CFHC Talkback For News Story #81:
Newest Talkback: 08:57 PM 09-05 EDT

Ernesto and Shear
09:50 AM EDT - 03 September 2000

What originally made me go with the prediction of no named storms this weekend was the fact that shear was still pretty bad in the area that Ernesto was trying to form. It managed to anyway, but since then has been barely holding on. It's a definite fish spinner system as it heads toward that direction.

More interesting to me is the system in the Central East Atlantic that could form sometime this week. We'll wait and see.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)


Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #11 - #15 (of 26 total)
flash in the pan (#11)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 08:44PM 04-Sep-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

hmm.. seems ernesto came and went while i was on a labor day trip. looks like i didnt miss much. havent we already seen that play this year? deja vu, chris. well, chris had its debby, maybe ernesto will have its florence. the trailing wave/low looks pretty ripe, if it will ever get organized. with that surface trough lingering in the gulf and the new front settling in, there might be one of those close-in gulf storms this week, also. money is on the wave 2-3 days out from the islands, though. that should be our florence, whenever it decides that the freebie upper high outflow and persistent convection merit a defined surface low. by the way, jj, you know your stuff with the history. always have a less than flashy outlook on development, always seem to go with the less hyped forecast. hey, it's working this year so far. when was the last time we made it to september without a u.s. tropical cyclone landfall? 1990? its been a while. this season is just goofy and weird.
Central Atlantic (#12)
Posted by: Mitch McCauslin (http://home.cfl.rr.com/h2ocean/weather.html) Location: Cape Canaveral, FL
Posted On 11:32PM 04-Sep-2000 with id (RTNYUNRSTNQRS*)

I am somewhat surprised that the TPC did not classify the central atlantic system as a TD at 11:00 pm. This system has shown a ball of convection near the center of circulation all day today. In fact, as the day has progressed, it appears that this system has become better organized. As of now, the outflow is covering a very large area on all sides. I think this will be Florence in the days to come.
Central Atlantic (#13)
Posted by: Mitch McCauslin (http://home.cfl.rr.com/h2ocean/weather.html) Location: Cape Canaveral, FL
Posted On 11:43PM 04-Sep-2000 with id (RTNYUNRSTNQRS*)

I am somewhat surprised that the TPC did not classify the central atlantic system as a TD at 11:00 pm. This system has shown a ball of convection near the center of circulation all day today. In fact, as the day has progressed, it appears that this system has become better organized. As of now, the outflow is covering a very large area on all sides. I think this will be Florence in the days to come.
Central Atlantic System (#14)
Posted by: StormHound Location: O-Town
Posted On 12:13AM 05-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRPYNQRWNQRP*)

Mitch, I'm with you all the way. The last few hours in particular, this system seems to have sucked in the rather large disturbance area into a much more concentrated area. This trend seems to be continuing even into the night. We'll have to see how she looks in the morning.
Spinup off of Carolinas (#15)
Posted by: randy
Posted On 08:12AM 05-Sep-2000 with id (QRNSXNRSRNXS*)

WV shows a nice spin to the area off to the SE of the carolinas. Any comments or observations?
Location (#16)
Posted by: randy
Posted On 08:14AM 05-Sep-2000 with id (QRNSXNRSRNXS*)

That area off the SE of the Carolinas is about 28/73
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