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| #1007400 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 AM 06.Jul.2020) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 1100 AM AST Mon Jul 06 2020 Visible satellite imagery continues to show that the low-level center of Edouard is exposed to the southwest of the area of deep convection. A frontal boundary is approaching the system from the northwest and there are signs that Edouard`s extratropical transition has begun. Subjective and objective intensity estimates from TAFB and UW/CIMSS are between 35-45 kt, and the initial intensity has been raised to 40 kt based on the above, and the rapid forward speed of the cyclone. ASCAT data should provide a better assessment of Edouard`s intensity very shortly. Edouard is racing northeastward with an initial estimate of 055/32 kt. The cyclone should continue on this general speed and heading over the next day or two as it remains embedded within an area of strong southwesterly flow. The updated NHC track forecast is again near the middle of the guidance envelope and very similar to the previous advisory. Cooler waters, strong southwesterly vertical wind shear, and the approaching frontal zone should cause Edouard to complete its extratropical transition within the next 6-12 hours. Little change in strength is expected as this occurs. Gradual weakening should begin on Tuesday, and the post-tropical cyclone is forecast to dissipate within a frontal zone over the north Atlantic in a couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 40.8N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 43.2N 44.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 07/1200Z 46.7N 37.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 08/0000Z 50.0N 29.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 08/1200Z 53.0N 20.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
