CFHC Talkback For News Story #51:
Newest Talkback: 05:55 PM 07-08 EDT

Upper Level Bahamas? Will it Persist?
09:51 AM EDT - 03 July 2001

There is a mostly upper level system near the Bahamas that has exploded this morning, and may want to take a dive and try to become a lower level system. Unlikely, still, (UL winds are rather high) but definitely worth watching during this holiday centered week. In either case it will bring rain and some wind to Florida later on this week. Development really depends on persistence again. If this keeps up (Especially overnight) then we may have something develop.

I'll be out of town the remainder of the week so access to the site will be spotty. If something develops we'll do our best.

My development potential scale for the wave approaching florida: 

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
           [-------*--------------]
Bad storm puns are comedy gold



NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #7 - #12 (of 48 total)
Bahamas (#7)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 11:16AM 03-Jul-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNWY*)

Well convection still going in the area. As far as it becoming a tropical system I think fairly slim but needs to be watched. Shear is around 5 to 10kts near the convection but increases to 20kts or so in western bahamas. Never the less this system will up are rain chances starting tomorrow especially southeast coast of florida then east coast.
models and allison (#8)
Posted by: alan Location: Orlando
Posted On 11:30AM 03-Jul-2001 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

So the NHC says none of the models show it developing. Question for anyone because I was on vacation when Allison popped. Did any of the models show Allison forming? If so, how far out did they show it?
Thanks
Alan
no circulation (#9)
Posted by: Leo
Posted On 11:33AM 03-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQVS*)

Calm down Colleen... NHC says no circulation...they are the best and official.
I'm Calm.... (#10)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 11:42AM 03-Jul-2001 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNTW*)

just realistic....nothing wrong with that. As far as NHC being the "formal" information site, you are correct. I don't disagree with that at all. However, I also remember a storm named "IRENE" that was suppossed to hit the west coast of Florida according to the "models" and actually it was the Miami area that got slammed...and they weren't prepared. It was very obvious on sat pix that it wasn't going the way the models and the NHC insisted it was, but they never issued any warnings for the Miami area, which resulted in a lot of people that were put in harm's way needlessly.
Yes, they may be the "official" source; that doesn't mean they're perfect, either. I'm certainly not; as a matter of fact, looking at the loops now, I see what they are saying.

Calm down??? (#11)
Posted by: alan Location: Orlando
Posted On 11:46AM 03-Jul-2001 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

Just a reminder, this is a board for us to discuss what we are looking at with systems. No one says the people on the board are the official source. In fact, we always say go with the offical source.
But you can't deny that the NHC isn't always correct either. They, in fact, are using what they see to make an educated guess on what is happening, albeit a better guess than us amatuers make on the board.
So far, there has been no one saying this low will destroy Florida or that's it's absolutely going to develop. All we have been saying is that we should be watching it because of the level of convection, the water temps and the lack of wind shear.
No one that I have seen needs to calm down.
Circulation (#12)
Posted by: StormHound (http://stormhound.homestead.com) Location: Orlando
Posted On 11:48AM 03-Jul-2001 with id (QRNSUNRRNQTP*)

I have to agree that at this point there doesn't seem to be much circulation and development doesn't seem all that likely. Conditions are somewhat favorable, however, so it is worth keeping an eye on.
great Job!! (#13)
Posted by: Joe Location: Port St. Lucie
Posted On 12:54PM 03-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPVNUR*)

I just wanted to say you all do a great job and have some great input you never get from "Official weather sources". I usually come here first and THEN go to the NHC. Keep up the good work!
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