Current Radar or Satellite Image - Central Florida Hurricane Center - 25 Years Tracking StormsHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

Struggling Beta and now former Alpha that formed but then poofed over Portugal begin the Greek Alphabeta with weaker storms, so far
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 7 (Sally) , Major: 27 (Laura) Florida - Any: 714 (Michael) Major: 714 (Michael)
49.7N 59.2W
Wind: 50MPH
Pres: 975mb
Nne at 31 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
30.5N 93.4W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1006mb
Ne at 13 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
Login to remove ads

Show Selection:
Show plain - Location:
#1016143 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:02 PM 11.Sep.2020)

Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020

GOES-16 1-minute satellite data show that the system near the
Bahamas that we have been monitoring for the past couple of days
has quickly organized into a tropical depression. Very deep
convection has formed near the center, and the 1-min data now shows
enough north and northwest flow to indicate that a well-defined
center is present. The initial wind speed is 30 kt in agreement
with recent ship data.

It is uncertain whether the large burst of convection over the
center will continue and cause the depression to become a tropical
storm before reaching Florida. However, since it is only a 5 kt
increase from the current intensity, it is possible that tropical
storm conditions could still occur along the southeast Florida coast
late tonight, and a tropical storm watch has been issued.
Otherwise, after the system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
steady intensification is expected through the weekend due to
expected light wind shear and very warm water. Some increase in
shear could occur over the northern Gulf of Mexico but that is
uncertain at this time. The first forecast will stay conservative
and only show a peak intensity of 60 kt in 3 to 4 days, but do not
be surprised if that is revised upward on later forecasts once
other models better initialize the depression.

An uncertain estimate of the initial motion is 285/7. Strong
ridging over the southeastern United States is expected to steer the
cyclone to the west-northwest then northwest as a mid-latitude
trough erodes the western side of the ridge over the weekend. The
forecast gets tricky after that because the bulk of the guidance
suggests the trough isn't deep enough to recurve the system, and
instead it gets left behind, moving slowly westward early next week
due to weak ridging over the southern Plains. The NHC forecast is
near the corrected-consensus guidance. The uncertainty in the
track forecast is much larger than normal after 48 hours, as small
changes in the forecast steering flow could result in this system
moving over the northern Gulf Coast faster and to the northeast of
what is shown here. As a result, the risk of seeing direct impacts
from this system extends well outside the cone of uncertainty, even
more so than usual in this case.


1. Heavy rainfall is expected to produce isolated flash flooding
over portions of central and southern Florida and prolong existing
minor river flooding in the Tampa Bay area.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible tonight along the
southeast Florida coast where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.

3. The system is forecast to strengthen to near hurricane intensity
by early next week as it moves across the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico. Dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall
will be possible along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to
southeastern Louisiana this weekend and early next week. Residents
in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and
updates to the forecast, as Storm Surge, Tropical Storm or Hurricane
watches could be issued later tonight and Saturday.


INIT 11/2100Z 25.4N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 25.7N 80.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 26.2N 81.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 27.3N 83.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 28.4N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 29.1N 86.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 29.5N 87.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 30.0N 89.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 31.0N 91.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

Forecaster Blake