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#1010409 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 AM 31.Jul.2020)
TCMAT4

HURRICANE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020
0900 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND...NEW
PROVIDENCE...ELEUTHERA...ABACOS ISLANDS...BERRY ISLANDS...GRAND
BAHAMAS ISLAND...AND BIMINI
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ENTIRE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN COASTLINES
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO SEBASTIAN INLET
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 73.3W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.
34 KT.......180NE 90SE 50SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 210SE 90SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 73.3W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 72.7W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 22.3N 75.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 50SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.7N 78.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 27.3N 79.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 28.8N 79.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 30.6N 79.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 36.5N 75.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 42.5N 69.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 73.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 31/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE