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#TD22 may be named Fri and be a major flood threat. #98L could TD soon. Wilfred then Alpha by end of the week possible.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 2 (Sally) , Major: 22 (Laura) Florida - Any: 708 (Michael) Major: 708 (Michael)
21.6N 55.4W
Wind: 130MPH
Pres: 947mb
Nw at 12 mph
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22.9N 94.1W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Nne at 6 mph
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#1015641 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 07.Sep.2020)

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 07 2020

Satellite images show that Paulette continues to become better
organized, with a more symmetric presentation and very deep
convection near or just north of the center. The initial wind speed
is increased to 40 kt, a little higher than recent subjective Dvorak
estimates, but close to the objective estimates and the UW-CIMSS
satellite consensus. Further strengthening is expected during the
next day or so while the storm remains in a warm SST and
low-to-moderate shear environment. By midweek, some weakening is
forecast due to an increase in shear from an enhanced mid-oceanic
upper-level trough. There`s a fair amount of uncertainty on how
quickly the tropical cyclone moves across the trough axis, which
would then allow Paulette to find an area of lighter shear, plus
very warm water, by the end of the forecast period. The intensity
forecast is slightly higher in the short-term, and lower in the
day-4 period just before the environment is forecast to improve.

Paulette appears to be moving slowly north-northwestward this
evening. A mid-level ridge is likely to build over the western and
central North Atlantic in a day or two, and this pattern should
cause Paulette to move faster toward the northwest tomorrow, and
west-northwestward or westward through late week. A turn back
toward the west-northwest or northwest is possible over the weekend
as the cyclone reaches the western periphery of the ridge. This is
not a particularly certain forecast because the track models aren`t
in good agreement, perhaps linked to the strength of Paulette, and
there is significant spread in the various ensemble guidance. With
no clear trends to rely on, and since the new model consensus came
in very close to the previous NHC forecast, the new NHC track
prediction is basically unchanged from the previous one.


INIT 08/0300Z 17.8N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 18.4N 42.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 19.2N 44.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 19.9N 45.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 20.5N 47.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 20.9N 49.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 21.3N 51.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 22.5N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 25.0N 58.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

Forecaster Blake