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The 2021 Altantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2021. 2020 is officially over, but still a 30% chance area lingers.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 91 (Zeta) , Major: 154 (Laura) Florida - Any: 840 (Michael) Major: 840 (Michael)
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#1013509 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 PM 23.Aug.2020)
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
LAURA JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING LIKELY OVER
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 75.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

The Tropical Storm Watch for the the Florida Keys north of Craig
Key and for Florida Bay has been discontinued.

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued all
Tropical Storm Warnings for the Dominican Republic.

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands, and for the southeastern
Bahamas except for Inagua and the Ragged Islands. The Tropical
Storm Watch for the central Bahamas and Andros Island has been
discontinued.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Entire coast of the Haiti
* Inagua and the Ragged Islands in southeastern Bahamas
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West and the Dry Tortugas

The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 75.2 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is foreast by
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move
near or over southern coast Cuba tonight and Monday, and move over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. Laura is
expected to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast while Laura moves near
the southern coast of Cuba tonight. However, strengthening is
forecast after the storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and Laura is
forecast to become a hurricane late Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft
data is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall accumulations through Tuesday:

Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with
maximum amounts of 12 inches.

Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches, maximum amounts of 6 inches.

Florida Keys, Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas: 1 to 2 inches.

Across the Greater Antilles this heavy rainfall could lead to
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for
mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Haiti through this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Cuba
later tonight through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in Little Cayman and Cayman Brac on Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within portions of the watch area in the
Florida Keys Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across central and western Cuba, the central and northwestern
Bahamas, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown