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CFHC Talkback For News Story #51: Newest Talkback: 01:55 PM 07-08 EDT

Upper Level Bahamas? Will it Persist?
09:51 AM EDT - 03 July 2001

There is a mostly upper level system near the Bahamas that has exploded this morning, and may want to take a dive and try to become a lower level system. Unlikely, still, (UL winds are rather high) but definitely worth watching during this holiday centered week. In either case it will bring rain and some wind to Florida later on this week. Development really depends on persistence again. If this keeps up (Especially overnight) then we may have something develop.

I'll be out of town the remainder of the week so access to the site will be spotty. If something develops we'll do our best.

My development potential scale for the wave approaching florida:

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
           [-------*--------------]

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #28 - #48 (of 48 total)

thank you (#28)
Posted by: Leo
Posted On 06:02PM 03-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNQYP*)

Thank you scott...i couldn't have said it better myself.

Oh Well.. (#29)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 07:08PM 03-Jul-2001 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNXQ*)

then I guess there's really no reason to post here anymore. Thanks for clearing that all up. :-)

Everyone likes excitment!!! (#30)
Posted by: Mark Location: Ft Myers Fla
Posted On 07:17PM 03-Jul-2001 with id (QRNWWNQSSNRQS*)

Its nice to have others who enjoy the discussions. No matter if were right or wrong we all like to learn from others. I'm not a professional but I have had many years experience working with others who have the knowledge. I never had the time for a degree but I enjoy learning from all.. I really enjoy all comments here and I have learned from many here on this site. Lets work together and we may help others with less experience and enjoy this site even more. THANKS

Good Going Guys (#31)
Posted by: StormHound Location: Orlando
Posted On 07:22PM 03-Jul-2001 with id (RTNTYNRRVNYU*)

Glad to see you *experts* are here to keep the confusion to a minimum. It must be really hard for you to read the NHC reports and then repeat them here on the boards. I'd really hate to see people actually have a discussion on a discussion board. I'll just show up here from time to time so Scott and Leo can tell me what the NHC just told me. Keep up the good work!

Perspectives (#32)
Posted by: Mike C (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Somewhere in Tennessee (Currently)
Posted On 10:28PM 03-Jul-2001 with id (VSNRUUNXXNRS*)

A reminder. I'm out of town so this is the first I've seen of the site since I wrote the article. Discussion is welcome, but namingcalling or finger pointing is not. I have very unreliable access to the site this week, so I cannot hope to monitor it much more. Please discuss the storms and not the people. If you have valid reasons why something is wrong explain that instead of finger pointing. Thanks.

Wet Fourth Expected In Florida (#33)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Cape Coral Florida
Posted On 11:31PM 03-Jul-2001 with id (QRNWWNQSSNQXW*)

South Florida looks wet over the next few days. Though its not welcome durring holidays we need it. In southwest Florida were short some 11" this year. Any rain is welcome but I hope everyone enjoys the fireworks. Have a great day.

Rain (#34)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 11:44PM 03-Jul-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNRPS*)

Yes it should bring in some welcome rains on the Fourth put we still have plenty of making up to do in the rainfall department. Put boy did we pick up some rain tonight in St.Pete, little over an inch. Have a good fourth injoy the fireworks. . .

GOM (#35)
Posted by: NICK Location: ORLANDO ,FL
Posted On 12:42AM 04-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPSNQUT*)

well lets see what happens in a day or so when it makes its way into the gulf/ the way the sat loops look the large circulation area looks like it might cross the keys / storms tonight are firing up around that circulation again and it seems to be directly over cuba heading into the gulf/ if nothing more than a rain maker its always fun to watch and post, anyway happy 4th to all

no one (#36)
Posted by: scottsvb Location: Tampa
Posted On 02:08AM 04-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPSNQUW*)

No one said you Stormhound or anyone, its just
a fact and anyone can post what they want. Also
anyone that does get a system right doesn't have
to look at the NHC,LOL. I like others in here
make my posts on my own thoughts, Im not perfect
like anyone else isn't also, I just try to give
my best forcast.

gulf conditions (#37)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 10:46AM 04-Jul-2001 with id (VSNRSRNYVNRPU*)

Is the environment in THe Gulf of Mexico favorable? Does anyone think the disturbance has a chance to develope once it gets out over the gulf?

My Apologies (#38)
Posted by: StormHound Location: Orlando
Posted On 03:00PM 04-Jul-2001 with id (RTNTYNRRVNYU*)

I'm sorry Mike if I enflamed the situation. I feel I must make a couple more points, then I will leave these boards entirely, if that is everone's wish. I do understand, Scott that you are entitled to your opinion. I, and others, appreciate your insights and thoughts on the storms in our area. However, you do not allow the same courtesy to others when they post their ideas. You have not yet learned how to disagree with others without insluting them. This site has just lost someone forever who added discussion and life to these threads. Agree or disagree with Colleen, she was always polite and loved to read others posts. I'm glad that she has found a place where her posts are not constantly criticized. Goodbye.

