CFHC Talkback For News Story #66:
Newest Talkback: 07:10 AM 08-22 EDT

Warnings For Near-Hurricane Debby
10:45 AM EDT - 21 August 2000

11PM Update:

Debby remains a Tropical Storm for the 11PM advisory, but with pressures dropping and an eye trying to form, it should be a hurricane by 5AM (if not sooner). Forecast track beyond that remains mostly the same.

5PM Update:

Hurricane Warnings are now up for Puerto Rico. Thinking on the system remains relatively unchanged from earlier.

Original Update:

Hurricane Warnings are up for the islands between from the south Guadeloupe up and to the north and west to the Us Virgin Islands. Hurricane Watches remain for Puerto Rico. Tropical Storm Warnings are up for Barbados.

Debby's windspeed is now at 60 KT (70MPH) which is just under hurricane strength. And is stregthening...

Not much else to add from the previous article, except to note that the official track now takes it over Hispaniola (still subject to change)

John and I both plan to be on our
Live Chat at 8PM Eastern (01:00 GMT) for at least one hour tonight. Even though we aren't there always, feel free to use it anytime. At this same time Jim Williams will be doing a live audio broadcast over at Hurricane City we will be listening as well.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline. has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean. Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens. Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Live Radio (RealAudio) from Antigua
Nice Satellite Image of Atlantic (IR Colorized)

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

- [mac]

Show All Comments | Show Previous 39 Comments

Displaying Talkbacks #37 - #57 (of 57 total)

Mike's Discussion Site Down (#37)
Posted by: Phil Location: Melbourne,FL
Posted On 06:45PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (QRNWWNRTSNVS*)

It's not your computer. I can't get into the discussion forum on Mike's site either. The server must be down.

Bad timing (#38)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 06:48PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNQSQNTX*)

well that sucks

Mike's Server Has been Problems All Day (#39)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 07:08PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNRT*)

I emailed him earlier and told him about it...I am sure he is on the problem as we speak.


To Alan, Richard, Robert Etc. (#40)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 07:14PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNRT*)

Just talked to Mike and he is working on the problem....just wanted to let everyone know.

Mike server... (#41)
Posted by:
Richard Byett ( Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 07:19PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNTQNWT*)

I can access chat, but not the msg board on mike site

Debby (#42)
Posted by:
Dean Dysart Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 08:29PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (VSNSPNRPUNRQV*)

It's been 8 yrs. since we've had a major hurricane (andrew). I think we're due for another one. Lets hope it's nothing more than a cat.1......Hope Debby doesn't turn into a bitch.

Debby (#43)
Posted by:
Dean Dysart Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 08:30PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (VSNSPNRPUNRQV*)

It's been 8 yrs. since we've had a major hurricane (andrew). I think we're due for another one. Lets hope it's nothing more than a cat.1......Hope Debby doesn't turn into a bitch.

Looking like a hurricane (#44)
Posted by: JoeP Location: O-Town/FL
Posted On 09:59PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNRTTNQTVNQT*)

It sure looks to me like the last few IR sat pics are showing a definite strengthening and much better organization. I would expect Debby to be a hurricane by the 11PM or at least the 5AM advisory. If nothing else, there should be a much better center defined for the forecast models.

I Agree Joe... (#45)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 10:19PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQUX*)

I am sorry but I thought the LLCC was now embedded in the CDO for sure..sure looks a lot better than it did before...guess we will find out at 11!!!

I cant get in mike andersons chat grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr (#46)
Posted by: robert
Posted On 10:59PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPWNSVNRQRNQXX*)

what the hell is wrong with computer their so f*ing anoying you dc for one second your screwed out of a chat rooom grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
what do i do i have a duplicet of my self sitting there with my IP adress and im going insane it wont get booted or anything

Chat (#47)
Posted by: JoeP Location: O-Town/FL
Posted On 11:12PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNRTTNQTVNQT*)

You should have joined the chat from this site. It didn't include Mike Anderson, but still very good. Several people with opinions.

Debby (#48)
Posted by: Joe
Posted On 11:18PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNSNQXRNYQ*)

Still not a Hurricane but I think it will become
one my Tomorrow Morning for sure.The pressure has
dropped 6mb.It may be trying to form an eye wall.
Florida landfall by Friday

Gulf (#49)
Posted by: jimmy
Posted On 11:24PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNWWNQUWNR*)

check out (track two). this seems to indicate a very good possibility that the path could go through the straits and into the gulf. Any comments?

Debby (#50)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:48PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNST*)

Actually, Debby's pressure dropped 10mbs in 3 hours and their our signs that an eyewall is trying to form...I think this was somewhat of a shock. I say batten down the hatces, Florida..Debby's on her way.

Not good for land in Debby's way (#51)
Posted by: Brian Location: Hollywood, Florida
Posted On 01:00AM 22-Aug-2000 with id (QSWNURNRPPNYX*)

After watching a good Dolphins performance, I have reviewed the data and have taken the liberty to provide my projection. To begin, Puerto Rico is going to take a serious direct hit from this system. There appears to be no mistaking that at this point. All models are in agreement. However, the long range outlook is becoming rather complicated. It appears the models are all beginning to move the system a bit farther to the south than earlier anticapated. But at the same time, the models are split as to the projected impact the trough moving down from the Midwest into the Northeast will have on Debby. Therefore, one may either refrain from guessing, or take a stab at the outcome. I'll take my chances and make a guess, based upon the CURRENT IFORMATION. I believe that if this were an average or normal summer, the system would pass to the south of Miami and go directly into the keys entering into the Gulf. However, this year has been abnormally cold in the Northeast, as a result of unusually strong troughs sweeping through areas of the East, including as far south as Southern Georgia. Therefore, I anticipate this unseasonable strong trough to lift Debbie once it reaches about a quarter of the way up Cuba's northeastern coast, and then become influenced by the trough, pulling her north into even more favorable conditions, causing her to gain intensity, and cross somewhere between Islamorada and West Palm Beach. From there, I am completely unsure. THE ABOVE IS JUST A GUESS WITH THE CURRENT INFO.

Projections (#52)
Posted by:
Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 01:07AM 22-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNSS*)

Well if you never make a forecast you can never take credit for being wrong, so here goes (keep in mind that forecasters reserve the right to amend their forecast :)): Landfall between Miami and Fort Lauderdale at 2pm (18Z) Friday - intensity at landfall 90kts. Passing over Lake Oke during the late afternoon and just west of Melbourne (as a minimal hurricane) around 2am (06Z) Saturday morning. Exiting back into the Atlantic near Daytona Beach at 8am (12Z) Saturday morning. Okay, I've stuck my neck out - now tear it apart!

Compliments to the Orlando Dude on some good comments in his earlier post. Colleen is correct - its time for Florida to get ready.

BRAVO (#53)
Posted by:
Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 01:10AM 22-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNSS*)

Hey Brian at least you took a crack at it - good show!

upgrade (#54)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 01:58AM 22-Aug-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

well friends and neighbors, the inevitable. by the way, see that northwesterly jog debby's taken. might help the storm clear more of the larger islands ahead and maintain a bit more strength than indicated in the official forecast.. guess we'll see if that verifies by noon tomorrow.

Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 05:30AM 22-Aug-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSRNQQU*)

Hello All,
Well Debby turned into a hurricane durring the night and is moving a bit more north than yesterday. This motion should continue today and most likely tommorow as well. It put Debby just north of the Dominican Republic and southeast Cuba in 48 hours and just north of central Cuba in 72 hours. Models are changing this morning with the GFDN & GFDL now taking Debby westward just under Florida and off the coast of southwest Florida late Friday. The forcasted strength at that time is around 100mph winds(Cat#2).. South Florida is now becomming a concern and people from the Florida Keys and up the east coast to West Palm Beach and up the west coast to Ft Myers need to keep close eye on Debby and its path. There are some models that bring Debby up to a Cat#3 storm as it approaches Florida so its time. Tropical Storm Watches were changed to Hurricane Watches in the southern Bahamas and I expect hurricane watches to be extended up the east coast of Cuba and into the central Bahamas at 11am or 2pm advisory and some parts of south Florida by early Wednesday. The next 24 hours should get interesting if Debby continues on her present track!!!I know its still a bit away to really know but right now its my best guess.

Debby, and Florida (#56)
Posted by:
Richard Byett ( Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 06:39AM 22-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSTNSQ*)

Well like most of you, i think it is looking increasingly likely that Debby will impact southern Florida later this week. I expect her to be a strong CAT 2 storm, if not a CAT 3. As for her track before then, i anticipate a course that takes the centre over PR, then over the northern Dominican Republic, possibly over the northern parts of Haiti, then just off shore of Cuba before heading towards the Keys or floridas mainland south of West Palm Beach. Again this is just a guess but that is what we are here for :)

Is that an eye? (#57)
Posted by:
Richard Byett ( Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 07:10AM 22-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSTNSQ*)

Well i have just viewed the first available visible sat imagery, and it looks to me like an eye is trying to form. The apparent eye is located just to the southwest of Barbuda, midway between that island and the islands of St.Kitts and Nevis. Obviously the image is the first visible, so the whole storm is not completely illuminated. However the apparent eye would be close to where NHC say the centre of the storm should be. IR imagery would seem to indicate that if this is an eye it is located to the south of the bulk of the convection. However there is convection completely wrapped around this apparrent eye. It looks as if it mmay pass directly over St Kitts, as well as Saba and St. Eustatius. It will be interesting to see what will happen with the storms intensity and organisation if this is indeed an eye!
well we will have to wait for more info and more images to see if i am right or not!

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