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#TD22 may be named Fri and be a major flood threat. #98L could TD soon. Wilfred then Alpha by end of the week possible.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 2 (Sally) , Major: 22 (Laura) Florida - Any: 708 (Michael) Major: 708 (Michael)
21.6N 55.4W
Wind: 130MPH
Pres: 947mb
Nw at 12 mph
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22.9N 94.1W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Nne at 6 mph
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#1015671 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 AM 08.Sep.2020)

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Tue Sep 08 2020

GOES-16 Proxy-VIS and enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery reveals
that Paulette`s cloud pattern has continued to improve during the
past several hours. Specifically, the developing inner core is
much more symmetric with new bursts of deep convection (-76C cloud
tops) near the surface circulation center. Subsequently, subjective
and objective satellite intensity estimates support an initial
intensity of 45 kt.

The global models and the statistical-dynamical intensity guidance
indicate increasing southwesterly shear commencing later today.
So, only modest strengthening is shown in the NHC foreast during
next 24 hours. On Friday, the shear stiffens and becomes less
diffluent as the cyclone approaches the high amplitude mid-Atlantic
TUTT. Therefore, Gradual weakening is expected to occur at that
time. Beyond day 3, there are some mixed signals, specifically in
the GFS/FV3 and ECMWF SHIPS output. The GFS/FV3 continues to
indicate strong southwesterly shear through day 5 further weakening
Paulette to a depression around day 4. The ECMWF SHIPS, however,
shows a more southerly and diffluent upper wind pattern supporting
reintensification after day 4. The intensity forecast sides with
that latter solution and also agrees with the HCCA intensity
multi-model indicating the same intensity trend.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 325/5 kt.
The rather weak synoptic steering pattern consists of a large mid-
to upper-level low just west of the Canary Islands and ridging to
the northwest of the cyclone. During the next couple of days, the
large-scale models show the upper low filling and lifting
northeastward, allowing the subtropical ridge to build in behind
the departing upper low from the western Atlantic. This change
in the pattern should cause Paulette to turn west-northwestward on
Wednesday and continue moving in this general motion through early
Saturday. Through the remaining portion of the period, the global
models indicate a major shortwave trough moving off of the
northeast coast of the U.S. and breaking down the western extent of
the subtropical ridge/Bermuda high. This growing weakness in the
ridge should cause Paulette to turn toward the northwest early
Sunday. The official track forecast is a little bit slower and to
the right of the previous forecast after day 3, and is close to the
various consensus aids.


INIT 08/0900Z 18.1N 42.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 18.6N 43.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 19.5N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 20.2N 46.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 20.5N 48.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 20.8N 50.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 21.3N 51.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 22.9N 54.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 25.4N 57.8W 50 KT 60 MPH

Forecaster Roberts