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#TD22 may be named Fri and be a major flood threat. #98L could TD soon. Wilfred then Alpha by end of the week possible.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 2 (Sally) , Major: 22 (Laura) Florida - Any: 708 (Michael) Major: 708 (Michael)
21.6N 55.4W
Wind: 130MPH
Pres: 947mb
Moving:
Nw at 12 mph
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22.9N 94.1W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Moving:
Nne at 6 mph
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#1016346 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 12.Sep.2020)
TCDAT2

Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft made multiple passes
through the center of Paulette earlier this evening. The plane
reported max 850-mb flight-level winds of 78 kt and believable SFMR
winds of 58 kt. A dropsonde in the southeast quadrant measured
adjusted mean boundary layer winds of just over 60 kt while multiple
center drops revealed that the minimum pressure is now down to 981
mb. Taken together, these observations support an intensity of 65
kt, making Paulette the 6th hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic season.

The plane found the Paulette has turned west-northwestward and is
nearly exactly on the previous forecast track. With no major changes
in the track guidance either, there is no reason to make any changes
of note to the previous NHC track forecast at this time. A mid-level
ridge building to the north of Paulette should keep the hurricane
moving generally west-northwestward for the next day or so. The
ridge and a mid-level trough to the west should then slide eastward
by early Monday, causing Paulette to slow and turn northward, moving
very near or over Bermuda Monday morning. Paulette is then forecast
to turn northeastward and accelerate in that direction by Tuesday.
The NHC forecast remains in the middle of the tightly clustered
guidance suite at all forecast hours.

Paulette appears to be getting more vertically aligned as the shear
that has affected the cyclone for the past several days slowly
decreases. Further intensification appears likely through early
Monday given the warm SSTs below Paulette and favorable upper-air
environment that is expected to develop around the cyclone. Dry air
in the surrounding environment could be a limiting factor, but all
of the intensity guidance continues to indicate that Paulette will
be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late Sunday and
early Monday. Further intensification will then be possible for
another day or so after the hurricane begins to move away from
Bermuda and it could be near major hurricane strength by the middle
of next week. The NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the
latest intensity guidance throughout the forecast period.


Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on Sunday
and will be near the island Sunday night and Monday. A prolonged
period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected
on Bermuda beginning Sunday evening, and a hurricane warning is in
effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 28.9N 59.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 29.7N 61.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 31.0N 63.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 32.6N 65.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 34.5N 64.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 36.2N 61.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 37.7N 57.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 41.0N 49.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 43.5N 42.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky