CORINTO 12.5N 87.2W 1520Z 27 FEB
PITCAIRN PITCAIRN IS. 25.1S 130.1W 1455Z 27 FEB
HONDURAS AMAPALA 13.2N 87.6W 1520Z 27 FEB
EL SALVADOR ACAJUTLA 13.6N 89.8W 1531Z 27 FEB
GUATEMALA SIPICATE 13.9N 91.2W 1539Z 27 FEB
FR. POLYNESIA RIKITEA 23.1S 135.0W 1542Z 27 FEB
HIVA OA 10.0S 139.0W 1723Z 27 FEB
PAPEETE 17.5S 149.6W 1748Z 27 FEB
MEXICO PUERTO MADERO 14.8N 92.5W 1552Z 27 FEB
ACAPULCO 16.9N 99.9W 1615Z 27 FEB
MANZANILLO 19.1N 104.3W 1709Z 27 FEB
SOCORRO 18.8N 111.0W 1719Z 27 FEB
CABO SAN LUCAS 22.8N 110.0W 1749Z 27 FEB
MAZATLAN 23.2N 106.4W 1753Z 27 FEB
PUNTA ABREOJOS 26.7N 113.6W 1856Z 27 FEB
ENSENADA 31.8N 116.8W 2016Z 27 FEB
COOK ISLANDS RAROTONGA 21.2S 159.8W 1814Z 27 FEB
PENRYN IS. 8.9S 157.8W 1925Z 27 FEB
PUKAPUKA IS. 10.8S 165.9W 1950Z 27 FEB
KIRIBATI FLINT IS. 11.4S 151.8W 1836Z 27 FEB
MALDEN IS. 3.9S 154.9W 1934Z 27 FEB
CHRISTMAS IS. 2.0N 157.5W 2028Z 27 FEB
KANTON IS. 2.8S 171.7W 2112Z 27 FEB
TARAWA IS. 1.5N 173.0E 2258Z 27 FEB
KERMADEC IS RAOUL IS. 29.2S 177.9W 1912Z 27 FEB
NIUE NIUE IS. 19.0S 170.0W 1918Z 27 FEB
NEW ZEALAND EAST CAPE 37.7S 178.5E 1918Z 27 FEB
GISBORNE 38.7S 178.0E 1922Z 27 FEB
DUNEDIN 45.9S 170.5E 1952Z 27 FEB
NAPIER 39.5S 176.9E 1954Z 27 FEB
WELLINGTON 41.3S 174.8E 1955Z 27 FEB
MILFORD SOUND 44.6S 167.9E 2005Z 27 FEB
NORTH CAPE 34.4S 173.3E 2010Z 27 FEB
BLUFF 46.6S 168.3E 2030Z 27 FEB
LYTTELTON 43.6S 172.7E 2040Z 27 FEB
AUCKLAND(E) 36.7S 175.0E 2056Z 27 FEB
NELSON 41.3S 173.3E 2127Z 27 FEB
WESTPORT 41.8S 171.6E 2129Z 27 FEB
AUCKLAND(W) 37.1S 174.2E 2140Z 27 FEB
NEW PLYMOUTH 39.1S 174.1E 2219Z 27 FEB
TONGA NUKUALOFA 21.0S 175.2W 1940Z 27 FEB
AMERICAN SAMOA PAGO PAGO 14.3S 170.7W 1951Z 27 FEB
SAMOA APIA 13.8S 171.8W 2006Z 27 FEB
JARVIS IS. JARVIS IS. 0.4S 160.1W 2026Z 27 FEB
WALLIS-FUTUNA WALLIS IS. 13.2S 176.2W 2028Z 27 FEB
TOKELAU NUKUNONU IS. 9.2S 171.8W 2030Z 27 FEB
FIJI SUVA 18.1S 178.4E 2104Z 27 FEB
AUSTRALIA HOBART 43.3S 147.6E 2105Z 27 FEB
SYDNEY 33.9S 151.4E 2146Z 27 FEB
BRISBANE 27.2S 153.3E 2310Z 27 FEB
GLADSTONE 23.8S 151.4E 0101Z 28 FEB
CAIRNS 16.7S 145.8E 0159Z 28 FEB
MACKAY 21.1S 149.3E 0251Z 28 FEB
HAWAII HILO 19.7N 155.1W 2119Z 27 FEB
HONOLULU 21.3N 157.9W 2152Z 27 FEB
NAWILIWILI 22.0N 159.4W 2158Z 27 FEB
PALMYRA IS. PALMYRA IS. 6.3N 162.4W 2124Z 27 FEB
TUVALU FUNAFUTI IS. 7.9S 178.5E 2125Z 27 FEB
VANUATU ANATOM IS. 20.2S 169.9E 2137Z 27 FEB
ESPERITU SANTO 15.1S 167.3E 2235Z 27 FEB
HOWLAND-BAKER HOWLAND IS. 0.6N 176.6W 2154Z 27 FEB
NEW CALEDONIA NOUMEA 22.3S 166.5E 2218Z 27 FEB
JOHNSTON IS. JOHNSTON IS. 16.7N 169.5W 2245Z 27 FEB
SOLOMON IS. KIRAKIRA 10.4S 161.9E 2321Z 27 FEB
MUNDA 8.4S 157.2E 0001Z 28 FEB
GHATERE 7.8S 159.2E 0001Z 28 FEB
AUKI 8.8S 160.6E 0004Z 28 FEB
HONIARA 9.3S 160.0E 0004Z 28 FEB
FALAMAE 7.4S 155.6E 0017Z 28 FEB
PANGGOE 6.9S 157.2E 0020Z 28 FEB
NAURU NAURU 0.5S 166.9E 2331Z 27 FEB
MARSHALL IS. MAJURO 7.1N 171.4E 2339Z 27 FEB
KWAJALEIN 8.7N 167.7E 0013Z 28 FEB
ENIWETOK 11.4N 162.3E 0102Z 28 FEB
MIDWAY IS. MIDWAY IS. 28.2N 177.4W 0022Z 28 FEB
KOSRAE KOSRAE IS. 5.5N 163.0E 0026Z 28 FEB
PAPUA NEW GUINE AMUN 6.0S 154.7E 0036Z 28 FEB
KIETA 6.1S 155.6E 0038Z 28 FEB
RABAUL 4.2S 152.3E 0102Z 28 FEB
PORT MORESBY 9.3S 146.9E 0123Z 28 FEB
LAE 6.8S 147.0E 0128Z 28 FEB
KAVIENG 2.5S 150.7E 0135Z 28 FEB
MADANG 5.2S 145.8E 0154Z 28 FEB
MANUS IS. 2.0S 147.5E 0214Z 28 FEB
WEWAK 3.5S 143.6E 0237Z 28 FEB
VANIMO 2.6S 141.3E 0258Z 28 FEB
POHNPEI POHNPEI IS. 7.0N 158.2E 0111Z 28 FEB
WAKE IS. WAKE IS. 19.3N 166.6E 0112Z 28 FEB
CHUUK CHUUK IS. 7.4N 151.8E 0213Z 28 FEB
RUSSIA MEDNNY IS 54.7N 167.4E 0236Z 28 FEB
UST KAMCHATSK 56.1N 162.6E 0302Z 28 FEB
PETROPAVLOVSK K 53.2N 159.6E 0333Z 28 FEB
URUP IS 46.1N 150.5E 0354Z 28 FEB
SEVERO KURILSK 50.8N 156.1E 0410Z 28 FEB
MARCUS IS. MARCUS IS. 24.3N 154.0E 0248Z 28 FEB
INDONESIA JAYAPURA 2.4S 140.8E 0302Z 28 FEB
WARSA 0.6S 135.8E 0345Z 28 FEB
MANOKWARI 0.8S 134.2E 0405Z 28 FEB
SORONG 0.8S 131.1E 0433Z 28 FEB
BEREBERE 2.5N 128.7E 0452Z 28 FEB
PATANI 0.4N 128.8E 0505Z 28 FEB
GEME 4.6N 126.8E 0512Z 28 FEB
N. MARIANAS SAIPAN 15.3N 145.8E 0303Z 28 FEB
GUAM GUAM 13.4N 144.7E 0311Z 28 FEB
YAP YAP IS. 9.5N 138.1E 0352Z 28 FEB
BELAU MALAKAL 7.3N 134.5E 0413Z 28 FEB
JAPAN KUSHIRO 42.9N 144.3E 0435Z 28 FEB
KATSUURA 35.1N 140.3E 0453Z 28 FEB
HACHINOHE 40.5N 141.5E 0509Z 28 FEB
SHIMIZU 32.8N 133.0E 0557Z 28 FEB
OKINAWA 26.2N 127.8E 0610Z 28 FEB
PHILIPPINES DAVAO 6.8N 125.7E 0527Z 28 FEB
PALANAN 17.1N 122.6E 0559Z 28 FEB
LEGASPI 13.2N 123.8E 0604Z 28 FEB
CHINESE TAIPEI HUALIEN 24.0N 121.6E 0626Z 28 FEB
HUALIEN 24.0N 121.7E 0626Z 28 FEB
CHILUNG 25.2N 121.8E 0654Z 28 FEB
TAITUNG 22.7N 121.2E 0655Z 28 FEB
BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
THE TSUNAMI WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
THE WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS
FOR ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...OREGON...CALIFORNIA.
Here is a link to the PTWC:
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/ptwc/?region=1
The West Coast & Alaska Tsunami Warning Center is here:
http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/
A Tsunami Advisory has been issued from southern California north through the Aleutian Islands.
COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN AND INCLUDING THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO
BORDER TO ATTU ALASKA
803 AM PST SAT FEB 27 2010
...A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WHICH INCLUDES THE
COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA - OREGON - WASHINGTON - BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO
ATTU ALASKA...
PERSONS IN TSUNAMI ADVISORY AREAS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE
WATER... OFF THE BEACH AND OUT OF HARBORS AND MARINAS.
TSUNAMI ADVISORIES MEAN THAT A TSUNAMI CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG CURRENTS OR WAVES DANGEROUS TO PERSONS IN OR VERY NEAR
WATER IS IMMINENT OF EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD INUNDATION
IS NOT EXPECTED FOR AREAS IN AN ADVISORY. TSUNAMIS ARE A SERIES OF
WAVES POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERAL HOURS AFTER INITIAL ARRIVAL
TIME. ESTIMATED TIMES OF INITIAL WAVE ARRIVAL FOR SELECTED
SITES IN THE ADVISORY ARE PROVIDED BELOW.
LA JOLLA-CA 1202 PST FEB 27 YAKUTAT-AK 1619 AKST FEB 27
SANTA BARBARA-CA 1231 PST FEB 27 KODIAK-AK 1628 AKST FEB 27
SAN FRANCISCO-CA 1326 PST FEB 27 SAND PT.-AK 1629 AKST FEB 27
CRESCENT CITY-CA 1346 PST FEB 27 JUNEAU-AK 1635 AKST FEB 27
CHARLESTON-OR 1402 PST FEB 27 DUTCH HARBOR-AK 1638 AKST FEB 27
SEASIDE-OR 1446 PST FEB 27 SEWARD-AK 1639 AKST FEB 27
WESTPORT-WA 1457 PST FEB 27 ADAK-AK 1642 AKST FEB 27
NEAH BAY-WA 1507 PST FEB 27 VALDEZ-AK 1657 AKST FEB 27
TOFINO-BC 1515 PST FEB 27 CORDOVA-AK 1706 AKST FEB 27
LANGARA-BC 1551 PST FEB 27 COLD BAY-AK 1709 AKST FEB 27
SITKA-AK 1529 AKST FEB 27 SHEMYA-AK 1721 AKST FEB 27
KETCHIKAN-AK 1549 AKST FEB 27 HOMER-AK 1739 AKST FEB 27
FOR ARRIVAL TIMES AT ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS SEE
WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV
ED
UPDATE FROM MESSAGE #3
TSUNAMI WATCH IS CANCELLED.
UPDATE FROM MESSAGE #2
NOTE: MAGNITUDE IS REDUCED FROM 7.3 TO 7.1
THERE ARE NO SEA LEVEL READINGS YET FOR THIS EVENT. READINGS
FROM THE NEAREST GAUGES SHOULD BE RECEIVED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
At 4:53PM EST a major earthquake occured near Port au Prince, Haiti. Magnitude was 7.3 and coordinates of the epicenter are 18.5N 72.5W. The epicenter is in shallow water and a local tsunami was generated. Extensive damage in Haiti. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center is issuing warnings.
"TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
2203 UTC TUE JAN 12 2010
THIS MESSAGE APPLIES TO COUNTRIES WITHIN AND BORDERING THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
... A LOCAL TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT ...
A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
HAITI / CUBA / BAHAMAS / DOMINICAN REP
FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE CARIBBEAN COVERED BY THIS MESSAGE...IT IS
FOR INFORMATION ONLY AT THIS TIME.
THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME - 2153Z 12 JAN 2010
COORDINATES - 18.5 NORTH 72.5 WEST
LOCATION - HAITI REGION
MAGNITUDE - 7.3
EVALUATION
A DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT DOES NOT EXIST BASED ON
HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.
HOWEVER - THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOCAL TSUNAMI THAT
COULD AFFECT COASTS LOCATED USUALLY NO MORE THAN A HUNDRED
KILOMETERS FROM THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. AUTHORITIES FOR THE
REGION NEAR THE EPICENTER SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS POSSIBILITY.
AREAS FURTHER FROM THE EPICENTER COULD EXPERIENCE SMALL SEA
LEVEL CHANGES AND STRONG OR UNUSUAL COASTAL CURRENTS.
ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTS
WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.
LOCATION FORECAST POINT COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME
-------------------------------- ------------ ------------
HAITI JEREMIE 18.6N 74.1W 2224Z 12 JAN
PORT-AU-PRINCE 18.5N 72.4W 2229Z 12 JAN
CAP-HAITEN 19.8N 72.2W 2255Z 12 JAN
CUBA BARACOA 20.4N 74.5W 2249Z 12 JAN
BAHAMAS GREAT INAGUA 20.9N 73.7W 2246Z 12 JAN
DOMINICAN REP PUERTO PLATA 19.8N 70.7W 2304Z 12 JAN
SANTO DOMINGO 18.5N 69.9W 2337Z 12 JAN
ADDITIONAL BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI
WARNING CENTER FOR THIS EVENT AS MORE INFORMATION
BECOMES AVAILABLE."
Although not a meteorological event, it seemed appropriate to provide some information to anyone with an interest in this disaster. At this time a major tsunami event in the Atlantic basin is not expected.
ED
TSUNAMI WATCH IS CANCELLED.
UPDATE FROM MESSAGE #2
NOTE: MAGNITUDE IS REDUCED FROM 7.3 TO 7.1
THERE ARE NO SEA LEVEL READINGS YET FOR THIS EVENT. READINGS
FROM THE NEAREST GAUGES SHOULD BE RECEIVED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
At 4:53PM EST a major earthquake occured near Port au Prince, Haiti. Magnitude was 7.3 and coordinates of the epicenter are 18.5N 72.5W. The epicenter is in shallow water and a local tsunami was generated. Extensive damage in Haiti. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center is issuing warnings.
"TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
2203 UTC TUE JAN 12 2010
THIS MESSAGE APPLIES TO COUNTRIES WITHIN AND BORDERING THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
... A LOCAL TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT ...
A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
HAITI / CUBA / BAHAMAS / DOMINICAN REP
FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE CARIBBEAN COVERED BY THIS MESSAGE...IT IS
FOR INFORMATION ONLY AT THIS TIME.
THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME - 2153Z 12 JAN 2010
COORDINATES - 18.5 NORTH 72.5 WEST
LOCATION - HAITI REGION
MAGNITUDE - 7.3
EVALUATION
A DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT DOES NOT EXIST BASED ON
HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.
HOWEVER - THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOCAL TSUNAMI THAT
COULD AFFECT COASTS LOCATED USUALLY NO MORE THAN A HUNDRED
KILOMETERS FROM THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. AUTHORITIES FOR THE
REGION NEAR THE EPICENTER SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS POSSIBILITY.
AREAS FURTHER FROM THE EPICENTER COULD EXPERIENCE SMALL SEA
LEVEL CHANGES AND STRONG OR UNUSUAL COASTAL CURRENTS.
ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTS
WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.
LOCATION FORECAST POINT COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME
-------------------------------- ------------ ------------
HAITI JEREMIE 18.6N 74.1W 2224Z 12 JAN
PORT-AU-PRINCE 18.5N 72.4W 2229Z 12 JAN
CAP-HAITEN 19.8N 72.2W 2255Z 12 JAN
CUBA BARACOA 20.4N 74.5W 2249Z 12 JAN
BAHAMAS GREAT INAGUA 20.9N 73.7W 2246Z 12 JAN
DOMINICAN REP PUERTO PLATA 19.8N 70.7W 2304Z 12 JAN
SANTO DOMINGO 18.5N 69.9W 2337Z 12 JAN
ADDITIONAL BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI
WARNING CENTER FOR THIS EVENT AS MORE INFORMATION
BECOMES AVAILABLE."
Although not a meteorological event, it seemed appropriate to provide some information to anyone with an interest in this disaster. At this time a major tsunami event in the Atlantic basin is not expected.
ED
Ida certainly poses some interesting possibilities regarding her future track. NHC solution runs her up to the panhandle where she gets absorbed by a (mostly) stationary front, with the storm becoming extratropical on Tuesday. Tropical models run the hurricane toward the panhandle (by then a tropical storm again) and then turn it east and southeast over or close to Florida’s west coast and weaken the storm but no extratropical transition. GFS runs the storm northward in the Gulf of Mexico, transitions it to an extratropical system and sends it across the extreme northern peninsula toward reformation off the South Carolina coast.
Upper level 300mb progs suggest strong northwesterly winds moving over the Florida peninsula – which would lend support to the tropical models (HWRF/GFDL) scenario and pretty much negate the GFS solution. The light shear zone that Ida is currently moving through is being shoved a little northward into the southeastern Gulf by the trough over Mexico, however, strong westerly winds are still evident above 25N so Ida should begin to weaken by Sunday evening as she moves northward in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Does Ida get absorbed by the front as she nears the panhandle, or does she get shoved southeastward by the building ridge to the north and the strong upper northwesterly flow? The Saturday projections seemed to be a little too far to the west beyond Monday evening, however, AF Recon has confirmed that the center of the hurricane is actually located about 50 miles further to the west than what had been previously assumed. Could the storm make landfall in the central panhandle before being absorbed or shoved southeastward? Its still too early to tell, but I have trouble with a mostly zonal front absorbing a healthy extratropical system so I’m eliminating that scenario. There is always the possibility that she simply dies out as a result of the westerly windshear in the northern Gulf. A strong pressure gradient is already in place, so windy conditions and rough seas in the southeast and along the northeast Gulf coast well into this week.
ED
Upper level 300mb progs suggest strong northwesterly winds moving over the Florida peninsula – which would lend support to the tropical models (HWRF/GFDL) scenario and pretty much negate the GFS solution. The light shear zone that Ida is currently moving through is being shoved a little northward into the southeastern Gulf by the trough over Mexico, however, strong westerly winds are still evident above 25N so Ida should begin to weaken by Sunday evening as she moves northward in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Does Ida get absorbed by the front as she nears the panhandle, or does she get shoved southeastward by the building ridge to the north and the strong upper northwesterly flow? The Saturday projections seemed to be a little too far to the west beyond Monday evening, however, AF Recon has confirmed that the center of the hurricane is actually located about 50 miles further to the west than what had been previously assumed. Could the storm make landfall in the central panhandle before being absorbed or shoved southeastward? Its still too early to tell, but I have trouble with a mostly zonal front absorbing a healthy extratropical system so I’m eliminating that scenario. There is always the possibility that she simply dies out as a result of the westerly windshear in the northern Gulf. A strong pressure gradient is already in place, so windy conditions and rough seas in the southeast and along the northeast Gulf coast well into this week.
ED
Update - 11 October
The arrival (and rapid departure) of heavily sheared Grace and Henri have increased the named storm total for the season to 8 - now the lowest total since 1997. These statistical additions have altered the dynamic with regard to an early close to the season - nothing remarkable about October 8th as the end of a season - but they do force another look into the 2010 possibilities.
With continued emphasis from NOAA for a continued moderate to strong El Nino over the upcoming winter, the seasonal outlook for 2010 seems to hinge on whether the forecasted ENSO event declines rapidly by April/May into June, or if it continues well into the 2010 summer - and that's a forecast that is far too early to make at this time. If El Nino persists, a 2010 seasonal outlook of 8/4/1 seems reasonable with 1973, 1993, 1968 and 1987 as the best analog years. If El Nino subsides in the late spring / early summer then a total for the upcoming season of 12/5/2 is more likely with 1978, 1988, 1966 and 1998 as the best analog years. The 'timing' of the return to ENSO neutral conditions will determine whether 2010 is a season of continued below normal activity or a return to normal or slightly above normal activity.
Original Post
The Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea are dry aloft. The southern subtropical jet stream is well established from the Gulf through the Caribbean Sea and extends eastward to western Africa. Windshear is moderate to strong in all of the Atlantic basin tropical cyclone genesis zones. Easterly waves over western Africa have diminished in magnitude. If the season is over, and it might indeed be, it would be the earliest end to the season (September 12th) ever recorded in the past 158 years.
In 1918 the season ended on September 14th, in 1855 and 1930 it was September 17th and in 1914 the only storm of that season ended on September 19th. There is still a chance for another hybrid subtropical type of system – but not much of a chance. There is a better chance that the next named system might not show up until next July. The current moderate El Nino is expected to strengthen during the winter, but it will probably slacken off considerably by early summer.
Nobody came close on the seasonal forecast totals for this year – even if another storm should increase the totals for the season. Everybody (myself included) was too high with their seasonal outlooks for named storms and hurricanes. With six named storms so far, this season in the quietest since 1986 in the Atlantic basin.
Its actually not too difficult to get an early hint into what the 2010 season might look like. If the El Nino drops off by early summer, the best analog years for SST anomaly would be 1966, 1958 and 1973 in that order – which would yield a more normal season with storm totals of 10/6/3 or 11/7/4.
ED
The arrival (and rapid departure) of heavily sheared Grace and Henri have increased the named storm total for the season to 8 - now the lowest total since 1997. These statistical additions have altered the dynamic with regard to an early close to the season - nothing remarkable about October 8th as the end of a season - but they do force another look into the 2010 possibilities.
With continued emphasis from NOAA for a continued moderate to strong El Nino over the upcoming winter, the seasonal outlook for 2010 seems to hinge on whether the forecasted ENSO event declines rapidly by April/May into June, or if it continues well into the 2010 summer - and that's a forecast that is far too early to make at this time. If El Nino persists, a 2010 seasonal outlook of 8/4/1 seems reasonable with 1973, 1993, 1968 and 1987 as the best analog years. If El Nino subsides in the late spring / early summer then a total for the upcoming season of 12/5/2 is more likely with 1978, 1988, 1966 and 1998 as the best analog years. The 'timing' of the return to ENSO neutral conditions will determine whether 2010 is a season of continued below normal activity or a return to normal or slightly above normal activity.
Original Post
The Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea are dry aloft. The southern subtropical jet stream is well established from the Gulf through the Caribbean Sea and extends eastward to western Africa. Windshear is moderate to strong in all of the Atlantic basin tropical cyclone genesis zones. Easterly waves over western Africa have diminished in magnitude. If the season is over, and it might indeed be, it would be the earliest end to the season (September 12th) ever recorded in the past 158 years.
In 1918 the season ended on September 14th, in 1855 and 1930 it was September 17th and in 1914 the only storm of that season ended on September 19th. There is still a chance for another hybrid subtropical type of system – but not much of a chance. There is a better chance that the next named system might not show up until next July. The current moderate El Nino is expected to strengthen during the winter, but it will probably slacken off considerably by early summer.
Nobody came close on the seasonal forecast totals for this year – even if another storm should increase the totals for the season. Everybody (myself included) was too high with their seasonal outlooks for named storms and hurricanes. With six named storms so far, this season in the quietest since 1986 in the Atlantic basin.
Its actually not too difficult to get an early hint into what the 2010 season might look like. If the El Nino drops off by early summer, the best analog years for SST anomaly would be 1966, 1958 and 1973 in that order – which would yield a more normal season with storm totals of 10/6/3 or 11/7/4.
ED
...or maybe 'If you are going'? At first it seemed like Erika was going to be a nightmare to forecast but if you throw out the models and their forecasts (ALL of them), then maybe its not a nightmare after all. Most of the models utilize the centerpoint initialization data provided by the Hurricane Center (any Center - U.S., Canadian, or U.K.), but if that starting point data is wrong then the model output hasn't got a chance at being anywhere near accurate.
