|#1014114 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 AM 27.Aug.2020)|
Hurricane Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
100 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LAURA MAKES LANDFALL
NEAR CAMERON LOUISIANA...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM E OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Hurricane Warning from High Island westward to San Luis Pass,
Texas has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning.
The Tropical Storm Warning southwest of San Luis Pass has been
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass to High Island Texas
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), Doppler radar images indicate that the eye
of Hurricane Laura has made landfall at the coast near Cameron,
Louisiana, near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 93.3 West. Laura is
moving toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion
should continue through the day. A northeastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected tonight and Friday. On the
forecast track, Laura will move inland across southwestern Louisiana
this morning, and then continue northward across the state through
this afternoon. The center of Laura is forecast to move over
Arkansas tonight, and over the mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday, and
the mid-Atlantic states on Saturday.
Air Force reconnaissance and Doppler radar data indicate that the
maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast as Laura moves inland.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km). A Weatherflow site in Cameron recently reported a
sustained wind of 101 mph (163 km/h) with a gust to 116 mph (187
km/h). A National Ocean Service site at Calcasieu Pass reported a
sustained wind of 93 mph (150 km/h) and a wind gust of 127 mph (204
km/h) within the last hour. A wind gust of 104 mph (167 km/h) was
recently reported at Lake Charles, Louisiana.
The minimum central pressure estimated the from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 938 mb (27.70 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Johnson Bayou to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge including Calcasieu
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to Intracoastal City...10-15 ft
Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12 ft
Sea Rim State Park to Johnson Bayou including Sabine Lake...6-9 ft
Morgan City to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
High Island to Sea Rim State Park...3-6 ft
Freeport to High Island including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause
catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal
City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge
could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate coastline,
and flood waters will not fully recede for several days after the
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area through the morning, with catastrophic wind damage
expected near Laura`s eyewall. Tropical storm conditions will
spread northward within the warning areas through the day.
Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to
spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana this morning.
RAINFALL: Through Friday, Laura is expected to produce the following
Across the northwestern Gulf Coast from far southwest Louisiana and
the Golden Triangle of Southeast Texas: 8 to 12 inches with isolated
totals of 18 inches.
Across central and the rest of western Louisiana into far eastern
Texas: 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches.
Across much of Arkansas: 3 to 7 inches with isolated totals of 10
This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small
streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and minor to moderate
freshwater river flooding.
By Friday into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce the following
Across the mid-Mississippi and portions of the Tennessee Valley,
Lower Ohio Valley, and central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.
This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding and rapid rises
on small streams.
Across the Mid-Atlantic Region: 1 to 3 inches.
TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are expected overnight over Louisiana,
far southeast Texas, and southwestern Mississippi. The risk for
tornadoes will continue through the day across Louisiana, Arkansas,
and western Mississippi.
SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast
from the west coast of Florida to Texas and northeastern Mexico.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.