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#TD22 may be named Fri and be a major flood threat. #98L could TD soon. Wilfred then Alpha by end of the week possible.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 2 (Sally) , Major: 22 (Laura) Florida - Any: 708 (Michael) Major: 708 (Michael)
21.6N 55.4W
Wind: 130MPH
Pres: 947mb
Moving:
Nw at 12 mph
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22.9N 94.1W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Moving:
Nne at 6 mph
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#1016321 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:51 PM 12.Sep.2020)
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
800 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

...HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING PAULETTE...
...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS THAT COULD MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA BY SUNDAY
EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 59.2W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Tropical-storm-force winds that
make outside preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to
reach Bermuda in about 24 hours. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 28.7 North, longitude 59.2 West. Paulette is moving toward
the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west-northwest or
northwest motion is expected through Sunday night. A turn toward the
north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday,
followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over
Bermuda Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. The Hurricane Hunter plane has not yet completed its pattern
and should provide more information about winds associated with
Paulette during the next couple of hours. The tropical storm is
forecast to strengthen and will likely become a hurricane tonight.
Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it is near
Bermuda Sunday night and Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches)
based on reports from the reconnaissance aircraft.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by
Sunday night or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach
tropical storm strength by late Sunday, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette is expected to bring periods of heavy rain to
Bermuda Sunday through Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 3 to
6 inches likely.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda and
will continue to spread westward to the east coast of the United
States over the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky