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Struggling Beta and now former Alpha that formed but then poofed over Portugal begin the Greek Alphabeta with weaker storms, so far
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 7 (Sally) , Major: 27 (Laura) Florida - Any: 714 (Michael) Major: 714 (Michael)
49.7N 59.2W
Wind: 50MPH
Pres: 975mb
Nne at 31 mph
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30.5N 93.4W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1006mb
Ne at 13 mph
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#1016486 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 PM 13.Sep.2020)

Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

The depression`s center is a little closer to the deep convection
compared to this morning, but the overall structure has not changed
significantly. Based on this morning`s ASCAT pass, and recent
Dvorak estimates of T2.0 from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity
remains 30 kt. The northerly shear over the system has been
analyzed to have decreased since this morning (now around 10 kt),
which is probably why the center is closer to the convection. The
shear is forecast to decrease further, and once the depression
becomes more detached from the ITCZ/monsoon trough, it is expected
to go through a significant phase of strengthening as it heads west
toward higher oceanic heat content and a more unstable atmosphere.
As discussed this morning, the GFS-based SHIPS guidance indicates
that there is a 50-50 chance that the depression will strengthen
by at least 65 kt during the next 3 days, which is 10 times higher
than the climatological mean. And, all three regional hurricane
models (HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC), as well as the HCCA aid, show
the cyclone becoming a major hurricane by the end of the forecast
period. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted
upward and now explicitly shows major hurricane strength on days 4
and 5.

The motion remains west-northwestward (290/10 kt), with the
depression located south of a large mid-level high centered over the
central Atlantic. This feature should continue driving the system
westward or west-northwestward for the next 2 days. After that
time, the ridge is expected to shift northward, causing the
potentially strengthening hurricane to move a little slower toward
the northwest. Most of the track models are clustered close
together, although the HWRF remains a southern outlier and the ECMWF
model is a little slower and on the right side of the envelope. The
new NHC track forecast has not moved much from the previous
prediction and now lies closest to the HFIP Corrected Consensus.


INIT 13/2100Z 12.7N 37.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 13.2N 39.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 13.6N 42.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 14.1N 44.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 14.7N 46.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 15.6N 47.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 16.8N 49.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 19.5N 51.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 22.5N 54.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

Forecaster Berg