CFHC Talkback For News Story #30:
Newest Talkback: 07:28 PM 08-04 EDT

When Will it Start?
02:05 PM EDT - 25 July 2000

Last year we did not see any named storms (outside of Arlene in June) until the 18th of August (with Bret, which formed in the Gulf as a major hurricane, making landfall in a nearly deserted part of the Texas coast) It looks like this year will be along those same lines, although I expect a named storm before the 18th this year. Not in July, though.

There are hints and maybes out in the Atlantic now, but at the moment nothing seems a sure bet to form. The forecasting models are not picking up anything that would last either.

Rumors have it that Dr. Gray and Co will be lowering their predictions by a hair. (Possibly by one named storm). Even so, it still would be predicted a slightly more active than an average year. Last year we wound up with 12 named storms. From Arlene to Lenny, which was unexpected. This also brings up the fact that even though we haven't seen much yet, it does NOT mean it will not be a dangerous year for the storms.

Satellite images at:
[N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Comments? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #3 (of 24 total)

Tropical Development (#1)
Posted by:
Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 03:06PM 25-Jul-2000 with id (QRNWWNQWWNSP*)

I believe we may have a possible tropical system developing in about 48-72 hours. The newest wave comming off of Africa though right now showing no signs of development except for being very active with showers and thunderstorms looks like the first real shot at a system. Upper air is forcasted to be favorable and water temperatures are approaching the magical 80 degree mark. Though development will be slow at first I do believe we may see some development out of this one. Some models are now showing a developing tropical system approaching the northeastern islands of the carribean in about 5-6 days. It may be time...Will see>>>

Last year's storms (#2)
Posted by: Steve h. Location: palm bay
Posted On 04:42PM 25-Jul-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

As I remember, we had 12 named storms not 16, from Arlene to Lenny

Doh (#3)
Posted by:
Mike C. ( Location: Newport News, VA
Posted On 04:49PM 25-Jul-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)

You are right. I can't believe I let this one slip by so easily. :)

- Mike C.

I'm still thinking that a storm will form over the weekend just to spite me.

Posted by:
Posted On 07:00PM 25-Jul-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNVS*)

Just like last year this one will start late. La Nina is fading but it probably won't be gone till late in the year, completely. That is one factor of a little above the average besides many others.I think there will be some mean Hurricanes out there late in the season.Well, that's just my theory.

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