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Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 82 (Zeta) , Major: 145 (Laura) Florida - Any: 831 (Michael) Major: 831 (Michael)
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#1013310 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:06 PM 22.Aug.2020)
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
200 PM AST Sat Aug 22 2020

...LAURA STRENGTHENS NEAR PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 67.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Punta Palenque
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The central Bahamas
* Cuban provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de
Cuba, and Granma

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and in the Florida Keys should monitor
the progress of Laura. Tropical storm warnings and additional
watches will likely be issued for portions of central and eastern
Cuba later today and tropical storm watches may be needed for the
Florida Keys later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 67.5 West. Laura is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a generally
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Laura will move away from Puerto
Rico this afternoon, near or over Hispaniola this afternoon and
tonight, and near or over eastern Cuba Sunday and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. A Weatherflow observing site at Las Mareas, on
the south coast of Puerto Rico, reported sustained winds of 60 mph
(96 km/h) with a gust to 71 mph (115 km/h), but these winds appear
to be associated with a small-scale circulation and are not
representative of the larger-scale wind field. Some additional
strengthening is possible until the center moves over Hispaniola
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Monday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with maximum
amounts of 8 inches possible along eastern portions and the
southern slopes.

Dominican Republic and Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts
of 12 inches across southern areas.

Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 8 inches.

This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater
Antilles. Widespread minor to potential moderate river flooding is
possible in Puerto Rico.

1 to 3 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches, is
expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos,
southeast Bahamas and Jamaica.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area today through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within portions of the watch area Sunday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba,
and much of the Bahamas during the next few days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch