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TS Beta Strengthening, Hurricane Watches are now up from Port Aransas, TX to High Island, TX.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 3 (Sally) , Major: 23 (Laura) Florida - Any: 709 (Michael) Major: 709 (Michael)
25.5N 58.5W
Wind: 125MPH
Pres: 952mb
Moving:
Nw at 14 mph
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26.5N 92.4W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 995mb
Moving:
N at 8 mph
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13.1N 36.9W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
Wnw at 17 mph
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40.9N 6.9W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Moving:
Ne at 16 mph
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#1016437 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 AM 13.Sep.2020)
TCDAT2

Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Paulette this
morning found peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 92 kt, which reduces
to around 75 kt at the surface. However, around that same time the
peak winds measured by the SFMR instrument on board the aircraft
were only 58 kt. It is possible that the stronger winds suggested by
the flight-level values were not reaching the surface at that
location. Later on in the flight, the SFMR measured 64-kt winds in
the northwestern quadrant. Since there has been no notable change to
the structure of the hurricane since the aircraft was in the system
a few hours ago, the initial intensity is being held at 70 kt and is
a compromise of those two different peak values measured by the
aircraft.

Infrared satellite imagery has been showing some dry air intrusion
over the eastern portion of the circulation, causing a break in the
eyewall there over the past few hours. There is currently deep
convection firing around the remainder of the eyewall, and therefore
it is anticipated the dry air will be worked out of the system soon.
Very low wind shear and warm waters will support strengthening over
the next couple of days, and Paulette is expected to be a dangerous
hurricane as it nears Bermuda Monday morning. The window for
strengthening should continue for another 12-24 h after the cyclone
passes Bermuda, and Paulette could become a major hurricane during
that time. After 48 h, vertical wind shear is forecast to rapidly
increase. After 72 h, Paulette is expected to cross the 26 degree C
SST isotherm, and by 120 h those SSTs will be near 22 degrees C.
The NHC forecast shows a weakening trend beginning after 48 h due to
the negative environmental factors. By 120 h, the global models
suggest that Paulette will have completed a transition to an
extratropical cyclone. The only change to the NHC intensity
forecast from the previous advisory was a slight upward adjustment
over the first few days due to the increase in strength found by
the aircraft this morning. This forecast is in between the LGEM and
HFIP corrected consensus, HCCA.

Paulette is now moving northwestward at 12 kt, to the southwest of a
mid-level ridge. This motion should continue until just after the
cyclone passes Bermuda. Later on Monday, the hurricane should turn
north, then on Monday night northeastward, as it rounds the
periphery of the ridge. After turning northeastward, the cyclone
is expected to accelerate as it gets picked up in the mid-latitude
flow ahead of an approaching mid- to upper-level trough. Later on
in the forecast period, a slower eastward motion is indicated once
the aforementioned trough bypasses the cyclone. The latest NHC
forecast track is little changed from the previous one through 48 h
and lies in the middle of the latest global and regional track
model guidance. Beyond 48 h, the NHC forecast is a little faster
than the previous one, and lies near the tightly clustered consensus
track guidance. On the forecast track, tropical storm conditions
should reach Bermuda by this evening, with hurricane force winds
arriving there overnight.

Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane today
and will be near the island tonight and Monday. A prolonged
period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected
on Bermuda beginning this evening, and a hurricane warning is in
effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 29.9N 61.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 30.9N 63.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 32.8N 64.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 35.0N 63.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 37.0N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 39.1N 55.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 41.4N 49.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 43.9N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 44.0N 36.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto