CFHC Talkback For News Story #66:
Newest Talkback: 11:10 AM 08-22 EDT

Warnings For Near-Hurricane Debby
10:45 AM EDT - 21 August 2000

11PM Update:

Debby remains a Tropical Storm for the 11PM advisory, but with pressures dropping and an eye trying to form, it should be a hurricane by 5AM (if not sooner). Forecast track beyond that remains mostly the same.

5PM Update:

Hurricane Warnings are now up for Puerto Rico. Thinking on the system remains relatively unchanged from earlier.

Original Update:

Hurricane Warnings are up for the islands between from the south Guadeloupe up and to the north and west to the Us Virgin Islands. Hurricane Watches remain for Puerto Rico. Tropical Storm Warnings are up for Barbados.

Debby's windspeed is now at 60 KT (70MPH) which is just under hurricane strength. And is stregthening...

Not much else to add from the previous article, except to note that the official track now takes it over Hispaniola (still subject to change)

John and I both plan to be on our
Live Chat at 8PM Eastern (01:00 GMT) for at least one hour tonight. Even though we aren't there always, feel free to use it anytime. At this same time Jim Williams will be doing a live audio broadcast over at Hurricane City we will be listening as well.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Live Radio (RealAudio) from Antigua
Nice Satellite Image of Atlantic (IR Colorized)

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]


Show All Comments | Show Next 21 Comments | Show Previous 33 Comments

Displaying Talkbacks #16 - #36 (of 57 total)

Debby (movement more Northernly) (#16)
Posted by:
David Location: Brevard/PSJ
Posted On 02:50PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)


Hello all,

I am not a pro at this, but just incase the Cape's weather machine fails, I like to watch approaching storms carefully. I have been watching this loop: http://sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov/data4/images/TROPICAL/atl/catl-wv-loop.html
It is a look at the water vapor, and how it is interacting. Looking at the trough of dry air and how the moisture seems to be moving it looks like Debby is going to be moving more North/West North than West. My guess is that it is not going to run into the Central East Coast of Florida. My guess is the Carolina's. Will see....

Extended Outlook from NWS (#17)
Posted by:
OrlandoDude Location: O-Town
Posted On 02:58PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPYNRQYNRPYNVX*)


THE TRACK OF T.S. DEBBY BY NEXT WEEKEND IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW EXTENSION OF THE AVN IS EVEN FARTHER W THAN
LAST NIGHT MRF IN TRACKING THE T.S. TO THE CENTRAL FL COAST BY DAY 5. IT
APPEARS NOW THAT THE SRN END OF THE MEAN UPPER TROF ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND FAR ENOUGH S TO BEGIN TO PULL THE STORM
NWD OR NEWD THEREAFTER INTO THE S ATLANTIC STATES. FORECASTPOSITION
ERRORS MAY BE LARGE...PLEASE STAY CURRENT WITH BULLETINS FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
EVEN BEFORE THE TS (OR HURRICANE BY THEN) DEBBY MAKES LANDFALL
SOMEWHERE IN FL...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF/FRONT MAY EXTEND UP THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL PLAIN FROM GA TO SERN VA WHICH MAY HELP TO FOCUS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS DAYS 4-5.

Debby (#18)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg,FL
Posted On 03:42PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (VTNRTTNQNSV*)


This is one that could be a threat to Florida
by Friday and into the Weekend.But it is to early
to stay if its going to effect Florida or not.Will
just have to wait and see.

Joe

IWIN/NWS DISCUSSIONS (#19)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:09PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNSQ*)


Almost every single discussion this afternoon has Debby on our doorstep by Fri/Sat, but they are holding back on going into too much detail because of the proximity of the storm. Words I read were "dicey" "visitor on our doorstep"...etc. Not sounding good. just a heads up. TWC has also been saying this for most of the day.

Debby stacking up? (#20)
Posted by:
Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 04:11PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSRNQSU*)


Well earlier today it was evident that the LLCC was to the southwest of most of the convection on visible imagery. However it seems to me that over the passed few hours the LLCC may be moving back into the area of convection. Does this mean that the Low and midlevel lows are now beginning to stack? If so then the storm could become stronger as convection will be able to concentrate around the centre on all 4 quadrants, rather than primarily to the north and east.
Any way just an observation i have made. What does any one else think?


Models (#21)
Posted by: JoeP Location: O-Town
Posted On 04:17PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (QRNSUNQWNR*)


Can anyone point me to a site that has the BAMM and BAMD models? Thanks

Models (#22)
Posted by: JoeP Location: O-Town
Posted On 04:17PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (QRNSUNQWNR*)


Can anyone point me to a site that has the BAMM and BAMD models? Thanks

Richard Comment (#23)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:22PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNSQ*)


Richard...as I noted to you earlier, I thought this was beginning to happen...we shall see with the next update, I believe.

bill,,colleen and ed (#24)
Posted by: scottsvb (
http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 04:28PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQQNQVUNQSP*)


First off,,great post ed,,everyone should read what he said,,,,for us meteorolgists,,(which i do have a degree in) he nailed it very close to the button.
Bill not to yell back at you like you did me,,but the pressure has come back up some,,,the pressure is around 1003-1005 flucuating the NHC says do to the rapid movement.Satillite from Goes gave an estimate around 1003 earlier,,but the system was better organized at the time,,but as it icreased in fwd speed from 17mph to 22mph,,it began to spread out more from the CDO and the prssure came up just a tad to 1007,,now as of this post back to 1004mb as the ridge is relaxing a tad.The movement should slow down some due to this and a just n of w motion should continue for the next few days,,with some wobbles.
Colleen its always good to hear from you,,,the 88kt winds are 1000 feet up and doesn't translate down to the surface...with a pressure of 1004mb at this post,,it has a wind enviroment at the surface of 45-50mph Note our and the NHC reports the south side of Debby with winds only around 40mph at this time. keep up the good work colleen.
But everyone Debby will become a hurricane soon and florida residents need to keep an eye on this,,,thursday night it should be within 100 miles of the Keys or Miami....some changes in the track will be issues due to the uncertainty of the trough coming down on Friday.

Latest Recon Flight (#25)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:30PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNSQ*)


Doesn't tell me much, but maybe you weather watchers can figure this out:

000
URNT12 KNHC 211930
.
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/1707Z
B. 15 DEG 55 MIN N
. 58 DEG 19 MIN W
C. NA
D. 20 KTS
E. 138 DEG 46 NM
F. 184 DEG 34 KT
G. 137 DEG 64 NM
H. EXTRAP 1004 MB
I. 24 C/ 390 M
J. 24 C/ 450 M
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 /01
O. 0.5/1 NM
P. AF963 0207A DEBBY OB 15
. MAX FL WIND 79 KT N QUAD 1528Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
.

Extrapolated pressure at the last one was 1006mb...this time it is 1004..is that anything significant? Thanks for the help!!!

richard (#26)
Posted by: scottsvb (
http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 04:35PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQQNQVUNQSP*)


The center that you said is becoming better organinzed and will so better tonight..the pressure is down to 1004 from 1007,,the lower the pressure the more thunderstorms,,,this is what is making the system look better organinzed.
good call there richard

To Scott (#27)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:37PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNSQ*)


Scott, except for the kind words, can you explain something to me?
Colleen its always good to hear from you,,,the 88kt winds are 1000 feet up and doesn't translate down to the surface...with a pressure of 1004mb at this post,,it has a wind enviroment at the surface of 45-50mph Note our and the NHC reports the south side of Debby with winds only around 40mph at this time. keep up the good work colleen.

If the winds at the surface are only 45-50mph, then why is the NHC reporting it as a 70mph storm

Chat tonight starting 8pm Eastern (#28)
Posted by:
John C. (http://www.flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 05:08PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNSR*)


There is a scheduled chat tonight for all those who want to join in. 8pm EST (01:00 GMT) just click on the "live Chat" link on the left menu bar. Hope to see you all there.

Colleen (#29)
Posted by: scottsvb (
http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 05:13PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQQNQVUNQSP*)


NHC has there own reasons for such,,but the reasoning is that there is projected winds on the north and east side of debbie near 70mph,,so that is the post. The south and sw side has winds near 50mph or so,,,,the NHC or NWS would give the higher speed cause its sustained at some point around the center.

Thanks, Scott (#30)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 05:23PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNRY*)


Thanks for explaining that to me....see ya later on!!!!

ED Comment #6 (#31)
Posted by:
John C. (http://www.flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 05:25PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNSR*)


Ed you hit it on the head in your #6 comment on this news story, the 5pm discussion is now saying what you said about the low level circulation out running the convection. Good call!

Getting better organised? (#32)
Posted by:
Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 05:38PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSWNX*)


Well it appears to me that the LLCC and midlevel low may now be starting to stack vertically. Like NHC said, the problem is that the LLCC keeps racing ahead of the midlevel low. However over the passed 2-3 hours the convection seems to be getting better organised around the west and south of the LLCC. If this is the case then there is more chance the system will intensify at a faster rate... i notice nhc take her above hurricane strength (forecast 70knots, a hurricane is 65) within 12 hours. Could be that they think the system will stack up too.
Either way it will be a close call for the islands, especially as she is getting better organised too.
Just thought i would point that observation out, and of course i could be wrong.
By the way if anyone would like me to link to their website, or would like to link to mine just drop me a mail. Thanx, and i will post back again soon :)


Scenario (#33)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 05:40PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYUNRPW*)


If Debby "rides" the Antilles for any length of time, it seems certain that intensification will be limited, if outright weakening doesn't occur.

Richard (#34)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 06:08PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQVV*)


I just saw the latest IR loop on TWC, and I do believe that the center is trying to get back under the CDO...slowly, but surely.

debby's still lopsided (#35)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 06:22PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)


last couple of hours there's been another convective burst at the center. this has been going on all day, but the circulation center has been on the western periphery of the CDO for even longer. it may burst again and again, but until the center becomes more embedded in the CDO i dont think debby will do much to get stronger. i reckon the folks in monserrat and st kitts are a bit less nervous for debby's continued mad rush ahead of the main convective mass. i know it's of marginal importance, but has anybody been watching the little puff (looking for the worse at the moment) that was chris? its still there around 25N70W. when this little feature starts interacting with the trough ahead, it might stir back up. i give it a snowball's chance in hell, anyway.
yada yada, everybody take it easy. especially you folks from key largo up to west palm. youll be the first to hear from debby, stateside anyway.

HELP anyone collen ,richard ,steve,alan (#36)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 06:42PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNQSQNTX*)


Is anyone having trouble getting on the posts on mike site if so please tell me soi can see if its my comp or its the server down

Mike's Discussion Site Down (#37)
Posted by: Phil Location: Melbourne,FL
Posted On 06:45PM 21-Aug-2000 with id (QRNWWNRTSNVS*)


It's not your computer. I can't get into the discussion forum on Mike's site either. The server must be down.


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