This morning Erika has thrown out yet another low-level swirl - and some of these have been utilized as the honest-to-goodness real time you gotta believe it centerpoint - with horrible results in the model outputs. The initial forecast by NHC is going to have a forecast error of about 225 miles - at the 48 hour point - and probably close to 300 miles at the 72 hour point - ouch!
At 03/15Z, the latest low-level swirl was located at 16.8N 64.3W (moving west) and the NHC location was given as 16.9N 63.4W (moving west northwest). Its quite possible that the actual location was 16.3N 61.5W - over Guadeloupe - moving slowly westward. At 15Z, Guadeloupe had moderate rain with a south wind gusting to 31mph. What appears to be the primary southern rainband would coincide nicely with this location.
If the location suggested above is anywhere closer to reality, then the current model output is already toast (burned toast). Okay, so if thats where she is, then where does she go if she goes anywhere? Well if she stays on more of a generally west to slightly north of due west movement, the upper environment would be a little more favorable (as suggested by SSEC steering winds). What I mean is favorable to hold together, not necessarily favorable to strengthen much. As an aside, the best track match thus far in the hurricane archives is Holly, 1969, but to be fair, see also Storm #3 in 1880, Ella in 1958, and maybe even Cleo in 1964 (which was a lot stronger when it went through the Islands).
Possible scenarios include dissipation - the eventual toll of the windshear, but Erika has shown remarkable tenacity with regard to the windshear that has been disrupting her for the last couple of days. Another scenario would be total disruption if she hits Hispaniola as a weak system. A third possibility, and one that I tend to favor, would keep Erika plodding west and west nothwestward hitting the Isthmus of Haiti (which would probably not weaken her too much) and then eastern Cuba (which would weaken her significantly) and finally re-entering the Atlantic on a more north northwesterly course toward the far western Bahamas as a much-weakened system trying to reorganize.
Since all of these possibilities have some level of reality, the message is simply to maintain a close watch with this storm, even if she is downgraded to an open tropical wave for a portion of her journey to the west northwest.
ED
This morning Erika has thrown out yet another low-level swirl - and some of these have been utilized as the honest-to-goodness real time you gotta believe it centerpoint - with horrible results in the model outputs. The initial forecast by NHC is going to have a forecast error of about 225 miles - at the 48 hour point - and probably close to 300 miles at the 72 hour point - ouch!
At 03/15Z, the latest low-level swirl was located at 16.8N 64.3W (moving west) and the NHC location was given as 16.9N 63.4W (moving west northwest). Its quite possible that the actual location was 16.3N 61.5W - over Guadeloupe - moving slowly westward. At 15Z, Guadeloupe had moderate rain with a south wind gusting to 31mph. What appears to be the primary southern rainband would coincide nicely with this location.
If the location suggested above is anywhere closer to reality, then the current model output is already toast (burned toast). Okay, so if thats where she is, then where does she go if she goes anywhere? Well if she stays on more of a generally west to slightly north of due west movement, the upper environment would be a little more favorable (as suggested by SSEC steering winds). What I mean is favorable to hold together, not necessarily favorable to strengthen much. As an aside, the best track match thus far in the hurricane archives is Holly, 1969, but to be fair, see also Storm #3 in 1880, Ella in 1958, and maybe even Cleo in 1964 (which was a lot stronger when it went through the Islands).
Possible scenarios include dissipation - the eventual toll of the windshear, but Erika has shown remarkable tenacity with regard to the windshear that has been disrupting her for the last couple of days. Another scenario would be total disruption if she hits Hispaniola as a weak system. A third possibility, and one that I tend to favor, would keep Erika plodding west and west nothwestward hitting the Isthmus of Haiti (which would probably not weaken her too much) and then eastern Cuba (which would weaken her significantly) and finally re-entering the Atlantic on a more north northwesterly course toward the far western Bahamas as a much-weakened system trying to reorganize.
Since all of these possibilities have some level of reality, the message is simply to maintain a close watch with this storm, even if she is downgraded to an open tropical wave for a portion of her journey to the west northwest.
ED
Updated - 06/30/09
Based on seasonal SST values before a significant El Nino event, 1965 and 1986 are now the best analog years for this seasons expected tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin. Although many factors contribute to a seasonal forecast, historical SST data suggest that 2010 (next year) will see a return to a more normal season of activity in the Atlantic basin (see totals for 1958, 1970, 1973, 1988, 1995, 1998, 2005 and 2007). Exceptions were 1983, 1987 and 1992. It is worth noting that significant El Nino events rarely last more than a year, whereas La Nina events often last two or three years.
Two other years with similar El Nino, SST and atmospheric flow patterns were 1957 and 1972
Original Article
There is now a high probability that a moderate to strong El Nino event will be in place in the Pacific ENSO regions for this hurricane season. The latest 6-Month SST Forecasts continue to trend toward a healthy El Nino event.
First, a look back at some analysis that was posted in 2007:
"Definitions / Number of Events / Percentage:
ENSO Neutral: SST anomaly from -0.5 to +0.5 (33 seasons since 1950) 58%
Moderate El Nino: +0.6 to +0.9 (10 seasons) 18%
Strong El Nino: +1.0 or greater (2 seasons) 3%
Moderate La Nina: -0.6 to -0.9 (8 seasons) 14%
Strong La Nina: -1.0 or greater (4 seasons) 7%
Low activity: 8 named storms or less (20 seasons) 35%
Normal activity: 9 to 13 named storms (27 seasons) 47%
High activity: 14 named storms or more (10 seasons) 18%
The Region 3.4 SST pre-season aggregate average anomaly period: May/June/July. The strongest El Nino pre-season average anomaly for this period was +1.4 in 1997. The strongest La Nina pre-season average anomaly for this period was -1.2 in 1950 and 1988.
Neutral pre-season anomaly vs season totals:
7 low activity seasons / 21% of all Neutral seasons
17 normal activity seasons / 52%
9 high activity seasons / 27%
Moderate pre-season El Nino vs season totals:
9 low activity seasons / 90%
1 normal activity season / 10%
no high activity seasons
Strong pre-season El Nino vs season totals:
2 low activity seasons / 100%
no normal or high activity seasons
Moderate pre-season La Nina vs season totals:
2 low activity seasons / 25%
5 normal activity seasons / 63%
1 high activity season / 12%
Strong pre-season La Nina vs season totals:
no low activity seasons
4 normal activity seasons / 100%
no high activity seasons
When the M/J/J average SST anomaly is +0.6 or greater, 92% of the time the season storm total will be 8 named storms or less. When that average is -0.6 or greater, 92% of the time the season storm total will be 13 named storms or less (and 75% of the time the season storm total will be 9 to 13 named storms, i.e., a normal season. Note that a normal season, because of the increased activity since 1995, is now 11 named storms). A strong pre-season La Nina has never resulted in a high activity storm season. Ninety percent of high activity seasons occur under ENSO neutral pre-season conditions."
The M/J/J SST anomaly for this year will probably be in the +0.7 to +1.1 range - and if this should materialize, a lot of high pre-season storm total predictions are in trouble. With the Atlantic basin likely to remain cooler than normal, the expectation for a below normal season is greater than 90%. Current and anticipated ENSO conditions for a moderate to strong early season El Nino suggest that the best analog years for this season are 1957, 1965, 1982 and 1997 (in no particular order). A prediction of 7/3/1 might be a lot closer to the final total for this season.
Cheers,
ED
Based on seasonal SST values before a significant El Nino event, 1965 and 1986 are now the best analog years for this seasons expected tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin. Although many factors contribute to a seasonal forecast, historical SST data suggest that 2010 (next year) will see a return to a more normal season of activity in the Atlantic basin (see totals for 1958, 1970, 1973, 1988, 1995, 1998, 2005 and 2007). Exceptions were 1983, 1987 and 1992. It is worth noting that significant El Nino events rarely last more than a year, whereas La Nina events often last two or three years.
Two other years with similar El Nino, SST and atmospheric flow patterns were 1957 and 1972
Original Article
There is now a high probability that a moderate to strong El Nino event will be in place in the Pacific ENSO regions for this hurricane season. The latest 6-Month SST Forecasts continue to trend toward a healthy El Nino event.
First, a look back at some analysis that was posted in 2007:
"Definitions / Number of Events / Percentage:
ENSO Neutral: SST anomaly from -0.5 to +0.5 (33 seasons since 1950) 58%
Moderate El Nino: +0.6 to +0.9 (10 seasons) 18%
Strong El Nino: +1.0 or greater (2 seasons) 3%
Moderate La Nina: -0.6 to -0.9 (8 seasons) 14%
Strong La Nina: -1.0 or greater (4 seasons) 7%
Low activity: 8 named storms or less (20 seasons) 35%
Normal activity: 9 to 13 named storms (27 seasons) 47%
High activity: 14 named storms or more (10 seasons) 18%
The Region 3.4 SST pre-season aggregate average anomaly period: May/June/July. The strongest El Nino pre-season average anomaly for this period was +1.4 in 1997. The strongest La Nina pre-season average anomaly for this period was -1.2 in 1950 and 1988.
Neutral pre-season anomaly vs season totals:
7 low activity seasons / 21% of all Neutral seasons
17 normal activity seasons / 52%
9 high activity seasons / 27%
Moderate pre-season El Nino vs season totals:
9 low activity seasons / 90%
1 normal activity season / 10%
no high activity seasons
Strong pre-season El Nino vs season totals:
2 low activity seasons / 100%
no normal or high activity seasons
Moderate pre-season La Nina vs season totals:
2 low activity seasons / 25%
5 normal activity seasons / 63%
1 high activity season / 12%
Strong pre-season La Nina vs season totals:
no low activity seasons
4 normal activity seasons / 100%
no high activity seasons
When the M/J/J average SST anomaly is +0.6 or greater, 92% of the time the season storm total will be 8 named storms or less. When that average is -0.6 or greater, 92% of the time the season storm total will be 13 named storms or less (and 75% of the time the season storm total will be 9 to 13 named storms, i.e., a normal season. Note that a normal season, because of the increased activity since 1995, is now 11 named storms). A strong pre-season La Nina has never resulted in a high activity storm season. Ninety percent of high activity seasons occur under ENSO neutral pre-season conditions."
The M/J/J SST anomaly for this year will probably be in the +0.7 to +1.1 range - and if this should materialize, a lot of high pre-season storm total predictions are in trouble. With the Atlantic basin likely to remain cooler than normal, the expectation for a below normal season is greater than 90%. Current and anticipated ENSO conditions for a moderate to strong early season El Nino suggest that the best analog years for this season are 1957, 1965, 1982 and 1997 (in no particular order). A prediction of 7/3/1 might be a lot closer to the final total for this season.
Cheers,
ED
Update - Friday, 1PM CDT
Hurricane Ike now about 165 miles southeast of Galveston and the forward motion is becoming more northwesterly at 10 knots. This motion is likely to continue and should place Ike onshore near Crystal Beach in the Galveston area around 3AM CDT early Saturday morning - probably as a strong Category II hurricane.
ED
Original Article
Hurricane Ike, now at 85 knots, continues to move toward the north central Texas coast. Ike has a most unusual structure with an outer wind maxima - at times resembling a secondary eye within the eyewall (and sometimes two of these) rotating around the inner center of the hurricane. This structure expands the field of maximum winds considerably - rather than just a smaller area around the center - and if this structure should continue for the next 36 hours or so, the risk of any significant intensification seems unlikely.
Similar to Gustav, and to a lesser extent Fay, the inner core of Ike has not recovered after its second landfall over western Cuba and Ike's entrance into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Perhaps a combination of factors created the unusual structure of this storm - the pull from the shortwave that passed to the north, the dry air entrainment from the west through southwest (that still continues to some degree) and the significant expansion of the storm itself are possible contributing factors. Ike will certainly become an interesting future case study.
Although unusual in appearance, Ike is still a storm that presents many dangers. Even if the intensity remains unchanged, these additional wind maxima will greatly expand the area of highest winds upon landfall to an area much larger than that which would normally be expected. From the precise point of landfall (which now appears to be in the vicinity of Sargent, Texas) the zone of strong winds could extend from 30 miles to the south to 45 miles to the north. NHC notes that there is still plenty of time for the center to contract and the hurricane to intensify. It is also within the realm of possibility for Ike to form a 50 to 60 mile wide eye prior to landfall. Ike is one storm where the axiom 'don't just pay attention to the point of landfall' is very important.
ED
Hurricane Ike now about 165 miles southeast of Galveston and the forward motion is becoming more northwesterly at 10 knots. This motion is likely to continue and should place Ike onshore near Crystal Beach in the Galveston area around 3AM CDT early Saturday morning - probably as a strong Category II hurricane.
ED
Original Article
Hurricane Ike, now at 85 knots, continues to move toward the north central Texas coast. Ike has a most unusual structure with an outer wind maxima - at times resembling a secondary eye within the eyewall (and sometimes two of these) rotating around the inner center of the hurricane. This structure expands the field of maximum winds considerably - rather than just a smaller area around the center - and if this structure should continue for the next 36 hours or so, the risk of any significant intensification seems unlikely.
Similar to Gustav, and to a lesser extent Fay, the inner core of Ike has not recovered after its second landfall over western Cuba and Ike's entrance into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Perhaps a combination of factors created the unusual structure of this storm - the pull from the shortwave that passed to the north, the dry air entrainment from the west through southwest (that still continues to some degree) and the significant expansion of the storm itself are possible contributing factors. Ike will certainly become an interesting future case study.
Although unusual in appearance, Ike is still a storm that presents many dangers. Even if the intensity remains unchanged, these additional wind maxima will greatly expand the area of highest winds upon landfall to an area much larger than that which would normally be expected. From the precise point of landfall (which now appears to be in the vicinity of Sargent, Texas) the zone of strong winds could extend from 30 miles to the south to 45 miles to the north. NHC notes that there is still plenty of time for the center to contract and the hurricane to intensify. It is also within the realm of possibility for Ike to form a 50 to 60 mile wide eye prior to landfall. Ike is one storm where the axiom 'don't just pay attention to the point of landfall' is very important.
ED
Hurricane Ike - once again a Category IV hurricane with sustained winds of 135mph is about to vent his wrath on Grand Turk Island on his way toward eastern Cuba Ike is currently moving west southwest and should spend Sunday evening and most of Monday crossing over Cuba on a west northwesterly course. On this track, Ike will pass south of the Florida peninsula with tropical storm conditions possible on Monday and Tuesday in south Florida and into Wednesday in the Keys. Ike is expected to move slowly into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday on a west northwesterly to northwesterly course as a shortwave system passes well to his north and creates a minor weakness in the high pressure ridge that is currently guiding his movement. However after Wednesday his track gets a little murky - the weakness could continue to pull Ike to the northwest or the ridge may rebuild to his north and force a more westward track again.
Ike's track over Cuba will reduce his intensity considerably - especially when he makes contact with the high mountains of eastern Cuba. With at least 36 hours over Cuba he could be a Cat I hurricane or even a tropical storm when he exits Cuba into the southeast Gulf of Mexico. At that point, if he survives Cuba, some redevelopment is possible.
Tropical Storm Hanna is rapidly approaching Long Island this evening with winds near the center now at 60mph on a track across southeastern New England. Heavy rains have already arrived in those areas with rainfall rates of up to one inch per hour.
ED
Ike's track over Cuba will reduce his intensity considerably - especially when he makes contact with the high mountains of eastern Cuba. With at least 36 hours over Cuba he could be a Cat I hurricane or even a tropical storm when he exits Cuba into the southeast Gulf of Mexico. At that point, if he survives Cuba, some redevelopment is possible.
Tropical Storm Hanna is rapidly approaching Long Island this evening with winds near the center now at 60mph on a track across southeastern New England. Heavy rains have already arrived in those areas with rainfall rates of up to one inch per hour.
ED
Update - Sunday Afternoon
If there is such a thing as good news with regard to a hurricane it is that Hurricane Gustav did not rapidly re-develop his central core after leaving western Cuba in the early hours of Sunday morning. The eye of the hurricane is still ragged and elongated and the inner core has still not fully established itself. Based on aircraft recon, Gustav remains a low-end Category III Hurricane with sustained winds probably closer to 115mph and a central pressure of 960MB. Movement remains generally to the northwest with occasional jogs to the north northwest and the forward speed is currently about 13 or 14 knots.
With the lack of rapid reorganization of the central core and eyewall over the past ten hours, Hurricane Gustav is not likely to intensify very much (if at all) prior to landfall. He has already moved north of the warmer SSTs of the southern loop current in the Gulf of Mexico and windshear has already had some impact on the system. With slightly cooler waters ahead on his track, Gustav will be challenged to maintain a steady state prior to landfall. I don't really anticipate any significant changes in the track - maybe just a nudge to the east which could place the New Orleans area to the west of the track - but still difficult to make a firm call on this given the lighter steering currents in the north central Gulf.
Gustav's forward motion is likely to slow down just prior to or just after landfall, and this would significantly increase the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding conditions in Louisiana and Mississippi - and other areas near and east of the track after landfall. The risk area as outlined in the original article remains unchanged with isolated tornadoes possible in areas north and east of landfall. With consideration for increasing windshear and lowering SSTs, Hurricane Gustav should make landfall as a high-end Category II storm (although a low-end Category III is still possible if the forward speed picks up again).
Regardless of final intensity, every landfalling hurricane should be taken seriously and planning, preparation and protection are the keywords. The storm surge at and east of the landfall area will still be about 10 feet with surge in constricted areas up to 13 feet. Even if the storm should pass just to the east of the New Orleans area, wind driven overwash from Lake Pontchartrain could still cause serious flooding conditions. Follow the instructions of your local and state Emergency Management personnel and stay safe - and alive.
ED
Original Article
Hurricane Gustav has entered the southeastern Gulf of Mexico just off the north coast of western Cuba near 23.1N 83.8W at 11PM. Movement is still to the northwest but the forward speed slowed down a bit as the hurricane made a slight jog to the west northwest and it took him about three hours to cross over Cuba. This was probably a little longer than the NHC had anticipated. The eye clouded over and I'm sure that the intensity has dropped off somewhat, however, the eyewall structure is already rapidly rebuilding. Still looks like a general northwest track through the Gulf, although since the high pressure ridge over the southeast has been a little slower in its development, I'd expect some minor adjustments to the right in the forecast track. My best estimate right now would be a track from its current position to about 30N 90W with landfall Monday afternoon on the Louisiana delta and then near the Louisiana-Mississippi state line as a major hurricane. Gustav may still regain Cat IV intensity in the Gulf, but wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures in the northern Gulf should lower the intensity again - but not by much. If Gustav moves northwestward in the Gulf with a brisk forward speed, intensity at landfall could still be Cat IV.
With high pressure building over the southeast and Gustav passing well to the southwest and west of Florida, east central Florida will have rapidly moving squalls from the outer bands of Gustav with brief wind gusts to about 35mph Saturday night and Sunday (and perhaps a few Sunday night). The Keys and the Florida west coast may have a few gusts that are higher, but the Gulf coast from western Louisiana to the western Florida panhandle will bear the brunt of this dangerous hurricane. If your area is ordered to evacuate, don't hesitate - just do it! A storm surge of 15 to 20 feet above the normal high water line is possible in the area immediately to the east of where the eye makes landfall.
ED
If there is such a thing as good news with regard to a hurricane it is that Hurricane Gustav did not rapidly re-develop his central core after leaving western Cuba in the early hours of Sunday morning. The eye of the hurricane is still ragged and elongated and the inner core has still not fully established itself. Based on aircraft recon, Gustav remains a low-end Category III Hurricane with sustained winds probably closer to 115mph and a central pressure of 960MB. Movement remains generally to the northwest with occasional jogs to the north northwest and the forward speed is currently about 13 or 14 knots.
With the lack of rapid reorganization of the central core and eyewall over the past ten hours, Hurricane Gustav is not likely to intensify very much (if at all) prior to landfall. He has already moved north of the warmer SSTs of the southern loop current in the Gulf of Mexico and windshear has already had some impact on the system. With slightly cooler waters ahead on his track, Gustav will be challenged to maintain a steady state prior to landfall. I don't really anticipate any significant changes in the track - maybe just a nudge to the east which could place the New Orleans area to the west of the track - but still difficult to make a firm call on this given the lighter steering currents in the north central Gulf.
Gustav's forward motion is likely to slow down just prior to or just after landfall, and this would significantly increase the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding conditions in Louisiana and Mississippi - and other areas near and east of the track after landfall. The risk area as outlined in the original article remains unchanged with isolated tornadoes possible in areas north and east of landfall. With consideration for increasing windshear and lowering SSTs, Hurricane Gustav should make landfall as a high-end Category II storm (although a low-end Category III is still possible if the forward speed picks up again).
Regardless of final intensity, every landfalling hurricane should be taken seriously and planning, preparation and protection are the keywords. The storm surge at and east of the landfall area will still be about 10 feet with surge in constricted areas up to 13 feet. Even if the storm should pass just to the east of the New Orleans area, wind driven overwash from Lake Pontchartrain could still cause serious flooding conditions. Follow the instructions of your local and state Emergency Management personnel and stay safe - and alive.
ED
Original Article
Hurricane Gustav has entered the southeastern Gulf of Mexico just off the north coast of western Cuba near 23.1N 83.8W at 11PM. Movement is still to the northwest but the forward speed slowed down a bit as the hurricane made a slight jog to the west northwest and it took him about three hours to cross over Cuba. This was probably a little longer than the NHC had anticipated. The eye clouded over and I'm sure that the intensity has dropped off somewhat, however, the eyewall structure is already rapidly rebuilding. Still looks like a general northwest track through the Gulf, although since the high pressure ridge over the southeast has been a little slower in its development, I'd expect some minor adjustments to the right in the forecast track. My best estimate right now would be a track from its current position to about 30N 90W with landfall Monday afternoon on the Louisiana delta and then near the Louisiana-Mississippi state line as a major hurricane. Gustav may still regain Cat IV intensity in the Gulf, but wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures in the northern Gulf should lower the intensity again - but not by much. If Gustav moves northwestward in the Gulf with a brisk forward speed, intensity at landfall could still be Cat IV.
With high pressure building over the southeast and Gustav passing well to the southwest and west of Florida, east central Florida will have rapidly moving squalls from the outer bands of Gustav with brief wind gusts to about 35mph Saturday night and Sunday (and perhaps a few Sunday night). The Keys and the Florida west coast may have a few gusts that are higher, but the Gulf coast from western Louisiana to the western Florida panhandle will bear the brunt of this dangerous hurricane. If your area is ordered to evacuate, don't hesitate - just do it! A storm surge of 15 to 20 feet above the normal high water line is possible in the area immediately to the east of where the eye makes landfall.
ED
Fay is producing torrential rains across the Florida Big Bend and SW Georgia right now with rainfall rates averaging 1.5"/hr across the region. Rainfall rates to 4-6"/hr have been reported with the heaviest band currently extending from Thomasville, GA to Monticello, FL to Dekle Beach, FL and this will shift westward as Fay slides westward. Daily rainfall records will be broken today across this region, with 10.13" being the 24 hr rainfall record in Tallahassee to date. In some areas monthly record rainfall totals may be approached with storm total accumulations of 15" likely being the norm rather than the exception.
For Tallahassee and points west, the worst is yet to come. The airmass over the Gulf is unstable and very, very moist, resulting in the development and maintenance of intense, highly efficient rain-producing storms. With the Gulf of Mexico wide open to the south and southeast of Fay, this isn't likely to change anytime soon. Three-hourly accumulations near 10" have been observed in some spots and it is quite possible that similar totals are found in Tallahassee and nearby locales starting in just a few hours. An isolated tornado threat exists with these storms as well, although the potential may be a bit higher further to the north.
For those in my part of the world, I urge you to stay inside and do not venture out onto the roads. Many roads have been closed due to downed trees and many others will be closing due to flooding and further downed trees as the day progresses today. If you are out on the roads and come to *any* body of standing or moving water, turn around-don't drown. It only takes a small amount of water to move a car. Already many people have lost their lives in Florida due to this storm -- don't let rushing water or falling trees impact you as well. For those of you to the west, be prepared and do not let this catch you off-guard!
For Tallahassee and points west, the worst is yet to come. The airmass over the Gulf is unstable and very, very moist, resulting in the development and maintenance of intense, highly efficient rain-producing storms. With the Gulf of Mexico wide open to the south and southeast of Fay, this isn't likely to change anytime soon. Three-hourly accumulations near 10" have been observed in some spots and it is quite possible that similar totals are found in Tallahassee and nearby locales starting in just a few hours. An isolated tornado threat exists with these storms as well, although the potential may be a bit higher further to the north.
For those in my part of the world, I urge you to stay inside and do not venture out onto the roads. Many roads have been closed due to downed trees and many others will be closing due to flooding and further downed trees as the day progresses today. If you are out on the roads and come to *any* body of standing or moving water, turn around-don't drown. It only takes a small amount of water to move a car. Already many people have lost their lives in Florida due to this storm -- don't let rushing water or falling trees impact you as well. For those of you to the west, be prepared and do not let this catch you off-guard!
