CFHC Talkback For News Story #61:
Newest Talkback: 02:16 PM 07-29 EDT

July... No Named Storms
09:28 AM EDT - 27 July 2001

Barring no last minute surprises, looks like we'll go through July with out a named system. However, this benefit will be short lived.

SNONUT (from one of our hosted sites), is predicting early August activity from the Cape Verde. And judging by what I've seen lately, I have no reason to doubt it. (Which, of course, is when I'm out of town 3-15th (hemisphere even))) Add to that a pattern is setting up which may be less friendly for recurving of storms... So it's likely storms will stay further south this year. Which means the Southeast, including Florida could have some close calls this year.

For now, though. Nothing much worth watching, although the activity with the waves coming off Africa will get more and more interesting.

August could ramp up quickly, so be on the lookout.

BR>
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Other commentary at: Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center - Accuweather's Joe Bastardi - Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Services - SCOTTSVB's Hurricane Update Center - Jim Williams' Hurricane City - Gary Gray's Millennium Weather - Even More on our Links Page

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

Show All Comments | Show Next 21 Comments | Show Previous 27 Comments
Displaying Talkbacks #10 - #30 (of 51 total)
when? (#10)
Posted by: Nick
Posted On 10:17PM 27-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQXR*)

when and where did NHC say anything about a depression? enlighten me
where could it go? (#11)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 10:58PM 27-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNRSTNQTX*)

i've seen different ideas on where this system(possible td#3)might be headed.steve,you mentioned about it being around south florida,which i have also heard,but i have also heard about it coming through the caribbean,up into the gulf,and coming mine and your way around la and tx.anybody want to make any early predictions on where this thing might end up?
Wave(s) (#12)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 10:59PM 27-Jul-2001 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNTW*)

The wave is moving rapidly and circulation is sparking convection. I believe we will have a depression by Sunday night, and it should slow it's forward speed about then. Interestingly it may be TD # 4, as the wave in the eastern Atlantic appears well-organized now, a COULD be a depression by Sunday am. We'll see. The immediate concern is the wave nearing the Windwards. Where it will go is still the big question. My theory is that where there say storms will go 4-5 days before the event occurs is where it won't go, so tomorrow the models will give a different twist. How strong this system will become is also anyone's guess, but the eastern Caribbean islands will be spared, experiencing only a wind shift and thunderstorms. They will need to keep their attention further to the east by the end of next weekend. BTW, I think we'll have Barry before the end of the month. Although it's like stealing homeplate. Cheers!
Nick (#13)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 11:04PM 27-Jul-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNSW*)

Take a look at the atlantic discussion on TPC website click on tropical discussions. I agree totally and think chances are good that we may have a depression very soon. As it moves into more favorable conditions this weekend. If it would slow down in foward speed we could easily have as system and Hurricane by early next week. Keep your eyes on this one!!!

Chances 70%
anybody getting excited? (#14)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 11:10PM 27-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNRSTNQTX*)

keep the comments coming!i haven't seen this much action on this site since the system around florida a few days back.things are certainly heating up!
wave (#15)
Posted by: Nick
Posted On 11:15PM 27-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNQYUNQXQ*)

IMHO i really thing it has to have more convection to really start to get serious. not that i'm letting my guard down. we'll just have to wait and see.
which one? (#16)
Posted by: Keith Location: orlando
Posted On 11:18PM 27-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQWS*)

I go to work with nothing in the offing and I come home with two systems to watch. Which one does eveyone seem to think will emerge first?
Good Question (#17)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 11:55PM 27-Jul-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNSW*)

I dont know? But think something coming late this weekend and early next week in tropics.
Shawn (#18)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA
Posted On 11:57PM 27-Jul-2001 with id (VSNQTNQTYNRSU*)

If you look at the model link from the MRF that I have quoted on this thread (message #2), the low is near the Keys and the southern tip (FL City?). By day 9, it's off the TX coast. The runs for day 7/8 put the storm 150 miles offshore of the LA coast at 1009mb. That's not all that low of pressure, but if the system strengthens in the next day or two, look for the models to consider that and drop the pressures further. In any event, it's looking like at least a tropical storm, but like I said earlier, it's a potential Cat 1. I don't see it growing beyond that just yet.

