CFHC Talkback For News Story #125:
Newest Talkback: 08:31 PM 10-01 EDT

Category 4 Hurricane Keith Still Moving Little
07:10 AM EDT - 01 October 2000

Keith is an amazing looking system. The folks along the Yucuatan's eastern coast are getting pounded right now. Keith is just sitting and spinning in very warm waters. It's still projected to head north, over land for a bit in the Yucatan and then into the central Gulf. What else can I say besides watch the system closely. Its slow movement prevents any serious future track talk, so the Gulf needs to watch out. I do expect it to weaken a bit over land (depends on how long it stays over land too), but not enough to get it below hurricane status.

Joyce is barely holding together and moving into the Caribbean, it may strengthen slightly once in the East Caribbean waters, but for now I'll minimize its importance.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for Isaac., Joyce, or Keith From Michael Bryson.
Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Other commentary at: Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center - Stormwarn2000 - SCOTTSVB's Hurricane Update Center - Jim Williams' Hurricane City - Gary Gray's Millennium Weather - Even More on our Links Page
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.
Live Webcam image from Florida Emergency Management's Emergency Operations Center
Florida Emergency Management Activation Page / Situation Updates

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]


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Displaying Talkbacks #12 - #22 (of 32 total)

????????????? (#12)
Posted by: cd
Posted On 11:23AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNST*)


i think it is continuing to make that cyclonic loop. i'm still not convinced on that west movement...it's not even a movement...imo.
any thoughts?

Loop cd? (#13)
Posted by:
Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 11:30AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNQT*)


My definition of a loop is a system that crosses over its previous path... Like Betsy did off the Florida coast in 65 or Elena in 85 in the GOM... This storm is basically moving very little so it can't really cross over it path in such a dramatic fashion per se. However, if your definition of a loop is something that is basically spinning in the same spot then I guess it would be a type of cyclonic loop....

high pressure (#14)
Posted by: paul Location: southeast texas
Posted On 11:31AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (RPWNQYQNQSNQPQ*)


High pressure is forecast to build westward from florida. Increasing the southerly flow into central LA. This is supposed to be what moves the storm. I believe it is not out of the question for the storm to go for enouph west as the LA/TX border. What are your thoughts. From the maps I See the front is not supposed to make it here till Thurs/Fri?

Keith (#15)
Posted by:
Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 11:50AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNUQ*)


I have been watching the loops since about 4am today, and it looks like Keith is moving more to the south now. The homes are not structured to good in that area, and I feel when this is all over we are going to hear about many who have lost their lives to this storm. I just hope we dont lose as many as we did with Mitch. This storm will be a major news event in the days to come. Has anyone heard of any reports from out of this area yet. Are their any Ham radio operators out their that can give us a report?

Keith (#16)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, Fl
Posted On 11:58AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (RQVNSNQXRNQXX*)


I just don't know where this will go.My guess is it should start moving NW TO N in the next 24hrs.Its going to be a long few days.Just have to wait and see. Joe

Keith drifting SSW .... (#17)
Posted by:
Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 12:05PM 01-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNQT*)


Looking at the latest IR sat loop Keith is definitely drifting SSW or SW....But for how long will be the big question... Maybe he will die a slow and painful death in the Yucatan...Boy he's gotta be pounding the area... I wonder what this lastest movement anomoly will do to all the modeling programs

Damage (#18)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 12:05PM 01-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNRPT*)


Bruce...I think it is located in a place where there is the 2nd largest reef besides Australia...lots of tourists there. I am praying for these people, as they need it...and regardless of where it ends up, a lot of damage has already been done, no doubt in my mind about that...I have seen rainfall estimates of 5ft per day with this thing....

land??? (#19)
Posted by: cd
Posted On 12:15PM 01-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNWQ*)


the eyewall is right on the edge of landfall. i'm not sure this thing will make landfall any time soon...especially with this recent southward movement...for now

Keith (#20)
Posted by:
Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 12:26PM 01-Oct-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNUQ*)


Those people in that area must think the world has come to an end.

Eye (#21)
Posted by: Gary Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 01:35PM 01-Oct-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)


Seems like the eye is filling. Don't know if it;s because the sun is over it or land is taking it's toll.

South Flroida Cone Of Thought (#22)
Posted by: Mike Anderson (
http://www.angelfire.com/fl4/eastcoasttropicalwea/ectwp.htm) Location: Miami Florida
Posted On 01:41PM 01-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNWQ*)


While massive Hurricane Keith gets the spotlight today there is another performer waiting at stage right. Tropical storm Joyce is becoming better organized as she heads to the wnw. Joyce should reach Hurricane status as she heads to a position just south of Jamaica in 72 H. There is a rather strong trough forecasted to head down on Thursday, Joyce could be scooped to the North in a fashion pretty much the same way hurricane Irene was last season. since Joyce would be a stronger system than Irene was she would serve as a bigger potential for Cuba and South Florida. So as you all view the loops of Keith today try paying some attention to Joyce as she has all the potential to become a visitor in the Sunshine State later in the week.

Communication from Ambergrin Caye and Caye Caulker (#23)
Posted by: Gary Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 01:53PM 01-Oct-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)


http://www.lovefm.com/910.ram
According to messages being sent to a communication board they we have a link to below, the islands of Ambergrin Caye and Caye Caulker are being devestated by the storm. There has been no communication from the people who were using battery-powered laptops since 12:30 p.m. Click here http://www.lovefm.com/910.ram to listen to a brief interview with the director of emergency services on the island in the midst of the hurricane's impact


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