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TS Beta Strengthening, Hurricane Watches are now up from Port Aransas, TX to High Island, TX.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 3 (Sally) , Major: 23 (Laura) Florida - Any: 709 (Michael) Major: 709 (Michael)
25.5N 58.5W
Wind: 125MPH
Pres: 952mb
Moving:
Nw at 14 mph
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26.5N 92.4W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 995mb
Moving:
N at 8 mph
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13.1N 36.9W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
Wnw at 17 mph
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40.9N 6.9W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Moving:
Ne at 16 mph
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#1016300 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 12.Sep.2020)
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

Convective cloud tops have cooled again as deep convection has
redeveloped since this morning, with an eye-like feature noted in
visible satellite imagery. Since the storm is still being affected
by 20-25 kt of southerly shear, it is assumed that the low-level
center is still displaced to the south of this feature a bit. But
it won`t be surprising if the low- and mid-level centers become
collocated soon as the shear drops significantly during the next
6-12 hours. The initial intensity remains 60 kt, and we should get
a much better handle on Paulette`s maximum winds and structure once
the first Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft reaches the storm this
evening.

The motion remains northwestward (305/13 kt) due to a break in the
subtropical ridge to the north-northeast of Paulette. A
mid-tropospheric high currently centered near the U.S. Mid-Atlantic
coast is expected to slide eastward to the north of Paulette during
the next 24 hours, which should cause the cyclone to turn
west-northwestward tonight. Once the high becomes established over
the central Atlantic, Paulette is expected to recurve around its
western periphery toward a longwave trough over the northeastern
United States Sunday night through Monday night. On days 3 through
5 of the forecast period, Paulette should be accelerating
northeastward toward the north Atlantic, embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies. The new NHC track forecast is embedded
among the very tightly clustered guidance envelope, and no
significant changes were made from the morning forecast.

As stated above, deep-layer shear is expected to be 10 kt or less
between 12 and 48 hours. While ocean waters are plenty warm at
28-29 degrees Celsius, the main possible limiting factor for
strengthening would be mid-level dry air, with the SHIPS model
diagnosing ambient relative humidities of 30-40 percent for the next
couple of days. But, if the shear remains low enough, that dry air
is unlikely to infiltrate the circulation, and Paulette is
therefore expected to intensify during the next 2-3 days. The NHC
intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS, HCCA, and HWRF solutions,
showing a peak intensity just under the major hurricane threshold
in 2-3 days, when Paulette should be starting to move away from
Bermuda.


Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on
Sunday and be near the island Sunday night and Monday. A prolonged
period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected
on Bermuda beginning Sunday evening, and a hurricane warning
is in effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda,
and are expected to spread westward to the east coast of the United
States during the next day or two. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 28.4N 58.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 29.2N 60.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 30.3N 62.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 33.5N 64.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 35.3N 63.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 37.0N 59.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 40.0N 52.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 43.5N 44.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg