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TS Beta Strengthening, Hurricane Watches are now up from Port Aransas, TX to High Island, TX.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 3 (Sally) , Major: 23 (Laura) Florida - Any: 709 (Michael) Major: 709 (Michael)
25.5N 58.5W
Wind: 125MPH
Pres: 952mb
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#1015511 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 06.Sep.2020)

Tropical Depression Seventeen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 06 2020

The tropical low that the National Hurricane Center has been
tracking the past few days west of the Cabo Verde Islands has
developed enough convective banding for the system to be classified
as a tropical depression. A 06/2345Z ASCAT-B scatterometer pass
indicated surface wind speeds of 30-31 kt north of the center, which
are supported by a T2.0/30 kt Dvorak satellite intensity estimate
from TAFB at 07/0000 UTC.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/04kt. The center has
been jumping around somewhat due to small, brief convective bursts
that then dissipate, leaving small swirls rotating around the mean
circulation center. However, the latest ASCAT data showed a much
better defined overall circulation, especially in the inner core
wind field region, so the forward motion should stabilize fairly
soon. The depression is expected to remain caught in weak steering
flow for the next 5 days, so only a slow westward motion is expected
tonight and Monday, followed by a west-northwestward motion by later
Monday and Tuesday that will continue through the remainder of the
120-h forecast period. Possible track forecast complications could
develop by days 3-5 if binary interaction occurs between the
depression and the large low (Invest 93L) currently located
southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands, resulting in TD-17 not gaining
as much latitude as currently indicated. The NHC forecast track lies
down the middle of the simple- and corrected-consensus model
guidance envelope.

The depression is only forecast to slowly strengthen for the next 4
days or so due to expected intrusions of dry mid-level air. By day
5, increasing southerly vertical wind shear on the east side of a
large upper-level low that is forecast to cut off north of Puerto
Rico is expected to induce gradual weakening. However, both the
timing of the development of the low and its west-southwestward
motion will determine if sufficient shear will prevent further
strengthening after 96 h; a slower formation of the low and/or a
slower retrograding motion would result in at least less weakening.
The NHC intensity forecast closely follows an average of the IVCN
and NOAA-HCCA intensity consensus models.


INIT 07/0300Z 17.0N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 17.0N 42.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 17.2N 42.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 17.5N 43.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 18.0N 44.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 18.6N 46.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 19.2N 48.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 20.4N 51.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 21.2N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

Forecaster Stewart