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TS Beta Strengthening, Hurricane Watches are now up from Port Aransas, TX to High Island, TX.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 3 (Sally) , Major: 23 (Laura) Florida - Any: 709 (Michael) Major: 709 (Michael)
25.5N 58.5W
Wind: 125MPH
Pres: 952mb
Moving:
Nw at 14 mph
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26.0N 92.5W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 996mb
Moving:
N at 8 mph
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13.1N 36.9W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
Wnw at 17 mph
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40.9N 6.9W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Moving:
Ne at 16 mph
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#1016141 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 PM 11.Sep.2020)
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

Paulette inconveniently fell in a gap between all three ASCAT
passes this morning, so we haven`t gotten any better handle on the
cyclone`s intensity since last evening`s pass. However, Dvorak
classifications have not budged, so maintaining the initial
intensity of 55 kt seems sound. In addition, although an AMSR
microwave pass from around 17 UTC still showed the system being
sheared, it also revealed a ragged mid-level eye feature. Since
the shear is expected to abate to less than 10 kt by 48 hours,
Paulette is likely to intensify, possibly significantly so, and it
is now forecast to become a hurricane on Saturday. The
intensification trend is expected to continue through day 4, and
Paulette has the potential to be a dangerous hurricane when it
makes its closest approach to Bermuda on Monday. Paulette`s
forecast peak intensity (on day 4) has been nudged up slightly,
lying near the SHIPS and HCCA guidance, but still a little below
the latest HWRF simulation.

Paulette has picked up some speed and is now moving toward the
northwest (310 degrees) at 11 kt. The track forecast reasoning
has not changed since this morning. Paulette should maintain a
motion toward the northwest or west-northwest during the next 2 to
3 days to the south of a weakening subtropical ridge. By day 3, a
longwave trough is forecast to move across the northeastern
United States, eroding the ridge eastward, and causing Paulette to
recurve sharply toward the north and northeast in the vicinity of
Bermuda on Monday. After that time, Paulette is forecast to become
embedded in the mid-latitude flow and accelerate northeastward
toward the north Atlantic. The spread in the track guidance has
continued to tighten up, which increases the confidence in the
official track forecast. The updated forecast has been shifted
slightly westward around the time that Paulette will be near
Bermuda, and it is embedded among the usually-reliable GFS, ECMWF,
and HCCA model solutions.


Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane during
the next couple of days and make its closest approach to the island
on Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and
heavy rainfall on Bermuda beginning Sunday night is becoming more
likely, and a hurricane watch could be required for the island
tonight or early Saturday.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to the Greater
Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States
into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 24.6N 53.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 25.9N 55.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 27.5N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 28.7N 59.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 29.8N 62.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 31.1N 64.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 32.6N 65.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 36.0N 62.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 39.0N 56.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg