|
Show Tropical Discussion Selection: |
| #32420 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:11 PM 12.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005 EMILY HAS BEEN MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED TO BE 265/17. THIS MOTION IS TAKING EMILY ON A TRACK TO THE SOUTH...OR LEFT...OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THEREFORE...A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN APPLIED TO THE ENTIRE OFFICIAL FORECAST. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD...AND THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS AGREE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE NOGAPS IS THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER...AND GIVEN ITS GOOD PERFORMANCE THUS FAR THIS YEAR...AND THE CURRENT MOTION TRENDS...IT COULD TURN OUT TO BE CORRECT. HOWEVER...I WILL FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL TRACKS...AFTER ADJUSTMENT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAD BEEN LACKING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS RESUMED...WITH THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATED BENEATH THE EASTERN EDGE. 00Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND SINCE THEN THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS INCREASED. GIVEN THE TREND OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BRINGING EMILY TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 24 HOURS AND MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY 72 HOURS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. DUE TO THE SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE TRACK FORECAST...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0300Z 10.7N 54.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 13/1200Z 11.1N 57.2W 55 KT 24HR VT 14/0000Z 11.8N 60.3W 65 KT 36HR VT 14/1200Z 12.7N 63.6W 75 KT 48HR VT 15/0000Z 13.7N 66.9W 85 KT 72HR VT 16/0000Z 15.5N 73.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 17/0000Z 17.5N 79.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 18/0000Z 19.5N 85.5W 100 KT |
| #32340 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:31 PM 12.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005 ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED THIS AFTERNOON... EMILY IS MAINTAINING DECENT BANDING AND GOOD SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA. GIVEN THIS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE CYCLONE TOMORROW MORNING AT 12Z. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/17...AND ONCE AGAIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE HAS EDGED SOUTHWARD. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAINTAINED NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...KEEPING IT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK MODELS REMAIN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND THE GFS AND NOGAPS ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. AS NOTED ABOVE...THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS STRONG...THE SHEAR IS LOW...AND THE WATER IS WARM. SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO MAKE A MAJOR HURRICANE OUT OF EMILY AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE STRENGTHENING TREND WILL LIKELY RESUME WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DIURNAL MAXIMUM. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE PREDICTOR IN THE LATEST SHIPS STATISTICAL MODEL RUN IS CLIMATOLOGY. SO FAR...THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON SEEMS TO HAVE LITTLE INTEREST IN CLIMATOLOGY. WHILE WE OFTEN TALK ABOUT THE COLD WAKE THAT HURRICANES LEAVE BEHIND...IT APPEARS THAT HURRICANE DENNIS HAS ACTUALLY MADE PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WARMER...AND HENCE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF EMILY. HEAT CONTENT ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI INDICATE THAT WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF DENNIS HAVE SPREAD WARM WATERS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA...AN AREA THAT COULD BE TRAVERSED BY EMILY IN THREE DAYS OR SO. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 11.1N 52.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 11.5N 55.4W 55 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 12.1N 58.6W 65 KT 36HR VT 14/0600Z 13.0N 61.6W 75 KT 48HR VT 14/1800Z 14.0N 64.8W 85 KT 72HR VT 15/1800Z 16.0N 71.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 16/1800Z 18.0N 77.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 17/1800Z 20.0N 83.0W 100 KT |
| #32294 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:01 AM 12.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005 EMILY IS SHOWING IMPROVED BANDING THIS MORNING...AND A MICROWAVE PASS AT 0920Z DOES MUCH TO IMPROVE CONFIDENCE IN A WELL-DEFINED CENTER LOCATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON A T3.0 DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM SAB. OUTFLOW IS STRONG BOTH TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION IS CONSOLIDATING...A MORE RAPID STRENGTHENING TREND IS LIKELY...WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BEING THE ONLY OBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTOR. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS ARE FORECASTING EMILY TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THREE DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THIS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/18...CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN BEFORE. MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS HAD SOMETHING OF A RIGHT BIAS SO FAR WITH THIS SYSTEM...HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT AND BE REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD KEEP EMILY ON A BASIC WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE INITIAL LOCATION OF THE CENTER...MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...EVEN MORE SO THAN YESTERDAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED ABOUT 100 NMI SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 11.0N 51.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 11.4N 53.8W 50 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 11.9N 57.0W 60 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 12.8N 60.2W 75 KT 48HR VT 14/1200Z 14.0N 63.5W 85 KT 72HR VT 15/1200Z 16.0N 69.5W 100 KT 96HR VT 16/1200Z 18.0N 75.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 17/1200Z 20.0N 80.0W 100 KT |
| #32251 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 AM 12.Jul.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005 THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE STORM AS PERCEIVED FROM SATELLITE IMAGES. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AFWA...TAFB...AND SAB RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT...BUT THE CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT VERY PROMINENT AT THIS TIME. EMILY'S INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THIS SCENARIO WOULD APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... ALTHOUGH SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODEL SUGGEST THAT EMILY COULD STRENGTHEN AT A SOMEWHAT FASTER RATE THAN SHOWN HERE. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN CENTER POSITION ESTIMATES...BUT MY BEST GUESS IS THAT THE STORM IS NOW MOVING AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED...280 AT 13 KT. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EMILY WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD SOMEWHAT. THIS SHIFT IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL'S PREDICTION OF THE FORMATION OF A RATHER STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD IN THIS ADVISORY...HOWEVER IT IS NORTH OF THE LATEST CONSENSUS MODEL TRACK. IT IS NOTABLE THAT...WITH EMILY'S FORMATION...THIS IS THE EARLIEST DATE ON RECORD FOR THE FORMATION OF FIVE NAMED CYCLONES. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 11.4N 48.6W 40 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 12.0N 50.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 13/0600Z 12.9N 53.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 13/1800Z 13.6N 56.4W 65 KT 48HR VT 14/0600Z 14.4N 59.6W 75 KT 72HR VT 15/0600Z 16.5N 66.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 16/0600Z 18.5N 71.5W 85 KT 120HR VT 17/0600Z 20.0N 77.0W 85 KT...INLAND |
