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#TD22 may be named Fri and be a major flood threat. #98L could TD soon. Wilfred then Alpha by end of the week possible.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 2 (Sally) , Major: 22 (Laura) Florida - Any: 708 (Michael) Major: 708 (Michael)
21.6N 55.4W
Wind: 130MPH
Pres: 947mb
Moving:
Nw at 12 mph
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22.9N 94.1W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Moving:
Nne at 6 mph
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#1016266 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:59 PM 12.Sep.2020)
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 81.6W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSE OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to Okaloosa/Walton County Line

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area within the next 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches, and
storm surge watches, could be issued for a portion of that area
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was
located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 81.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a
turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today or tonight. A
west-northwestward or northwestward motion is then expected during
the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center is
forecast to move over the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico
later today and Sunday, and then move over the north-central Gulf of
Mexico Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected over the next
couple of days, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane by late
Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
south and southeast of the center, just to the south of the Florida
Keys.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible across the
southern portion of the Florida peninsula today, especially over
the Florida Keys. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch area in the Florida Panhandle by Sunday night.

RAINFALL: Sally is expected to produce total rainfall of 3 to 6
inches with isolated 8 inch amounts over the Florida Keys through
tonight with 2 to 4 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches
across southern Florida and the western Florida coast to the Tampa
Bay metro area. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding
across southern Florida and prolong high flows and ongoing minor
flooding on rivers across Central Florida.

Sally is expected to produce through Tuesday rainfall of 3 to 6
inches with localized amounts of 8 inches along the Gulf Coast from
the Florida Peninsula to southeast Louisiana and 2 to 4 inches
farther inland over far southern Alabama, Mississippi and southeast
Louisiana. This is expected to be a slow-moving system that will
likely continue to produce heavy rainfall and considerable flooding
near the central Gulf Coast through the middle of next week. Flash,
urban and rapid onset flooding along small streams and minor to
isolated moderate flooding on rivers is likely.

SURF: Swells are expected to spread northward along the
west-central coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle during the
next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible today and tonight over
southern Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch