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TS Beta Strengthening, Hurricane Watches are now up from Port Aransas, TX to High Island, TX.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 3 (Sally) , Major: 23 (Laura) Florida - Any: 709 (Michael) Major: 709 (Michael)
24.9N 58.2W
Wind: 125MPH
Pres: 952mb
Nw at 14 mph
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26.0N 92.5W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 996mb
N at 8 mph
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13.1N 36.9W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Wnw at 17 mph
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40.9N 6.9W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Ne at 16 mph
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#1015768 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 08.Sep.2020)

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 08 2020

Microwave and satellite data suggest that vertical shear is
weakening Paulette. The center is near the southern side of a large
thunderstorm cluster, with the bulk of deep convection in the
northeastern quadrant of the cyclone. A recent ASCAT-B pass showed
maximum winds of 45-50 kt, a little lower than the other satellite
estimates, and 50 kt is chosen as the initial wind speed.

With Paulette already on a weakening trend, it seems that the window
for significant strengthening has closed. More likely, a gradual
decay of the storm is anticipated due to moderate or strong shear
during the next few days. This shear could abate by the end of the
forecast period due to Paulette moving around the northeastern side
of a large mid-to-upper level low, which is a common position for
the re-intensification of a tropical cyclone after encountering the
mid-oceanic trough. The new forecast is lowered from the previous
one for the first few days and then raised slightly at the longer
ranges. This is consistent with a blend of the intensity model
consensus, leaning toward the NOAA corrected-consensus guidance at
the end.

The storm is moving northwestward at about 8 kt. There has been
some convergence of the model guidance during the next few days as
Paulette should move west-northwestward tomorrow and westward on
Thursday around a mid-level ridge. Thus, little change has been
made from the previous forecast during the first 48-72h. Afterwards,
the forecast is shifted to the north by 45-60 n mi under the
assumption that Paulette stays coherent as a tropical cyclone and
takes a turn to the northwest this weekend on the eastern flank of
the aforementioned mid-to-upper level low. The new track forecast
is northeast of the model consensus and places less emphasis on
models, like the 12Z ECMWF, which show Paulette staying weaker and
missing the full influence of the low.


INIT 09/0300Z 19.2N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 19.8N 46.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 20.2N 48.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 20.6N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 20.8N 51.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 21.1N 52.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 21.9N 53.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 24.4N 55.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 27.5N 59.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

Forecaster Blake