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TS Beta Strengthening, Hurricane Watches are now up from Port Aransas, TX to High Island, TX.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 3 (Sally) , Major: 23 (Laura) Florida - Any: 709 (Michael) Major: 709 (Michael)
25.5N 58.5W
Wind: 125MPH
Pres: 952mb
Nw at 14 mph
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26.0N 92.5W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 996mb
N at 8 mph
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13.1N 36.9W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Wnw at 17 mph
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40.9N 6.9W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Ne at 16 mph
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#1015574 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 07.Sep.2020)

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 07 2020

Visible imagery and recent ASCAT data indicate that the circulation
of Paulette is quite elongated from southwest to northeast. However,
the ASCAT data indicated that winds up to tropical-storm-force were
present, and this was corroborated by a 35 kt Dvorak-based intensity
estimate from TAFB. Paulette is the 16th named storm of the 2020
Atlantic hurricane season. It is also the earliest 16th named storm
of any Atlantic season by 10 days. The previous record was Philippe,
which formed on September 17, 2005.

Although it is elongated, the tropical storm`s structure seems to
have improved over the past few hours, with convection increasing in
both coverage and organization. Although moderate southerly shear
and some dry environmental air appear to be limiting factors, most
of the intensity guidance suggests that modest strengthening is
likely for the next couple of days. Near the end of the week, the
models indicate that Paulette`s winds will plateau or possibly
decrease. This appears to be the result of increasing southwesterly
shear associated with a upper-level trough that is forecast to
deepen over the central Atlantic on Thursday and Friday. The
official intensity forecast remains very near the multi-model

Paulette has moved very little during the past few hours, but a
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected to resume
shortly. Fluctuations in the strength of a mid-level ridge over the
western and central Atlantic will likely cause Paulette`s exact
speed and heading to fluctuate during the next several says, but the
guidance agrees that it should generally head northwestward through
the end of the week. It is likely that the stronger Paulette gets,
the farther north it will move since the aforementioned upper-level
trough will have a greater influence on its track. The NHC track
forecast is based on a blend of the previous forecast and the latest
multi-model consensus.


INIT 07/1500Z 17.2N 42.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 17.4N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 17.9N 43.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 18.7N 44.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 19.6N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 20.3N 48.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 20.7N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 21.0N 53.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 23.0N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

Forecaster Zelinsky