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Struggling Beta and now former Alpha that formed but then poofed over Portugal begin the Greek Alphabeta with weaker storms, so far
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 7 (Sally) , Major: 27 (Laura) Florida - Any: 714 (Michael) Major: 714 (Michael)
49.7N 59.2W
Wind: 50MPH
Pres: 975mb
Nne at 31 mph
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30.5N 93.4W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1006mb
Ne at 13 mph
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#1016539 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 PM 13.Sep.2020)

Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

The depression continues to march west-northwestward with little
change in its structure so far. Scatterometer data near 00Z revealed
that the system is still elongated southwest to northeast with
maximum winds near 30 kt. Convection has become a little more
concentrated to the southwest of the depression`s center during the
past few hours, so perhaps this is a sign that it will start getting
organized soon.

As long as the depression remains disorganized, only minimal
strengthening is likely. However, once the system comes together,
all indications are that it will strengthen, perhaps significantly
so. The cyclone still has several days to strengthen within a
low-shear/high-SST environment, and even the global models
explicitly forecast the system to become a hurricane. The NHC
intensity forecast is unchanged and still brings the depression to
major hurricane strength by the middle of the week. Some of the
dynamical hurricane models indicate it could strengthen faster than
that, so this forecast could wind up being conservative.

The depression appears to be moving generally west-northwestward. A
large mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic should keep the
cyclone on this general heading for the next couple of days. After
that, the ridge is forecast to move north and east, and the
strengthening cyclone should turn toward the northwest in response.
While the exact details vary from model to model, all of the
dynamical track guidance supports this general scenario. The NHC
forecast is based heavily on the model consensus and lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope.


INIT 14/0300Z 13.0N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 13.5N 41.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 13.9N 43.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 14.4N 45.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 15.0N 47.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 16.0N 48.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 17.2N 50.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 20.0N 52.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 23.0N 55.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

Forecaster Zelinsky