CFHC Talkback For News Story #30:
Newest Talkback: 11:28 PM 08-04 EDT

When Will it Start?
02:05 PM EDT - 25 July 2000

Last year we did not see any named storms (outside of Arlene in June) until the 18th of August (with Bret, which formed in the Gulf as a major hurricane, making landfall in a nearly deserted part of the Texas coast) It looks like this year will be along those same lines, although I expect a named storm before the 18th this year. Not in July, though.

There are hints and maybes out in the Atlantic now, but at the moment nothing seems a sure bet to form. The forecasting models are not picking up anything that would last either.

Rumors have it that Dr. Gray and Co will be lowering their predictions by a hair. (Possibly by one named storm). Even so, it still would be predicted a slightly more active than an average year. Last year we wound up with 12 named storms. From Arlene to Lenny, which was unexpected. This also brings up the fact that even though we haven't seen much yet, it does NOT mean it will not be a dangerous year for the storms.

Satellite images at:
[N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Comments? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

- [mac]


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Displaying Talkbacks #10 - #12 (of 24 total)

Predictions. (#10)
Posted by:
Mike C. [CFHC] (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA
Posted On 06:45AM 26-Jul-2000 with id (RTNRNUSNVY*)


This morning it looks like those systems won't form. Some of these models aren't too trustworthy with storm development on the far (read furthest into the future) predictions.

I'm still holding for no named storms in July.
- Mike C.

I don't know what's going on with Mike Anderson's page, BTW. Hopefully he'll let us know some way.


Storm history to date this year (#11)
Posted by: Bill Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 01:20PM 26-Jul-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)


Hi everyone-

Still looks like the wave off Africa may come together. There are some potentially interesting developments east of Florida too.

Everyone, when talking about this year vs. last year, seems to forget we have had TWO tropical systems (tropical depressions 1 and 2) so far this year ,as opposed to one td that became a storm last year (Arlene). The comments about nothing happening after Arlene until August 18 are valid, and I see that the season this year will probably be a lot like last in terms of timing, but I just wanted to point out that we are 'ahead' of last year.

I find it quite likely in post analysis that at least one of the TDs this year will be reclassified as a TS...which would definitely make this year very similar to last year, to date...with the freak far east (for June) depression to boot.

As Accuweather is saying, the Atlantic is opening for business. Look how quickly it got busy with multiple storms last year all at once!

By the end of July, hmmm, I still won't rule that our until Friday. if 'nothing' is happening then, it'll be August. But I still think earlier than last year, and maybe in an unexpected (as opposed to off Africa) location.

Right now I'd say off Africa or east of Fl/SE coast for a July storm.

Enough ruminations! Thanks to you all for your comments, this is great. And thanks to the C brothers for this forum/site.

IHS,

Bill

Interesting link! (#12)
Posted by: Bill Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 01:52PM 26-Jul-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)


I think everyone will find this link that analyzes the correlation between season start dates and activities to be of interest.

FYI! As you can see there is no real correlation to a late start and number of storms.

IHS,

Bill

Tropical Development (#13)
Posted by:
Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 02:37PM 26-Jul-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSSNRQT*)


As of 2pm today there are signs of a slight circulation near 11n-22w and pressures are low in this area so this may be the begining of our first development of the year. Waters are at the magical 80 just west of this area so I do believe we will have a depression over the next 48 hours or so.


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