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TS Beta Strengthening, Hurricane Watches are now up from Port Aransas, TX to High Island, TX.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 3 (Sally) , Major: 23 (Laura) Florida - Any: 709 (Michael) Major: 709 (Michael)
25.5N 58.5W
Wind: 125MPH
Pres: 952mb
Moving:
Nw at 14 mph
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26.5N 92.4W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 995mb
Moving:
N at 8 mph
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13.1N 36.9W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
Wnw at 17 mph
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40.9N 6.9W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Moving:
Ne at 16 mph
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#1015736 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 08.Sep.2020)
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Tue Sep 08 2020

Shear has started to take a toll on Paulette`s structure. Convection
is again primarily limited to the northeast quadrant with little
signs of banding. It is certainly possible that convection will
expand again tonight when Paulette is farther removed from the
diurnal convective minimum, but for the moment it does not look like
further intensification is imminent. Dvorak classifications from
TAFB and SAB are still T-3.5/55 kt, and that is the basis for the
intensity estimate.

If convection does increase tonight, Paulette will have a brief
window for further strengthening before an expected increase in
southerly shear on Wednesday. At a minimum, Paulette`s intensity
should then level off, and it will probably begin to weaken. Later
this week or over the weekend Paulette will have an opportunity to
restrengthen, depending on its interaction with an upper-level low
expected to be just west of the cyclone. The spread in the guidance
at that point is very high ranging from near dissipation to a
category 2 hurricane. The NHC intensity forecast is mostly unchanged
for now, but Paulette could certainly be much stronger or weaker
over the weekend than currently forecast.

There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning, and
therefore little change to the track forecast itself. Paulette
should gradually turn westward by late Wednesday and then back
toward the northwest later this week as a ridge to its north builds
and weakens over the next several days. The model spread is high,
since there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in exactly how far
west Paulette will make it before it turns northwestward. Confidence
in the forecast beyond 72 h remains low. The NHC forecast track is
based heavily on the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 18.7N 44.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 19.2N 45.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 19.9N 47.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 20.3N 49.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 20.5N 50.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 20.7N 52.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 21.4N 53.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 23.5N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 26.5N 59.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky