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Struggling Beta and now former Alpha that formed but then poofed over Portugal begin the Greek Alphabeta with weaker storms, so far
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 7 (Sally) , Major: 27 (Laura) Florida - Any: 714 (Michael) Major: 714 (Michael)
49.7N 59.2W
Wind: 50MPH
Pres: 975mb
Nne at 31 mph
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30.5N 93.4W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1006mb
Ne at 13 mph
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#1016386 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 AM 13.Sep.2020)

Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

The depression remains poorly organized and elongated from
northeast-to-southwest. Convection mainly consists of small curved
but fragmented bands in the southern semicircle. Satellite intensity
estimates remain unchanged as a result, so the initial intensity
will also remain unchanged at 30 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 295/09 kt. The ridge to the north
and east of the tropical depression is forecast to remain intact
for the next 5 days, keeping the cyclone on a general
west-northwestward track through 72 hours, followed by a
northwestward motion toward the weakness in the ridge on days 4 and
5. The latest NHC guidance remains in very good agreement on this
developing track scenario and, thus, no significant changes were
made to the previous advisory track.

Due to the negative influence of the long low-level westerly fetch
associated with the monsoon trough that the cyclone is embedded
within, it will likely another 24 hours or so for the low-level
wind field to become better organized. However, once that occurs,
environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for steady
strengthening on days 2-4, followed by gradual weakening on ay 5
due to increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. The new NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory forecast, and
lies near the upper end of the intensity guidance envelope.


INIT 13/0900Z 12.2N 35.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 12.6N 36.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 13.2N 39.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 13.7N 41.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 14.4N 43.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 15.3N 45.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 16.3N 46.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 19.0N 49.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 21.5N 51.8W 85 KT 100 MPH

Forecaster Stewart