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Struggling Beta and now former Alpha that formed but then poofed over Portugal begin the Greek Alphabeta with weaker storms, so far
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 7 (Sally) , Major: 27 (Laura) Florida - Any: 714 (Michael) Major: 714 (Michael)
49.7N 59.2W
Wind: 50MPH
Pres: 975mb
Nne at 31 mph
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30.5N 93.4W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1006mb
Ne at 13 mph
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#1016440 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 13.Sep.2020)

Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

Convective banding features are generally limited to the southern
semicircle of the circulation with the center exposed just to the
north. A recent ASCAT pass indicated that the strongest winds--up
to 30 kt--were primarily located in the southerly and southwesterly
monsoonal flow trailing the depression, although some stronger
winds are beginning to develop just west of the center. Light-to-
moderate northerly shear is currently affecting the depression, but
this shear is expected to decrease during the next 24-48 hours. In
addition, global model fields indicate that the cyclone should
become increasingly separated from the ITCZ/monsoon trough. Steady
strengthening is anticipated for much of the forecast period, and
the NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA aid and the
IVCN intensity consensus. This new forecast is a little higher
than the previous prediction, especially on days 3 through 5.
There are two main points that suggest this forecast could
potentially go even higher in later forecast cycles: 1. the HWRF
model shows more significant strengthening at the latter part of
the period, bringing the system to major hurricane strength, and 2.
the SHIPS Rapid Intensification guidance indicates that there is a
50-50 chance that the system will strengthen by at least 65 kt over
the next 3 days, which is 9-10 times higher than the climatological

The depression is moving west-northwestward (290/9 kt) to the south
of a large mid-tropospheric high centered over the central
subtropical Atlantic. This feature should continue to drive the
cyclone westward or west-northwestward for the next 2-3 days.
After that time, the mid-level high is expected to shift northward
and elongate, and the potentially intensifying hurricane is likely
to acquire more poleward motion, moving northwestward and a little
slower on days 3-5. Most of the track models are clustered close
together, except for the HWRF which has a trajectory farther to the
south and west. The new NHC track forecast has been shifted a bit
westward compared to the previous prediction, close to the
GFS-ECMWF consensus but not as far to the left as the latest TVCA
and HCCA solutions.


INIT 13/1500Z 12.3N 36.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 12.8N 38.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 13.3N 40.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 13.7N 43.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 14.4N 45.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 15.3N 46.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 16.3N 48.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 19.0N 51.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 22.0N 53.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

Forecaster Berg