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| #1012492 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 16.Aug.2020) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Josephine Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 16 2020 Strong vertical wind shear has continued to take a toll on Josephine, with the exposed center continuing to race well ahead of the primary convective mass. A new burst of convection has developed a little closer to the center within the past couple of hours, but with the continued loss of organization the initial wind speed has been lowered to 30 kt. With strong shear forecast to prevail over the cyclone during the next few days, continued weakening is expected and Josephine will likely become a remnant low within 24 hours or dissipate by opening into a trough of low pressure. Although the shear could lessen somewhat in a few days, it appears that there will not be much left of the system to take advantage of those conditions. As a result, the new NHC forecast calls for the dissipation of the remnant low by 96 hours. Josephine jogged a bit westward overnight, but the longer term motion is 285/11 kt. The system is forecast to turn northwestward over the next 24-36 hours as the ridge over the western Atlantic weakens due to an approaching trough of low pressure. As the low- to mid-level trough moves offshore of the southeastern United States, this should cause Josephine or it remnants to turn northward on Tuesday. The updated track forecast is a little to the left of the previous advisory, primarily to more southward and westward initial position, however, it still lies near the middle of the track guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 20.4N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 21.3N 66.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 22.5N 67.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0000Z 23.9N 69.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1200Z 25.5N 69.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0000Z 26.8N 69.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z 28.2N 68.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
