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#TD22 may be named Fri and be a major flood threat. #98L could TD soon. Wilfred then Alpha by end of the week possible.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 2 (Sally) , Major: 22 (Laura) Florida - Any: 708 (Michael) Major: 708 (Michael)
21.6N 55.4W
Wind: 130MPH
Pres: 947mb
Moving:
Nw at 12 mph
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22.9N 94.1W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Moving:
Nne at 6 mph
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#1016247 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 12.Sep.2020)
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020
1500 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES, AND
STORM SURGE WATCHES, COULD BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THAT AREA
LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 81.5W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 81.5W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 81.1W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 26.2N 83.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 27.1N 84.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 28.0N 86.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.7N 87.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 29.3N 88.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 29.8N 89.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 30.6N 89.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 32.0N 89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 81.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH