CFHC Talkback For News Story #30:
Newest Talkback: 11:28 PM 08-04 EDT

When Will it Start?
02:05 PM EDT - 25 July 2000

Last year we did not see any named storms (outside of Arlene in June) until the 18th of August (with Bret, which formed in the Gulf as a major hurricane, making landfall in a nearly deserted part of the Texas coast) It looks like this year will be along those same lines, although I expect a named storm before the 18th this year. Not in July, though.

There are hints and maybes out in the Atlantic now, but at the moment nothing seems a sure bet to form. The forecasting models are not picking up anything that would last either.

Rumors have it that Dr. Gray and Co will be lowering their predictions by a hair. (Possibly by one named storm). Even so, it still would be predicted a slightly more active than an average year. Last year we wound up with 12 named storms. From Arlene to Lenny, which was unexpected. This also brings up the fact that even though we haven't seen much yet, it does NOT mean it will not be a dangerous year for the storms.

Satellite images at:
[N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
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- [mac]


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Displaying Talkbacks #7 - #9 (of 24 total)

Models (#7)
Posted by:
Mike C. [CFHC] (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA
Posted On 07:43PM 25-Jul-2000 with id (RTNRNUSNVY*)


The models, especially the AVN are indeed interesting. But this is on the far end of the forecast timewise. I said this yesterday for another system, but if it still looks this way tomorrow, then yes it is pretty likely. IMHO. If not... :)


hurricane activity (#8)
Posted by:
Rick Shade Location: Mobile, Al
Posted On 09:11PM 25-Jul-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNUW*)


I think the thing to monitor this year is the water temperatures. Here in Mobile, we have been breaking records with the heat. If a storm develops in the Gulf of Mexico...and lingers.....we could be in for a real ride. Camille did that. It stalled in the Gulf in the middle of August...hottest month of the year. So any freak weather anomaly would surprise everyone. I read too, that much like last year....the east cosst...particularly around South Carolina...is a prime area. Now though I am not a meteorological genius...I can't believe they can really read weather patterns and have any sense of prediction about where the storms might hit. To me.....its a crap shoot. No way of predicting that...no way......

Mike Anderson (#9)
Posted by: Bob Location: Sanford, FL
Posted On 10:10PM 25-Jul-2000 with id (RTNQVUNRRYNRV*)


Where is Mike Anderson? I would to see his prediction.

Predictions. (#10)
Posted by:
Mike C. [CFHC] (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA
Posted On 06:45AM 26-Jul-2000 with id (RTNRNUSNVY*)


This morning it looks like those systems won't form. Some of these models aren't too trustworthy with storm development on the far (read furthest into the future) predictions.

I'm still holding for no named storms in July.
- Mike C.

I don't know what's going on with Mike Anderson's page, BTW. Hopefully he'll let us know some way.



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