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Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 87 (Zeta) , Major: 150 (Laura) Florida - Any: 837 (Michael) Major: 837 (Michael)
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#1013596 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 AM 24.Aug.2020)
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA WILL SPREAD
WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY....


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 78.9W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM ESE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the middle and lower
Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to Key West.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West
* Dry Tortugas

The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Hurricane Watch will likely be required for portions of the U.S.
northwest Gulf coast area by this evening.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 78.9 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move
over the Caribbean Sea just offshore the southern coast of Cuba
today, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early
Tuesday morning. Laura is then forecast to move over the central and
northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and Laura is forecast to
become a hurricane by early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall accumulations through Tuesday:

Jamaica and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches.

Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches, maximum amounts of 6 inches.

Florida Keys, Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Northwest Bahamas:
1 to 2 inches.

Across the Greater Antilles this heavy rainfall could lead to
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for
mudslides.

From late Wednesday into Friday, Laura is expected to produce
rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the
Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower
Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and
urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and the
possibility of some minor river flooding across this region.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward
within the warning area in Cuba through today. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in Little Cayman and Cayman Brac by this
afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are also expected within
the warning area in the Florida middle and Lower Keys and the Dry
Tortugas this afternoon and continuing into tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across central and western Cuba, the central and northwestern
Bahamas, and the Florida Keys today. Please consult products
from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado will be possible later today into
tonight across the Florida Keys.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart