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N at 13 mph
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#1010369 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 PM 30.Jul.2020)
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020
0300 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND...NEW
PROVIDENCE...ELEUTHERA...ABACOS ISLANDS...BERRY ISLANDS...GRAND
BAHAMAS ISLAND...AND BIMINI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ENTIRE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN COASTLINES
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO SEBASTIAN INLET
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON FRIDAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 71.9W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......210NE 120SE 0SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 0SW 310NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 71.9W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 71.2W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.6N 73.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 90SE 30SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.5N 76.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...160NE 100SE 40SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.2N 77.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.7N 79.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.3N 79.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 30.0N 79.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 34.6N 76.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 42.0N 69.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 71.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 31/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH