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TS Beta Strengthening, Hurricane Watches are now up from Port Aransas, TX to High Island, TX.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 3 (Sally) , Major: 23 (Laura) Florida - Any: 709 (Michael) Major: 709 (Michael)
24.9N 58.2W
Wind: 125MPH
Pres: 952mb
Moving:
Nw at 14 mph
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26.0N 92.5W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 996mb
Moving:
N at 8 mph
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13.1N 36.9W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
Wnw at 17 mph
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40.9N 6.9W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Moving:
Ne at 16 mph
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#1015945 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 AM 10.Sep.2020)
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

Although Paulette`s center of circulation has separated farther
south from the cloud mass during the past several hours, the
cyclone is still producing an area of deep convection consisting of
-79C cold cloud tops. Earlier scatterometer data indicated surface
winds of 45-50 kt in this region of coldest cloud tops, so it`s
reasonable to think that those winds are still present. Therefore,
the initial intensity is held at 50 kt for this advisory.

Both the ECMWF and FV3 SHIPS intensity models show the shear
magnitude increasing to 35-40 kt today. As a result, Paulette is
expected to begin weakening by this evening. Over the weekend,
however, the shear is forecast to decrease gradually and shift from
the southeast and become a bit more diffluent, which should allow
for reintensification. Several of the skilled intensity guidance,
including the aforementioned SHIPS, and the consensus models, HCCA
and IVCN, now show Paulette as a hurricane in 4 days, or sooner
(COAMPS-TC). The official intensity forecast is once again
adjusted upward, and lies between the HCCA (a little higher) and
the Decay SHIPS intensity guidance.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or
290/9 kt and Paulette should continue in this general motion
through Friday as a mid-tropospheric ridge temporarily builds over
the central Atlantic in response to a mid- to upper-level trough,
extending southwestward from the Azores Islands, weakening and
lifting northeastward. By Saturday morning, a break in the
aforementioned ridge develops due to a combination of mid- to
upper-level low situated to the northwest of the cyclone and a
mid-latitude shortwave trough moving off of the northeast U.S.
This change in the synoptic steering pattern should cause the
tropical cyclone to turn toward the northwest with an increase in
forward speed. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous
advisory, but a little faster beyond 48 hours, and is shifted to
the left, closer to the HCCA and TVCN consensus models at days 4
and 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 20.9N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 21.3N 50.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 21.8N 52.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 22.8N 54.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 24.1N 55.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 25.7N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 27.1N 59.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 29.7N 63.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 32.0N 64.9W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts