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#1013060 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 20.Aug.2020)
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 20 2020

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been flying all around the
circulation of the depression this evening, providing valuable
information on the low-level structure. The strongest winds are
primarily northeast of the center, with an elongated surface
circulation and a mid-level swirl near the southern end. While the
plane couldn`t locate a definite center, there`s enough uncertainty
and curvature in the plane`s wind field data to hold onto the
system as 30-kt tropical depression for now. Another mission should
be in the area around 1200 UTC. A late-arriving scatterometer pass
confirms both the disorganization of the cyclone and the maximum
winds.

The initial motion continues about the same as before, 290/19. A
strong subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic should remain
north of the depression during the next few days, steering the
cyclone at a fast pace to the west-northwest. After the weekend,
the ridge weakens some over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, leading to
depression probably turning more to the northwest. The guidance
has trended to the south and west after 24 hours tonight, led by
the GFS and HWRF models. I`m not inclined to make significant
changes since the models are about to ingest the information from
the reconnaissance mission, plus the initial disorganization of the
center, but the new track is still adjusted slightly to the south
and west, north of much of the guidance.

The depression should be moving through mixed conditions over the
next few days. While the water is very warm, GFS forecasts show that
there is significant mid-level shear that could continue to mix in
nearby dry air toward the center. This shear will probably relax
late this weekend or early next week, but there is very poor
agreement on how much shear remains and the timing of this event.
In addition, a track any farther south would result in potentially
mountainous land interaction, which also increases the intensity
forecast uncertainty. No significant changes were made to the
previous wind speed forecast, and the overall confidence in both
the track and intensity forecasts remain lower than normal.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
Friday night and Saturday, and Tropical Storm Watches have been
issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is likely across
this area beginning late Friday and could cause mudslides and flash
and urban flooding through Sunday.

2. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are
more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions
of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could
bring some storm surge, rainfall and wind impacts to portions of
Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early
next week. Interests there should monitor this system`s progress
and updates to the forecast over the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 17.3N 56.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 17.9N 59.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 18.6N 62.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 19.4N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 20.3N 69.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 21.3N 72.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 22.6N 76.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 26.0N 82.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 29.0N 85.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake