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TS Beta Strengthening, Hurricane Watches are now up from Port Aransas, TX to High Island, TX.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 3 (Sally) , Major: 23 (Laura) Florida - Any: 709 (Michael) Major: 709 (Michael)
24.9N 58.2W
Wind: 125MPH
Pres: 952mb
Moving:
Nw at 14 mph
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26.0N 92.5W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 996mb
Moving:
N at 8 mph
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13.1N 36.9W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
Wnw at 17 mph
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40.9N 6.9W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Moving:
Ne at 16 mph
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#1015800 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 AM 09.Sep.2020)
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

The 20-30 kt of southwesterly shear continues to have a significant
impact on Paulette`s inner core. A 0615 UTC Global Precipitation
Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager overpass showed a severely
sheared tropical cyclone with the exposed surface circulation
displaced to the south of the cloud canopy. Although the
objective ADT and an earlier SATCON analysis yield 45 kt, The
initial intensity is held at a generous 50 kt for this advisory in
deference to last night`s scatterometer pass showing a few 50 kt
winds.

In addition to the moderate, persistent shear, the RAMMB/CIRA
Average Vertical Instability parameter time series analysis
revealed a higher than normal (1995-2010) statically stable
environment, another potential inhibiting factor. This was further
supported by the statistical-dynamical intensity models showing
a rather parched mid-troposphere (less than 58%). Therefore,
slow weakening of Paulette is forecast during the next few days.
Toward the end of the period, the ECMWF and FV3 SHIPS intensity
models continue to indicate a more southerly, diffluent pattern
which should aid in some restrengthening, and this is indicated in
the NHC forecast.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/7 kt.
Paulette should turn west-northwestward later today and westward on
Thursday around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge
to the northeast of the cyclone. A turn northwestward is predicted
on Saturday as Paulette moves further into a growing weakness in
the ridge over the western Atlantic. The official forecast is an
update of the previous one through 72 hrs, then is shifted to the
left through day 5 to lies between the HCCA consensus and the
the HFIP/NUOPC Project`s 5EMN 133 member multi-model ensemble mean.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 19.2N 45.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 19.7N 46.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 20.3N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 20.5N 50.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 20.8N 52.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 21.4N 53.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 22.7N 54.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 25.9N 58.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 28.7N 61.4W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts