Gustav has weakened since it has slowly crossed Haiti, and the land interaction along with moderate wind shear should keep it a tropical storm for a good part of today, however, the storm is moving generally northwestward. It still seems westward enough to keep it south of Cuba for most of the time in the shorter term track.

A Hurricane Warning remains for the eastern Cuban provinces, and a Hurricane Watch for the remainder of Cuba as well as the Caymans. Tropical Storm Warnings and a Hurricane Watch are up for Jamaica as well.

As Gustav moves westward south of Cuba, it will encounter very favorable water temperatures, so it has a chance to strengthen into a hurricane again, and possibly a strong hurricane. It may move a bit further westward and go through the Yucatan channel or clip the very western edge of Cuba, after this begins much more speculation. How much it strengthens while in the Caribbean depends on how much land interaction it has with Cuba (if it stays roughtly 50-60 miles or more off the coast, then it will likely strengthen more).



There remains the potential is there for Gustav to become a major hurricane when and if it gets into the Gulf of Mexico.

The track beyond that is controlled by a low pressure trough around the Midwest, which could force the storm east or west of the current NHC forecast track. The more likely scenario of the two (right now) is the western one. This is forecast lounge territory though at this point. I suspect Gulf forecasts won't be all that reliable until Saturday.

Things could change, especially if Gustav moves more slowly than expected. so much of the Gulf will need to keep an eye on Gustav.

The wave known as 95L is also still worth tracking over the next few days, as it may get close to the US before turning more north.

Flhurricane Long Term Recording of Cuban radar mosaic
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

Gustav Event Related Links

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Gustav
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Gustav (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Gustav (Animated!)
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Gustav -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop)

Caribbean Islands Weather Reports

Wave 95L Event Related Links

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 95L
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 95L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 95L (Animated!)
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 95L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop)
2:00AM Update

Fay is producing torrential rains across the Florida Big Bend and SW Georgia right now with rainfall rates averaging 1.5"/hr across the region. Rainfall rates to 4-6"/hr have been reported with the heaviest band currently extending from Thomasville, GA to Monticello, FL to Dekle Beach, FL and this will shift westward as Fay slides westward. Daily rainfall records will be broken today across this region, with 10.13" being the 24 hr rainfall record in Tallahassee to date. In some areas monthly record rainfall totals may be approached with storm total accumulations of 15" likely being the norm rather than the exception.

For Tallahassee and points west, the worst is yet to come. The airmass over the Gulf is unstable and very, very moist, resulting in the development and maintenance of intense, highly efficient rain-producing storms. With the Gulf of Mexico wide open to the south and southeast of Fay, this isn't likely to change anytime soon. Three-hourly accumulations near 10" have been observed in some spots and it is quite possible that similar totals are found in Tallahassee and nearby locales starting in just a few hours. An isolated tornado threat exists with these storms as well, although the potential may be a bit higher further to the north.

For those in my part of the world, I urge you to stay inside and do not venture out onto the roads. Many roads have been closed due to downed trees and many others will be closing due to flooding and further downed trees as the day progresses today. If you are out on the roads and come to *any* body of standing or moving water, turn around-don't drown. It only takes a small amount of water to move a car. Already many people have lost their lives in Florida due to this storm -- don't let rushing water or falling trees impact you as well. For those of you to the west, be prepared and do not let this catch you off-guard!