TPS
which pix? (#19)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 12:13AM 28-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNRSTNQTX*)

does anyone know where i can find the best pix of this system?i haven't been able to find a site that has good pix east of the lesser ant.
TD #3. (#20)
Posted by: RB Location: Miami Fl
Posted On 12:34AM 28-Jul-2001 with id (VUNXPNSXNXV*)


Look this MRF.

http://152.80.49.210/PUBLIC/
Bookmark these... (#21)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA
Posted On 12:35AM 28-Jul-2001 with id (VSNQTNQTYNRSU*)

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/latest.pl?sat+carib+ir

That's the Navy's link. It doesn't go all the way to Africa, but it's good for Central Atlantic pics. They have a visible available during the daytime.


http://www.wunderground.com/satellite/g5/ir.html

That's a good Eastern Atlantic shot. They also have visible in the daytime.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

Of course NHC's IR view out to 20 degrees. And try this one for Africa

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europe/images/xxirmet7.GIF

The latest shot was a bad image, but that is a good infared to see what's going to be coming into the pipeline.

Sorry if some of the links are too embeded in their sites to give access, but I hope they all work.

L8R

Steve
TD#3. ? (#22)
Posted by: RB Location: Miami Fl
Posted On 12:42AM 28-Jul-2001 with id (VUNXPNSXNXV*)


Ok this is the complete link for the MRF.

http://152.80.49.210/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_PUBLIC_area.cgi?dtg=2001072700&area=mrf_atlantic
candidates (#23)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 01:53AM 28-Jul-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNQQU*)

when the global models start tracking waves like they are, it usually heralds a storm or two. wave around 45w is just lacking convection, and the one around 30w just needs a day to get organized. atlantic ridge is very dominant, and the east coast trough is shallow.. it's the sort of scenario where a tropical system could be a real threat to somebody. thats only if something actually starts winding up. 70-30 we get something before the month is out.
jet stream (#24)
Posted by: mark Location: sebring, fl.
Posted On 03:47AM 28-Jul-2001 with id (VTNTUNRRPNUU*)

saw jet stream for next week, its all the way up to newfoundland. ridge is that strong. wave off africa is well organized. this could be a big one down the road.
wake up!! (#25)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 08:59AM 28-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNRSVNY*)

wake up,everyone!this could be a very interesting day.not much happening right at the moment,but the wave is getting ever so close to the islands.once it passes the islands is when we really need to start watching for it.hope to see alot of comments today.
wave (#26)
Posted by: Nick
Posted On 09:38AM 28-Jul-2001 with id (QURNQVSNQYTNQWY*)

right now i'm still not sold on this thing...i still see no convection
Moving models (#27)
Posted by: StormHound (http://stormhound.homestead.com) Location: Orlando/FL
Posted On 09:48AM 28-Jul-2001 with id (RTNTYNRRVNYY*)

There was a site last year, I believe it was an NOAA site, that had the various models in motion over the 7 day period. This was very cool and a much easier way to read the models. Unfortunately, they have shut down this year. Does anybody else know of a similiar site?
convection (#28)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 10:26AM 28-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNRSWNQQT*)

anyone have an opinion on when the convection may pick up.i thought the nhc said it would be passing the islands this morning?it looks like it won't be until some time this afternoon or tonight.could it be slowing down?
WATCH (#29)
Posted by: NICK Location: ORLANDO FL
Posted On 10:31AM 28-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQXW*)

Watch and see , it will happen/ gut feeling sometimes about these storms/ but im not always right
RB, (#30)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA
Posted On 10:35AM 28-Jul-2001 with id (VSNQTNQTYNRP*)

I tried to post this last night, but the server had an internal error. But my "paste" was still loaded this morning. Btw, we're getting rain moving in from that wave over FL yesterday. That's 3 in a row - Allison, "No name" and this one.

The 144 hr really puts an intense low south of the Cape Verdes. You'll see that shade of purple that far east from storms that look like they've already formed before they're off the coast. Time will tell, but seeing the genesis or potential for a major storm makes you think. The considerations are so much different between a TS or Cat 1 or 2 than for a 3, 4, or 5. In my teen and adult life, Gilbert has been the one storm that really scared me because of its size and ferocity. He's the monster. He'll show you some of that purple color.

Steve
Still little convection (#31)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 11:37AM 28-Jul-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNUY*)

Yesterday I thought when I woke up I would see much more convection today. Not happening. I'am more concerned with the wave which is far north 15 degrees near the africa coast. Well have to wait and see I guess but feel less confðÿÿÿ
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