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Struggling Beta and now former Alpha that formed but then poofed over Portugal begin the Greek Alphabeta with weaker storms, so far
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 7 (Sally) , Major: 27 (Laura) Florida - Any: 714 (Michael) Major: 714 (Michael)
49.7N 59.2W
Wind: 50MPH
Pres: 975mb
Nne at 31 mph
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30.5N 93.4W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1006mb
Ne at 13 mph
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#1016304 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:09 PM 12.Sep.2020)

Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

The tropical wave and associated area of low pressure that NHC has
been tracking since it emerged off of Africa a couple of days ago
has become sufficiently organized to be designated as a tropical
depression. A curved band of deep convection developed early this
morning and persisted just to the west of a well-defined low level
circulation throughout the day. An earlier ASCAT overpass showed
that 25-30 kt winds over the northwestern portion of the
circulation, which is the basis for the initial intensity being
set at 30 kt.

The depression has a rather large circulation, with the radius of
maximum winds nearly 100 n mi from the center and the overall wind
field appearing to extend outward over 300 n mi. The environment
surrounding the cyclone over the next 36 h is characterized by
moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear and plenty of warm water
and atmospheric moisture. These factors are supportive of gradual
strengthening, however, due to the large size of the system, it may
take some time for it to consolidate. The NHC intensity forecast
shows only slight strengthening through 36 h as the system
consolidates, and that portion of the forecast is well below the
intensity guidance. By early next week, the wind shear is expected
to decrease to under 10 kt and a faster rate of intensification is
indicated from 36-96 h in anticipation of the cyclone having a
better structure to take advantage of the lower shear. After 96 h
the intensity is held steady as northwesterly shear is forecast to
increase while the system encounters some slightly drier air and
moves over lower oceanic heat content. The NHC intensity forecast
beyond 36 h starts well below most of the guidance, and trends close
to the IVCN/ICON later on in the forecast period.

The depression is moving toward the west-northwest at 8 kt, steered
by a mid-level ridge to its north. This ridge is forecast to build
westward over the next few days, which should result in a continued
general west-northwest motion, perhaps at a slightly faster forward
speed early next week. By the middle of next week, a weakness is
forecast to develop in the ridge, partially due to interaction of
Paulette and a mid- to- upper level trough over the northern
Atlantic at that time, and the cyclone should turn to the northwest
into this weakness. Overall, track guidance from the global and
regional models is in decent agreement on this scenario, and the
NHC forecast is between the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the
TVCN multimodel consensus.


INIT 12/2100Z 11.4N 33.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 11.5N 34.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 12.1N 36.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 12.8N 38.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 13.3N 40.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 14.0N 42.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 15.0N 44.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 17.7N 47.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 21.0N 49.7W 80 KT 90 MPH

Forecaster Latto