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TS Beta Strengthening, Hurricane Watches are now up from Port Aransas, TX to High Island, TX.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 3 (Sally) , Major: 23 (Laura) Florida - Any: 709 (Michael) Major: 709 (Michael)
25.5N 58.5W
Wind: 125MPH
Pres: 952mb
Moving:
Nw at 14 mph
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26.5N 92.4W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 995mb
Moving:
N at 8 mph
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13.1N 36.9W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
Wnw at 17 mph
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40.9N 6.9W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Moving:
Ne at 16 mph
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#1016209 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 AM 12.Sep.2020)
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

Conventional satellite imagery shows that the cyclone`s cloud
pattern has improved during the past several hours and that Paulette
maybe on the cusp of becoming a hurricane very soon. An Advanced
Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) overpass suggested that the
cyclone has a much less vertical tilt and deep convective banding
is developing in the south and east portions of Paulette. The
subjective and objective satellite intensity T-numbers haven`t
changed from 6 hours ago, and the initial intensity is held at 60
kt.

The UW-CIMSS shear analysis reveals some decrease in the shear
magnitude and the upper wind pattern has become much more
diffluent. The ECMWF/FV3 SHIPS and the large-scale models indicate
that the shear will relax soon, and Paulette should become a
hurricane today and further strengthen to a major hurricane early
Tuesday. The SHIPS statistical-dynamical model indicates this
scenario occuring earlier, Monday evening. The official intensity
forecast is nudged slightly higher than the previous one and is
close to the the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach intensity
model. It is also important to note that the average NHC intensity
errors are around 10-15 kt at 48-72 h, the range at which Paulette
will likely be nearest to Bermuda.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/15 kt.
A mid-tropospheric ridge/Bermuda high north of the cyclone should
continue to build across the western Atlantic and steer Paulette
west-northwestward for the next 36 hours. Afterward, a turn toward
the northwest to north-northwest with a significant increase in
forward speed is expected early Monday and Monday evening in
response to an approaching mid-latitude major shortwave trough.
The track guidance suite remains tightly clustered with just some
minor forward speed differences beyond day 3, so it`s quite certain
that Paulette will move near Bermuda early Monday, though it`s a
little too early to specify the exact closest approach. The NHC
track forecast is close to the previous advisory and once again is
based on the various multi-model guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on
Sunday and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge,
and heavy rainfall on Bermuda beginning Sunday night is becoming
increasingly likely. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane
watch have been issued for the island.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to the Greater
Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States
through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 26.8N 56.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 28.0N 58.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 29.2N 60.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 30.3N 62.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 33.5N 65.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 35.2N 63.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 38.2N 56.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 41.5N 49.7W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts