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#TD22 may be named Fri and be a major flood threat. #98L could TD soon. Wilfred then Alpha by end of the week possible.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 2 (Sally) , Major: 22 (Laura) Florida - Any: 708 (Michael) Major: 708 (Michael)
21.6N 55.4W
Wind: 130MPH
Pres: 947mb
Nw at 12 mph
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22.9N 94.1W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Nne at 6 mph
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#1016251 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:09 AM 12.Sep.2020)

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

Paulette`s structure is going through a bit of an evolution as the
deep-layer shear backs from southwesterly to southeasterly. Most
of the deep convection had waned earlier this morning, but new
convection is beginning to develop near the center as the cyclone
reconstitutes itself. For now, the initial intensity remains 60
kt. An overnight AMSR microwave pass showed that Paulette has
well-defined low-level banding features, and this structure should
allow the cyclone to strengthen as vertical shear falls below 10 kt
during the next 12-24 hours. Strengthening is anticipated to
continue through day 3, and after that time, gradual weakening is
possible due to increasing southwesterly shear. The intensity
guidance has been fairly stable for the past few forecast cycles,
and no significant changes were required to this new NHC intensity
forecast, which lies close to the HCCA model and just a bit above
the intensity consensus. Paulette is likely to be strengthening
while it makes its closest approach to Bermuda in about 48 hours,
and the GFS-based SHIPS and HWRF models each suggest that there is
a possibility of it becoming a major hurricane in 72 hours.

Paulette is moving northwestward (310/13 kt), with a break in the
subtropical ridge located due north of the storm. The ridge may
strengthen briefly over the next day or so, causing Paulette to
move west-northwestward for a short time, but it should resume the
northwestward motion by late Sunday. After that time, an
approaching longwave trough over the northeastern United States
will erode the ridge eastward, causing Paulette to recurve sharply
toward the north and then northeast between days 2 and 3. The
hurricane is then expected to accelerate east-northeastward toward
the north Atlantic on days 4 and 5, embedded within the
mid-latitude flow. The track guidance is well clustered and has
not shown any significant shifts over the past few forecast cycles.
Therefore, the new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous

Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on
Sunday and be near the island Sunday night and Monday. A prolonged
period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected
on Bermuda beginning late Sunday evening, and a hurricane warning
has been issued for the island. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda,
and are expected to spread westward to the east coast of the United
States during the next day or two. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


INIT 12/1500Z 27.5N 57.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 28.5N 59.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 29.5N 61.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 30.8N 63.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 32.4N 64.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 34.2N 64.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 35.8N 61.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 39.0N 54.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 42.0N 47.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

Forecaster Berg