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TS Beta Strengthening, Hurricane Watches are now up from Port Aransas, TX to High Island, TX.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 3 (Sally) , Major: 23 (Laura) Florida - Any: 709 (Michael) Major: 709 (Michael)
24.9N 58.2W
Wind: 125MPH
Pres: 952mb
Nw at 14 mph
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26.0N 92.5W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 996mb
N at 8 mph
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13.1N 36.9W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Wnw at 17 mph
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40.9N 6.9W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Ne at 16 mph
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#1015976 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 AM 10.Sep.2020)

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

The highest winds in a recent scatterometer pass have decreased a
little since last evening, and they remain embedded within deep
convection which is displaced to the north of the center of
circulation. Paulette`s intensity is estimated to have decreased
to 45 kt based on this ASCAT pass and Dvorak CI numbers of 3.0/45
kt from both TAFB and SAB.

The sheared convection has been tugging Paulette`s center northward
at times, causing wobbles in the estimated longer-term
west-northwestward motion of 295/9 kt. For the next 4 days or so,
fluctuations in the strength of the subtropical ridge to the north
of Paulette will cause the cyclone`s trajectory to vary between
west-northwest and northwest, with a peak in forward speed around
day 3. At the end of the forecast period, a mid-latitude trough is
expected to move across the northeastern United States, with a
mid-tropospheric high becoming established over the central
Atlantic. This should allow Paulette to begin to recurve over the
western Atlantic, turning northward by day 5. The only notable
change in the track guidance on this cycle was a slight westward
shift among some of the models on days 4 and 5, and the NHC track
forecast follows suit, lying close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus
(HCCA) aid.

Southwesterly shear has increased over the cyclone as expected, with
the latest UW-CIMSS analysis now between 35 and 40 kt. SHIPS
diagnoses suggest that the shear over Paulette should peak in about
12 hours, thus a little more weakening is anticipated over the next
day or so. The shear is then forecast to gradually abate, and both
the GFS and ECMWF versions of the SHIPS guidance show the shear
magnitudes decreasing to 10 kt or less in 3-4 days. This more
favorable environment, combined with a more unstable air mass and
sea surface temperatures exceeding 29 degrees Celsius, are expected
to allow Paulette to restrengthen and become a hurricane as it
moves in the vicinity of Bermuda. The new NHC intensity forecast
has been raised a bit between days 2 and 4 compared to the previous
prediction, although it still lies below the intensity consensus,
IVCN, and the HCCA solutions. Therefore, additional upward
adjustments to the forecast intensity may be required later today.


INIT 10/1500Z 21.5N 49.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 21.8N 50.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 22.6N 52.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 23.8N 54.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 25.4N 56.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 13/0000Z 26.9N 58.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 28.0N 61.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 30.0N 65.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 32.5N 65.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

Forecaster Berg