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The 2021 Altantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2021. 2020 is officially over, but still a 30% chance area lingers.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 87 (Zeta) , Major: 150 (Laura) Florida - Any: 836 (Michael) Major: 836 (Michael)
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#1013336 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 PM 22.Aug.2020)
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 PM AST Sat Aug 22 2020

...LAURA HEADED FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...CONTINUES TO DUMP HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 68.1W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM W OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys from
Ocean Reef to Key West and for the Dry Tortugas, including Florida
Bay.

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, and Granma.

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Andros Island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Punta Palenque
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, and Granma

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The central Bahamas
* Andros Island
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba should monitor the progress of Laura.
Additional tropical storm watches or warnings may be needed there
tonight.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 68.1 West. Laura is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a generally
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Laura will move away from Puerto
Rico this evening, near or over Hispaniola tonight, near or
over Cuba Sunday and Monday, and into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant changes in strength are forecast during the next 48
hours while Laura moves near or over Hispaniola and Cuba. Some
strengthening is forecast once Laura moves into the Gulf of Mexico
Monday night and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. A Weatherflow station at Las Mareas in Puerto Rico
recently reported sustained winds of 34 mph (55 km/h) and a wind
gust to 40 mph (64 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Monday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with maximum
amounts of 8 inches possible along eastern portions and the southern
slopes.

Dominican Republic and Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of
12 inches across southern areas.

Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 8 inches.

This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater
Antilles. Widespread minor to potential moderate river flooding is
possible in Puerto Rico.

1 to 3 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches, is
expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos,
southeast Bahamas and Jamaica.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area today through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within portions of the watch area Sunday night and
Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba,
much of the Bahamas, and the Florida Keys during the next few days.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch