Current Radar or Satellite Image - Central Florida Hurricane Center - 25 Years Tracking StormsHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

TS Beta Strengthening, Hurricane Watches are now up from Port Aransas, TX to High Island, TX.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 3 (Sally) , Major: 23 (Laura) Florida - Any: 709 (Michael) Major: 709 (Michael)
25.5N 58.5W
Wind: 125MPH
Pres: 952mb
Nw at 14 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
26.5N 92.4W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 995mb
N at 8 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
13.1N 36.9W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Wnw at 17 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
40.9N 6.9W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Ne at 16 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
Login to remove ads

Show Selection:
Show plain - Location:
#1016102 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 AM 11.Sep.2020)

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

Despite what is being analyzed as roughly 40 kt of deep-layer
southwesterly shear, Paulette`s center is embedded beneath the
cirrus canopy of a strong convective burst to the north. Recent
microwave images do confirm, however, that the center remains
displaced from the convection. We have not yet received new
scatterometer data over Paulette, and since the structure has not
degraded from overnight, the initial intensity remains 55 kt. This
is in best agreement with the Dvorak estimate from TAFB.

Paulette appears to have turned toward the northwest (305/9 kt)
based on center fixes over the past 12 hours. A weakness in the
subtropical ridge is beginning to develop to the north of Paulette,
which should allow the cyclone to maintain a motion toward the
northwest or west-northwest during the next 3 days. After that
time, a longwave trough forecast to move across the northeastern
United States is expected to erode the ridge eastward, causing
Paulette to recurve sharply toward the north and northeast in the
vicinity of Bermuda on days 4 and 5. Except for some minor speed
differences, the track models agree on this general trajectory and
have less east-to-west spread during the recurvature phase than
they did yesterday. The GFS, ECMWF, HCCA, and Florida State
Superensemble aids all lie along the western side of the guidance
envelope at the time of recurvature, and as a result the new NHC
track has been nudged a little west of the previous prediction
during that period in deference to those normally reliable models.

The shear affecting Paulette is forecast to abate over the next 48
hours while the storm also moves over warmer ocean waters and into
a more unstable environment. Given the cyclone`s hardiness in the
face of the ongoing shear, Paulette is unlikely to have problems
responding to the improving environment. Paulette is now forecast
to become a hurricane in 36 hours, which is supported by the latest
dynamical hurricane models, the superensemble aids, and the IVCN
intensity consensus. Continued strengthening is anticipated after
36 hours, with Paulette likely to reach a peak intensity in 4-5

Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this
weekend and make its closest approach to the island on Monday.
While the exact details of Paulette`s track and intensity near the
island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge,
and heavy rainfall on Bermuda continues to increase.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to the Greater
Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States
into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.


INIT 11/1500Z 23.6N 52.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 24.6N 53.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 26.1N 55.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 27.6N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 28.9N 59.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 14/0000Z 30.2N 62.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 31.6N 64.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 34.5N 63.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 37.0N 58.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

Forecaster Berg