Ok, Enough is Enough! (#39)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 04:08PM 04-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNQYUNQWR*)

Ok..first things first. Happy 4th of July!! Hope everyone is enjoying a nice day off with friends or family and staying safe! To all of those people here who sent me encouraging messages, thank you from the bottom of my heart. I will be the first to admit when I'm wrong, and although the mix was there for something to form, it didn't happen. Oh well. Big deal. Learning is not a one-time experience, it's always occuring, day by day. If you asked me three years ago how to read a hurricane model, I would have told you to turn on the Weather Channel. It's a constant process. In order for us to learn, we need to keep posting our thoughts and comment, however off-base we may be. Then, we can learn from our mistakes and move on. I for one will keep posting here, I'm tougher than most people think (although my Irish temper will get the best of me sometimes *grins*) usually it slides off my back like water on a duck. So let's work together. I don't want to hear anymore about who was talking about who; it doesn't matter anymore. Ok, that's the end.

Now...I'm gonna go way out on a limb here and give my prediction for today's weather: I think it might rain.

*GRINS*

Colleen ;-)

Fourth Forecast (#40)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 04:28PM 04-Jul-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNQSW*)

Well I think that's my prdiction to Colleen as there's a 50/ 50 chance of rain in any one spot today. I'am hoping it will rain early so we can enjoy the fireworks tonight here at my house but you never no with Florida's thunderstorms. . .

I Was Correct (#41)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 05:59PM 04-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNQUU*)

It's raining. My 5-year old is probably wetting his pants right now as he is on the way to see "Cats & Dogs" and hates thunder and lightning. And I'll tell you right now, it sounds NASTY out there....BIG BIG BOOMERS.

Hope they go away before fireworks.

Colleen :-)

hey everyone (#42)
Posted by: garyc Location: jacksonville
Posted On 07:23PM 04-Jul-2001 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNRPR*)

I know i am new here, but i would like to say that i respect everyone's opinion. I would also like to just point out a few things. The NWS is right most of the time, but they have been known to be wrong at times and so are we. We are just all in this for the love of the chase. So can't we all just get along

Wicked Weather (#43)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 08:44PM 04-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPVNTT*)

Well...this time my forecast was 100% correct....we had a storm here the likes of which I haven't seen in a year or so...we got 3"+ of rain at my house in a 1/2 hour....and the worst of the weather was a little further to the NW section of the the county.

No fireworks tonight, (at least for us) as it is still lightning and thundering here.

Colleen :-)

Peace (#44)
Posted by: Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 08:49PM 04-Jul-2001 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNQVT*)

Stay with us StormHound - I enjoy your input. This gang always provides thought-provoking input and I learn from it - from ALL of you! A young man of 12 hits the nail on the head when he states "that one should look for subtle things". What a wonderful thing for information exchange this Internet is. Don't lose site of our common thread - the thirst for knowledge about this youngest of natural sciences called Meteorology. Looking forward to a great season of sharing information and ideas (and 'superb' forecasts and 'busted' ones)!
Cheers,
ED

?ok (#45)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER) Location: tampa
Posted On 10:10PM 05-Jul-2001 with id (QRNWWNQTQNQVQ*)

just a quick say, my post had nothing
todo with Colleen so dont involve someone
or anyone else. It wasnt directed at anyone
actually. That was terrible to say that and all
you said.

Anyways TS development is not expected
through Sat...Ps. I do like her posts by the
way and your posts are nothing bad at all so

NE of PR (#46)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 08:31AM 06-Jul-2001 with id (QURNQVSNQYTNQYR*)

Just watching the loops this morning, a little bit of flare-up of convection just to the NE of PR. Although the NHC says it will weaken and move NW as the ridge amplifies, it's still interesting to watch it anyway. Gotta do something in between quiet times, right? It prepares you for the "real thing". (I guess)..

Colleen :-)

thanks (#47)
Posted by: Keith Location: orlando
Posted On 09:13AM 06-Jul-2001 with id (QURNQVSNQYTNRQT*)

Well, this is my first post, I discovered the sight by accident two weeks ago. It's good to know that there are many other people out there like myself who enjoy tracking and anticipating storms,(and storms that never materialize). I am excited to have a forum like this to share my passion with everyone else, and I look forward to tracking and discussing systems with everyone. Now let's bring on the storms.

lightning ate my modem (#48)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 01:55PM 08-Jul-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNXU*)

a combination of my sister not turning off the computer in a bad thunderstorm on july 2 and a trip to the blue ridge have kept me away for a few days... looks like i missed another debate. the factions that post here (schools of thought people tend to follow) had another go at it, and then there are some posts by newbies asking what the hell all the acronyms and meteorological analyses mean.. and then a few more consolation posts for the affronted and reminders from the webmasters and veteran watchers to be cordial.. and its not even really the hot part of the season yet. i tell ya guys, its a lot more interesting than reading nhc advisories..
anyhow, nothing imminent or profoundly interesting to watch today, just the usual slow-burn activity of july. the area to watch into next week is off the eastern seaboard, though prospects look similar to those a week ago.

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