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The 2021 Altantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2021. 2020 is officially over, but still a 30% chance area lingers.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 91 (Zeta) , Major: 154 (Laura) Florida - Any: 840 (Michael) Major: 840 (Michael)
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#1013818 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:12 AM 25.Aug.2020)

Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

Satellite imagery shows that Laura has become a little better
organized since it crossed western Cuba, and it now has a central
dense overcast and some outer banding in the southern quadrant.
Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
included SFMR winds of near 65 kt, 700-mb flight-level winds as high
as 77 kt, and a central pressure near 990 mb. Based on these data,
Laura has been upgraded to a hurricane with an initial intensity of
65 kt.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 290/14 kt. The
hurricane is currently on the south side of a large-deep layer ridge
over the southeastern United States, and it is moving toward a break
in the ridge caused by mid- to -upper-level troughing over Texas and
the southern Great Plains. The current and forecast synoptic
pattern should steer Laura west-northwestward today followed by a
turn toward the northwest tonight and toward the north by Wednesday
night and Thursday. This will result in the hurricane making
landfall in the area of southwestern Louisiana or the upper Texas
coast late Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The new forecast
track before landfall has been nudged a little to the west of the
previous track in response to a westward nudge in the guidance.
However, it still lies a little east of the consensus models at the
time of landfall. After landfall, Laura is expected to recurve into
the westerlies and move eastward through the Tennessee Valley and
the mid-Atlantic States.

The hurricane currently looks a little ragged, with little or no
convection outside of the central dense overcast and the southern
quadrant banding. This may be due to dry air in the vicinity and
some light northerly shear. Conditions appear generally favorable
for strengthening during the next 36 h, and the new intensity
forecast calls for Laura to become a major hurricane during this
time. The global model are in good agreement that the hurricane
should encounter increasing shear in the last 12 h before landfall,
although the potential impacts on the landfall intensity are
unclear. After landfall, Laura should weaken through the 96 h
point. After that, some re-intensification is expected as the
storm becomes extratropical.

Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact details of the
track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 48 h
is around 80 miles and the average intensity error is close to 15
mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will
extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Laura is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast at or
near major hurricane intensity Wednesday night. Do not focus on the
details of the official forecast given the typical uncertainty in
NHC`s track and intensity predictions. Storm surge, wind, and
rainfall hazards will extend well away from Laura`s center along the
Gulf Coast.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge accompanied
by large and dangerous waves from San Luis Pass, Texas, to the Mouth
of the Mississippi River, including areas inside the Port Arthur
Hurricane Flood Protection system. A Storm Surge Warning is in
effect and residents should follow any advice given by local
officials. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion today, as water levels will begin to rise Wednesday.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected by Wednesday evening in the
area from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana,
and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in the warning area Wednesday afternoon.

4. The threat of widespread flash and urban flooding along with
small streams overflowing their banks will be increasing Wednesday
night into Thursday from far eastern Texas, across Louisiana, and
Arkansas. This will also lead to minor to isolated moderate river
flooding. The heavy rainfall threat will spread northeastward into
the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys Friday and


INIT 25/1500Z 23.7N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 24.6N 89.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 26.0N 91.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 28.0N 93.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 30.5N 93.9W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
60H 28/0000Z 33.1N 93.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 28/1200Z 35.2N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 29/1200Z 37.5N 83.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1200Z 40.5N 69.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Forecaster Beven