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TS Beta Strengthening, Hurricane Watches are now up from Port Aransas, TX to High Island, TX.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 3 (Sally) , Major: 23 (Laura) Florida - Any: 709 (Michael) Major: 709 (Michael)
24.9N 58.2W
Wind: 125MPH
Pres: 952mb
Nw at 14 mph
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26.0N 92.5W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 996mb
N at 8 mph
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13.1N 36.9W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Wnw at 17 mph
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40.9N 6.9W
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Pres: 1005mb
Ne at 16 mph
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#1016070 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 AM 11.Sep.2020)

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

Paulette continues to experience the effects of 35-40 kt of
southwesterly vertical shear, which has caused the center to
occasionally become exposed to the south and southwest of the
primary convective bursts. Since the various satellite intensity
estimates are unchanged since the last scatterometer overpass, the
initial intensity is held at 55 kt. However, this could be a
little generous.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 300/9 kt. There is
little change to either the forecast track philosophy or the
forecast track from the last advisory. The track guidance models
remain in good agreement between a generally northwest to
west-northwestward motion over the next 3-4 days as the cyclone
is steered by the subtropical ridge to its north and northeast.
Around day 4, the cyclone is expected to recurve into the
westerlies through a break in the ridge, with this turn to the
northeast expected at about the time of closest approach to
Bermuda. The new forecast track lies close to the various
consensus models. It should be noted that there is still
sufficient spread in the track guidance such that it is too soon
to know what types of impacts Paulette could have on Bermuda early
next week.

The global models are in reasonable agreement that the shear over
Paulette should subside, although it may be another 24 h before it
subsides enough that significant strengthening can occur. After
that, conditions should be favorable for strengthening until the
system again encounters strong upper-level winds near 120 h after
recurvature. The intensity guidance is in good agreement that
Paulette will strengthen to a hurricane during this time and reach a
peak intensity in about 96 h, and the new intensity forecast has
only minor changes from the previous forecast. The new forecast is
close to, but a little weaker than the various intensity consensus

Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this
weekend and make its closest approach to the island on Monday and
Tuesday. While the exact details of Paulette`s track and intensity
near the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm
surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda continues to increase.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are expected to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


INIT 11/0900Z 23.1N 51.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 23.9N 53.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 25.3N 54.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 26.8N 56.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 28.2N 58.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 13/1800Z 29.5N 61.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 30.7N 63.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 33.5N 64.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 36.0N 59.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

Forecaster Beven